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Game Thread tCun at tOSU, THE GAME, Sat. Nov. 30, 12pm ET, FOX

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Differential Statistical Analysis for The Game 2024​


Ohio State averages 37.82 ppg
Ohio State scores 58.3% more than their opponents give up to everyone else
Those numbers are very good, but not elite (by Buckeye standards).

The Cheaters Up North Towards Saginaw average 23.09 ppg
They score 5.5% more than their opponents give up to everyone else
They would not have come out above average before their game against the Wildcats (who they caught one week after being mauled by the Buckeyes). But that number is a shade above average, even if it is 1/10th of the Buckeyes Differential Scoring Offense.

The Silver Bullets lead the nation at 10.73 ppg
They allow only 39.4% as many points as their opponents score on everyone else. There is one other team this century that is below the 40% mark (2011 Alabama). Yes, the Oregon game, at 90.9%, was the worst Differential Scoring Defense number of the year by a large margin, and the outing against Nebraska was the second worst at 68%. Every other outing this year was below 44%. Without the inconsistency, this would be the best defense of this century by a mile.

If you don't mind I will use acronyms for previously defined terms from here on out.

The CUNTS scoring defense sits at 21.45, so they've got that going for them.
Their DSD is 78.5%. That's good, not great.

The differential numbers can be combined with the traditional numbers to give a rough prediction for the score of The Game.

DSA "prediction"

Ohio State 30-34 points
CUNTS 9-11 points

But there is some context for these numbers that is very important this year, and that is the difference between how close each team's games have been.

The Buckeyes had a run of three straight 1 score games just at and after the mid-point of the season (Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State). All of Ohio State's other games, all 8 of them, were decided by more than 3 scores. That amounts to a lot of time when the Buckeyes were running clock and playing backups. In other words, the Buckeyes posted those remarkable DSA numbers with the pedal a fair distance from the floor for much of the game (for 8 of their 11 games).

The CUNTS on the other hand had ONE game this season decided by more than 3 scores, and that was the game they just played against the Buckeye-bruised Wildcats. Their biggest win apart from that was a 20 pointer over Fresno State in the opener; their biggest loss was 21 points vs Oregon. Every other game they played was a four quarter contest. The point here is that the CUNTS posted their numbers with the pedal to the floor for a majority of their games (OK, Texas coasted against them, but the CUNTS were really trying (and failing)).

So the prediction above comes from numbers produced by the CUNTS trying as hard as they can and the Buckeyes playing backups and running clock.

My real prediction then?

Hang 100
 
Upvote 0
DaddyBigBucks said:

Differential Statistical Analysis for The Game 2024​


Ohio State averages 37.82 ppg
Ohio State scores 58.3% more than their opponents give up to everyone else
Those numbers are very good, but not elite (by Buckeye standards).

The Cheaters Up North Towards Saginaw average 23.09 ppg
They score 5.5% more than their opponents give up to everyone else
They would not have come out above average before their game against the Wildcats (who they caught one week after being mauled by the Buckeyes). But that number is a shade above average, even if it is 1/10th of the Buckeyes Differential Scoring Offense.

The Silver Bullets lead the nation at 10.73 ppg
They allow only 39.4% as many points as their opponents score on everyone else. There is one other team this century that is below the 40% mark (2011 Alabama). Yes, the Oregon game, at 90.9%, was the worst Differential Scoring Defense number of the year by a large margin, and the outing against Nebraska was the second worst at 68%. Every other outing this year was below 44%. Without the inconsistency, this would be the best defense of this century by a mile.

If you don't mind I will use acronyms for previously defined terms from here on out.

The CUNTS scoring defense sits at 21.45, so they've got that going for them.
Their DSD is 78.5%. That's good, not great.

The differential numbers can be combined with the traditional numbers to give a rough prediction for the score of The Game.

DSA "prediction"

Ohio State 30-34 points
CUNTS 9-11 points

But there is some context for these numbers that is very important this year, and that is the difference between how close each team's games have been.

The Buckeyes had a run of three straight 1 score games just at and after the mid-point of the season (Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State). All of Ohio State's other games, all 8 of them, were decided by more than 3 scores. That amounts to a lot of time when the Buckeyes were running clock and playing backups. In other words, the Buckeyes posted those remarkable DSA numbers with the pedal a fair distance from the floor for much of the game (for 8 of their 11 games).

The CUNTS on the other hand had ONE game this season decided by more than 3 scores, and that was the game they just played against the Buckeye-bruised Wildcats. Their biggest win apart from that was a 20 pointer over Fresno State in the opener; their biggest loss was 21 points vs Oregon. Every other game they played was a four quarter contest. The point here is that the CUNTS posted their numbers with the pedal to the floor for a majority of their games (OK, Texas coasted against them, but the CUNTS were really trying (and failing)).

So the prediction above comes from numbers produced by the CUNTS trying as hard as they can and the Buckeyes playing backups and running clock.

My real prediction then?

Hang 100
Click to expand...
So 34-10 which would be right in line with the Vegas spread.
 
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Feeling the most relaxed/comfortable about this game as I have in many years. The blueprint is clear - attack and pressure their offense, our corners can cover and this defense will feast. After the Indiana game and what we saw when we pinned our ears back should make us feel incredibly confident.

They have talent on the DL - great, Will can throw for 300+ and Emeka will get his moment.

The only thing I'm worried about is how dirty they'll play knowing they have nothing to play for ... another alligator roll to an ankle is likely incoming.
 
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They aren’t going to be able to drive the field against our D we just need to avoid the bonehead mistakes that give them those long runs.

Someone needs to be glued to Loveland at all times too. Don’t want to see him open all day like he’s seemed to be against about everyone else this year.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
They aren’t going to be able to drive the field against our D we just need to avoid the bonehead mistakes that give them those long runs.

Someone needs to be glued to Loveland at all times too. Don’t want to see him open all day like he’s seemed to be against about everyone else this year.
Click to expand...

Sonny should be a great fit for that role, I'm sure Hancock will get some time in there as well. This defense is really set up well to shut them down in every possible sense. scUM is going to have to dust off the trick plays in this one.
 
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bigdog3300 said:
Sonny should be a great fit for that role, I'm sure Hancock will get some time in there as well. This defense is really set up well to shut them down in every possible sense. scUM is going to have to dust off the trick plays in this one.
Click to expand...

I think they already mostly put all the Mickey Mouse plays on film to beat Sparty and not get totally destroyed by Oregon. I hope we are well prepared for any of them
 
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bigdog3300 said:
Feeling the most relaxed/comfortable about this game as I have in many years. The blueprint is clear - attack and pressure their offense, our corners can cover and this defense will feast. After the Indiana game and what we saw when we pinned our ears back should make us feel incredibly confident.

They have talent on the DL - great, Will can throw for 300+ and Emeka will get his moment.

The only thing I'm worried about is how dirty they'll play knowing they have nothing to play for ... another alligator roll to an ankle is likely incoming.
Click to expand...
I’m not concerned about them playing dirty to be honest.
buckeyemania11 said:
They aren’t going to be able to drive the field against our D we just need to avoid the bonehead mistakes that give them those long runs.

Someone needs to be glued to Loveland at all times too. Don’t want to see him open all day like he’s seemed to be against about everyone else this year.
Click to expand...
That’s really the game isn’t it? Just avoid the stupid mistakes and force them to somehow be consistent on offense.

They don’t have the OL, the skill or especially the QB to put drives together. So really it’s just don’t give up the explosive plays.

Really is just avoid the bad mistakes and stop the run.
 
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