Rose Bowl possibilities

[lvbuckeye]

I thought beating Iowa and losing to Michigan was the plan under Operation Lockup RRod through 2019

it was the plan of John F Cooper from 1988 to 2000. 1993-98 hurt the worst.

 

[Redhawk]

Losing to THIS Michigan team and THIS Michigan coach would be the greatest disaster in the last century of The Game. Forget that. Lose the Rose or lose to Iowa and there's not 1/100th the shame that there would be in losing to scUM. The worse they are, the more the game matters.

Not to mention that "The Game" this year would forever be known as "The Throwback Game" where a victory would grant Michigan a bowl game and cost us the outright Big Ten Championship. Worst case scenario, it could also ignite momentum within their program, starting something that could be too painful for any single Rose Bowl appearance to soothe. No win can or would outshine a win against Michigan. To even suggest otherwise is obscene, IMHO. Don't forget what it means to be a Buckeye. Step on their necks.

 

[methomps]

I think you mean ASU. Plus wouldn't Oregon State then win the tie breaker due to beating 2 of the 3 like teams?

per the link provided by BB73

Sorry, that should have been

Arizona (beat Oregon State and Stanford, lost to Oregon and Washington)

Zona still wins the tiebreaker since the survive the 4-team tiebreaker (both Zona and Oregon State 2-1) and then win the head-to-head against Oregon State.

 

[BB73]

Sorry, that should have been



Zona still wins the tiebreaker since the survive the 4-team tiebreaker (both Zona and Oregon State 2-1) and then win the head-to-head against Oregon State.

I've already edited my original post for that - feel free to cut and paste that on wearesc if you want to post the info there.

 

[Buckin Crazy]

I want another shot at USC

 

[Jake]

I know a lot of people want USC again but I wouldn't mind playing someone different, rather than USC 3 times in 16 months. Been there, done that.

I think the last time we played Stanford some guy named Elway was their QB. We beat Oregon in the 80s when I was a student - their QB was Bill Musgrave, now an OC in the NFL. Those were both regular season affairs. Our last Rose versus the Cardinal was 1971, we lost to Jim Plunkett, and we beat Oregon in 1958, so both would be "new" to many of us.

Arizona is the only P10 team yet to reach the Rose and with Stoops as their HC it would definitely be a big game in the Youngstown area.

The only team I care about being in the Rose is our Bucks. Two wins from Pasadena!

 

[Woody1968]

I know a lot of people want USC again but I wouldn't mind playing someone different, rather than USC 3 times in 16 months. Been there, done that.

I think the last time we played Stanford some guy named Elway was their QB. We beat Oregon in the 80s when I was a student - their QB was Bill Musgrave, now an OC in the NFL. Those were both regular season affairs. Our last Rose versus the Cardinal was 1971, we lost to Jim Plunkett, and we beat Oregon in 1958, so both would be "new" to many of us.

Arizona is the only P10 team yet to reach the Rose and with Stoops as their HC it would definitely be a big game in the Youngstown area.

The only team I care about being in the Rose is our Bucks. Two wins from Pasadena!

I agree, let's wait until we wrap it up before we start speculating. But it would be nice for Arizona to lose their first Rose Bowl.

 

[Jagdaddy]

Losing to THIS Michigan team and THIS Michigan coach would be the greatest disaster in the last century of The Game. Forget that. Lose the Rose or lose to Iowa and there's not 1/100th the shame that there would be in losing to scUM. The worse they are, the more the game matters.

1969. The tie in 1973. 1995. That is all. The 1995 game to me was Cooper's worst loss at Ohio State because that year OSU was finally back, and they pissed it away, and, IMO, put their psychological demons on steroids for the game in 1996 and 1997.

 

[NFBuck]

it was the plan of John F Cooper from 1988 to 2000. 1993-98 hurt the worst.

God yes, they all hurt, but 1995 and '96 were soul crushing. Goddamn was I a miserable prick for weeks after those two games.

 

[Woody1968]

1969. The tie in 1973. 1995. That is all. The 1995 game to me was Cooper's worst loss at Ohio State because that year OSU was finally back, and they pissed it away, and, IMO, put their psychological demons on steroids for the game in 1996 and 1997.

1995 was bad, but IMO 1996 was worse, as we Probably would have won the National Championship that year. 1997 was bad, but tsun was higher ranked and on the way to a share of the title, and already had clinched the Rose, if I recall.

 

[BrutusBobcat]

Working through the various scenarios in the Pac-10 after tonight's games, here's what each of the four two loss or less contenders need:

Oregon - Just win, baby
Stanford - Beat Cal, then needs Arizona to beat Oregon, Oregon to beat Oregon State and USC or ASU to beat Arizona
Arizona - Just win, baby
Oregon State - Win out, plus any Arizona loss

The everyone-loses-three scenario:

USC beats Arizona and UCLA
Cal beats Stanford
Arizona beats Oregon
Oregon State beats Oregon
Oregon State loses to Washington State (highly unlikely)

That would leave Oregon, Arizona, Cal, Stanford, USC, and Oregon State in a six way tie with three conference losses each.

Scenarios based on the Arizona-Oregon outcome:

Oregon wins, then the Oregon State game is the P-10 title game
Arizona wins, then needs wins over ASU and USC to clinch; any loss makes the BCS bid between Stanford and Oregon State

Should be a fun couple of weeks. The tiebreakers are really interesting and complicated since the various top teams have beaten each other. Oregon is in great shape, but absolutely cannot afford a loss at Arizona.

 

[scott91575]

Working through the various scenarios in the Pac-10 after tonight's games, here's what each of the four two loss or less contenders need:

Oregon - Just win, baby
Stanford - Beat Cal, then needs Arizona to beat Oregon, Oregon to beat Oregon State and USC or ASU to beat Arizona
Arizona - Just win, baby
Oregon State - Win out, plus any Arizona loss

The everyone-loses-three scenario:

USC beats Arizona and UCLA
Cal beats Stanford
Arizona beats Oregon
Oregon State beats Oregon
Oregon State loses to Washington State (highly unlikely)

That would leave Oregon, Arizona, Cal, Stanford, USC, and Oregon State in a six way tie with three conference losses each.

Scenarios based on the Arizona-Oregon outcome:

Oregon wins, then the Oregon State game is the P-10 title game
Arizona wins, then needs wins over ASU and USC to clinch; any loss makes the BCS bid between Stanford and Oregon State

Should be a fun couple of weeks. The tiebreakers are really interesting and complicated since the various top teams have beaten each other. Oregon is in great shape, but absolutely cannot afford a loss at Arizona.

Technically if WSU beats Oregon State then Stanford does have a scenario where Oregon beats Arizona and loses to Oregon State while Stanford beats Cal and they are in the Rose Bowl (although that scenario is highly unlikely). Other than that, nice rundown.

 

[JXC]

According to the computers, which usually are pretty accurate on what the lines are going to be.

Oregon would be favored by 2.5 over Ohio State
Ohio State would be favored by 2 over Stanford
Ohio State would be favored by 6 over Oregon State
Ohio State would be favored by 6 over Arizona

Just some food for thought.

Also...using this system, Ohio State would be favored by 15 at Michigan. So the fact that the line is 12 now makes sense...since the line is always closer to 0 in rivalry games then it would be if it weren't a rivalry.

 

[BB73]

Oregon is the only team with 1 conference loss, and Arizona, Stanford and Oregon State all have two losses. Two-way ties are broken by the head-to-head result, and 3-way ties use head-to-head if 1 team beat both of the others. The only possibility of a 4-way or more tie is if Oregon State loses at Washington State, and Oregon loses their last two games. That's unlikely enough where I won't go into those possibilities.

Here are the top 4 teams, their losses, wins against the other teams in the top-4, and remaining Pac Ten games.

Oregon - Stanford(L), plays at Ariz and hosts Oreg St
Arizona - Oregon St(W), Stanford(W), Wash(L), Cal(L), hosts Oregon, at Ariz St, and at USC
Stanford - Oreg St(L), Arizona(L), Oregon(W), hosts Cal
Oreg St - Ariz(L), Stan(W), USC(L), plays at Wash St and at Oregon

3-way tie among 2-loss teams (tie-break winner bolded)
Oregon-Ariz-Stan (based on head-to-head)
Oregon-Stan-Oreg St (based on head-to-head)
Ariz-Stan-Oreg St (based on head-to-head)

Oregon-Ariz-Oreg St is not possible since Oregon still plays both of them.

Oregon goes:
IF (they beat Arizona and Oreg St)
OR (they lose to Arizona, beat Oreg St, Cal beats Stan, WSU beats Oreg St and Ariz loses to either USC or ASU)
OR (they beat Ariz, lose to Oreg St, Cal beats Stan, and WSU beats Oreg St)

So either a Stanford win over Cal or an Oreg St win at WSU forces Oregon to win out, or they'll lose a tiebreaker.

Arizona goes:
If they win all 3 games (Oregon, at ASU, at USC).

If they lose to Oregon, they're eliminated.

If they beat Oregon and then lose a game, they need Cal over Stanford, WSU over Oreg St, and Oreg St over Oregon in order to get into the 3-loss tiebreaker.

Oregon State goes:
If (they win both their games AND Arizona loses at least 1 game)

Stanford goes:
If (they beat Cal, and all 3 of the other teams get a loss)

So, if Oregon beats Arizona and Oregon St beats WSU this week, then the Civil War between those two will have its winner go the Rose Bowl, just like the Iowa-tOSU game.

 

[Bleed S & G]

It will never happen, but I would love to play an undefeated Cincy. Since it won't happen, bring on Oregon so we can shut the media up for the offseason.