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SEC (It just means more.. even its losses are wins)

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BB73 said:
I rank the top programs based on all-time performance every year. At the end of 2004, I had aTm at #23; at the end of last year they were still #23. They were passed by Clemson but had Ole Miss drop below them. So they haven't changed their profile one way or another in the last 15 years.

Here's a link that Stassen uses to track preseason vs final rankings to cumulatively track which teams are consistently overrated or underrated. Texas A&M shows up as slightly overrated (about the same as tOSU) over the last 30 years, and their tracking hasn't changed much at all since they joined the SEC. The most consistently overrated teams in the preseason are USC Trojans, Florida State, Texas, and TTUN.
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The problem with this is that it doesnt account for the baked-in Confirmation Bias.
Just last year, final AP had

12) Texas A&M 9-4
13) Kentucky 10-3
14) Mississippi State 8-5
15) Auburn 8-5

I'd conjecture that 23 Northwestern and 25 Iowa were closer to where those 4 should have been ranked.

People make sure their preseason favorites dont fall too far for too long. Even if they drop from top25, theyre first in line to get added back in for beating Vanderbilt or Rutgers.
 
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BB73 said:
Joel Klatt pointed out this tidbit this week:

Bama's opponents have a winning percentage of .391, which is the lowest among all Power-5 teams.
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Meh. Klatt’s ignoring the tremendous impact Bama has on it’s opponents. Many, of course, lose at least one -and often more- of their games before they play Bama by trying to prep for the Bama game instead of fully focusing on their then current opponent. Everyone knows that nobody can beat Bama with just one week of practice. Even adding a bye week is not enough.

And Klatt also skips over the post Bama game issues that Bama causes for their gridiron victims. Besides typically losing several players due to physical injuries, the Post Bama Traumatic Stress Disorder (PBTSD) casualties just wrecks their opponents’ rosters for weeks or longer. It’s science!
 
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BB73 said:
Joel Klatt pointed out this tidbit this week:

Bama's opponents have a winning percentage of .391, which is the lowest among all Power-5 teams.
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Which is why, I think, ESPN had the FPI crew come up with that Strength of Opponent Quality (or whatever the fuck) pseudo science/stat thingy a couple weeks back.

They've got some selling to do and it's a hell of a lot easier to make up new facts that support your narrative than just try to sell the truth.
 
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This reminds me, I have just finished and am now ready to unveil my top ten ranking of teams according to their Record of Opponents Records of Strength of Record Quality of Schedule.

1. Alabama 7,001,261 (Note, this is an ALL TIME best number on this metric.)
2. LSU 400,001
3. Alabama's practice squad 399,998
4. Auburn 322,109
5. Texas A&M 226,110
6. South Carolina 225,010
7. Mississippi State 119,659
8. Western Carolina 115,211
9. Duke 107,225
10. Tennessee 106,522

In case you were wondering, on this metric Ohio State comes in with a paltry 11 points and ranked 132 out of 130 (they're behind Samford, who will be Auburn's Chicken-shit Saturday opponent and which has a score of 103,488.) Also note, Alabama's practice squad's performance in practice couldn't be ignored, though they're not actually their own FBS team.
 
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It amuses me, they all have these stats ... but if the stats don't have predictive power, they're basically worthless.
I notice they seem to delete their rankings for prior season. Would be interesting to compare their FPI from preseason all the way through and see how well it actually predicts W-L for all P5 schools.
 
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kujirakira said:
It amuses me, they all have these stats ... but if the stats don't have predictive power, they're basically worthless.
I notice they seem to delete their rankings for prior season. Would be interesting to compare their FPI from preseason all the way through and see how well it actually predicts W-L for all P5 schools.
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How do you have a computer predictor come up with preseason rankings when there is no data for the new season. Would be my main question. It almost has to be all based on bias and past outcome assumptions.......because everyone knows the previous season of college football always rolls exactly over into the next one.
 
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