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Reds tidbits (2010 season)

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I like Arroyo for all the reasons you guys cite. If its me however he's a luxury the team can't afford at the current payroll level.

If you are going to be a team that builds through the farm I think this is one of the times you have to just take your chances with the kids. Your system has produced 5-6 young, cheap and good pitchers now you have to bite the bullet and go with them come what may.

If you decide to pay the premiums for the insurance policy that is Arroyo you have no money left after raises next year to add anything significant to the team. Letting Arroyo go gives them 10-15MM.

I still see LF as the biggest area of need that has no one near MLB ready from the minors (I'm assuming their refusal to play Heisey over Gomes means they don't think Heisey is an everyday LFer). If an impact FA bat can be had in LF with that payflex I think that is the route you need to go. An impact bat that can hit leadoff (with an actually good OBP) is my biggest wish. Not sure any of them exist/are possible.

The best scenario is the increased attendance = increased payroll and they keep Arroyo at the level mentioned above. He's worth it. If however that doesn't happen I think he has to be let go.
 
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Jaxbuck;1751244; said:
I like Arroyo for all the reasons you guys cite. If its me however he's a luxury the team can't afford at the current payroll level.

If you are going to be a team that builds through the farm I think this is one of the times you have to just take your chances with the kids. Your system has produced 5-6 young, cheap and good pitchers now you have to bite the bullet and go with them come what may.

If you decide to pay the premiums for the insurance policy that is Arroyo you have no money left after raises next year to add anything significant to the team. Letting Arroyo go gives them 10-15MM.

I still see LF as the biggest area of need that has no one near MLB ready from the minors (I'm assuming their refusal to play Heisey over Gomes means they don't think Heisey is an everyday LFer). If an impact FA bat can be had in LF with that payflex I think that is the route you need to go. An impact bat that can hit leadoff (with an actually good OBP) is my biggest wish. Not sure any of them exist/are possible.

The best scenario is the increased attendance = increased payroll and they keep Arroyo at the level mentioned above. He's worth it. If however that doesn't happen I think he has to be let go.
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Harang is up for FA too. Buy him out at 2M and use the additional (App. 10M +) to get that everyday LF and I do believe Coco is a buyout at 1m as a '11 FA. Get Massat in the closer roll and continue building through the draft and the farm. The key is getting Votto in the fold. If he continues at this pace, he IS the NL MVP. He will command a huge contract. I'm guessing 6 years at 18M a year (at least). I am enjoying this ride though.
 
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ArmyVet83;1751284; said:
Harang is up for FA too. Buy him out at 2M and use the additional (App. 10M +) to get that everyday LF and I do believe Coco is a buyout at 1m as a '11 FA. Get Massat in the closer roll and continue building through the draft and the farm. The key is getting Votto in the fold. If he continues at this pace, he IS the NL MVP. He will command a huge contract. I'm guessing 6 years at 18M a year (at least). I am enjoying this ride though.
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It's not quite that simple. There are some players under contract for next year that have raises already built in (Rolen, Phillips). There are more still that will become eligible for arbitration and the raise that accompanies it (Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez & Bailey IIRC). The savings on Harang's salary is already spent for next season.

The closer I look at it, the stronger the case for letting Arroyo walk gets. There are only a few other guys who the Reds can buy out or let walk that can save them any money and combined they just about add up to the savings you'd see on letting Arroyo go. There might be a small bump in payroll for next year - especially if the gate stays strong down the stretch and the Reds make the playoffs. It won't be a windfall though. The Reds really need to look at trying lock up some of these young guys (Votto especially) and if Arroyo needs to be sacrificed to make that happen, I guess I can't be too disappointed.
 
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jlb1705;1751310; said:
It's not quite that simple. There are some players under contract for next year that have raises already built in (Rolen, Phillips). There are more still that will become eligible for arbitration and the raise that accompanies it (Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez & Bailey IIRC). The savings on Harang's salary is already spent for next season.

The closer I look at it, the stronger the case for letting Arroyo walk gets. There are only a few other guys who the Reds can buy out or let walk that can save them any money and combined they just about add up to the savings you'd see on letting Arroyo go. There might be a small bump in payroll for next year - especially if the gate stays strong down the stretch and the Reds make the playoffs. It won't be a windfall though. The Reds really need to look at trying lock up some of these young guys (Votto especially) and if Arroyo needs to be sacrificed to make that happen, I guess I can't be too disappointed.
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I like to keep things simple but I get your point(s). When I looked at the salary distribution, I didn't pick-up on the raises for the other players.
 
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jlb1705;1751310; said:
It's not quite that simple. There are some players under contract for next year that have raises already built in (Rolen, Phillips). There are more still that will become eligible for arbitration and the raise that accompanies it (Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez & Bailey IIRC). The savings on Harang's salary is already spent for next season.

The closer I look at it, the stronger the case for letting Arroyo walk gets. There are only a few other guys who the Reds can buy out or let walk that can save them any money and combined they just about add up to the savings you'd see on letting Arroyo go. There might be a small bump in payroll for next year - especially if the gate stays strong down the stretch and the Reds make the playoffs. It won't be a windfall though. The Reds really need to look at trying lock up some of these young guys (Votto especially) and if Arroyo needs to be sacrificed to make that happen, I guess I can't be too disappointed.
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While all that is understandable, it's only a one year deal. That is not a huge handicap on the salary base, and if this team makes the playoffs you can bet the team made $11 million more than last year. He still comes off the books in 2012 along with Cordero. You can still sign the young guys with escalators knowing that $35 million plus will be coming off the books in the next two years.

In the end it should be interesting. Just to add one more piece to the puzzle, right now Arroyo looks to be a Type A free agent. That may not be true if he has a bad year next year. There is no way he accept arbitration, so that means 2 first rounders if they let him go this year. Still may be true after next year, but 2 birds in hand are better than 2 in the bush.
 
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scott91575;1751387; said:
While all that is understandable, it's only a one year deal. That is not a huge handicap on the salary base, and if this team makes the playoffs you can bet the team made $11 million more than last year. He still comes off the books in 2012 along with Cordero. You can still sign the young guys with escalators knowing that $35 million plus will be coming off the books in the next two years.

In the end it should be interesting. Just to add one more piece to the puzzle, right now Arroyo looks to be a Type A free agent. That may not be true if he has a bad year next year. There is no way he accept arbitration, so that means 2 first rounders if they let him go this year. Still may be true after next year, but 2 birds in hand are better than 2 in the bush.
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Yep.

Assuming payroll stays the same it still comes down to choosing between BA and no pay flex for 2011 or no BA and 10-15MM* in payflex (and the draft picks).

*My 10-15 number is an estimation of all raises to arb eligible players,accounts for Harang being gone as well as all known raises (Phillips etc).
 
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Bestbuck36;1751184; said:
Awesome production from the catcher position lately for the Reds. Love to see that.
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I was thinking about the other day. From the catcher's position, the Reds are:

2nd in MLB with 76 RBI (3 behind ATL, 9 ahead of 3rd)
2nd in BA at .297 (MIN at .309, 3rd place SF at .285)
3rd in OBP at .368 (ATL leads at .379)
8th in SLG
3rd in OPS

Damn fine work from Hernandez & Hanigan
 
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Bucky Katt;1751670; said:
I was thinking about the other day. From the catcher's position, the Reds are:

2nd in MLB with 76 RBI (3 behind ATL, 9 ahead of 3rd)
2nd in BA at .297 (MIN at .309, 3rd place SF at .285)
3rd in OBP at .368 (ATL leads at .379)
8th in SLG
3rd in OPS

Damn fine work from Hernandez & Hanigan
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and Mesoraco in the wings.
 
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Hernandez is another interesting case for next season. He has an option (team option, as far as I can tell) for next year at $3.25 million (he makes $3 million this year). He turns 35 next season. The Reds just drafted Grandal, and Mesoraco seems like he's starting to knock on the door.

Do you let him walk, go with Hanigan and either a placeholder or Mesoraco? Do you pick up his option for next year? Is it worthwhile to have a Hispanic catcher to work with guys like Cueto, Volquez & Chapman - even if age catches up with him?
 
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jlb1705;1751690; said:
Hernandez is another interesting case for next season. He has an option (team option, as far as I can tell) for next year at $3.25 million (he makes $3 million this year). He turns 35 next season. The Reds just drafted Grandal, and Mesoraco seems like he's starting to knock on the door.

Do you let him walk, go with Hanigan and either a placeholder or Mesoraco? Do you pick up his option for next year? Is it worthwhile to have a Hispanic catcher to work with guys like Cueto, Volquez & Chapman - even if age catches up with him?
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Very tough call. This is where your trust in the opinions of your coaches and player development people comes in. Just like with Arroyo, are the kids ready to step up so you can let Rhodes and Hernandez go?

If so that's another 5MM or so freed up. That pays for BP's raise right there.
 
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Bucknut24;1751784; said:
stupid butt pirates
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Might as well chalk up a sweep for the Cards. The Pirates are not even a AAA team, and the game where there was any advantage was today. Yet Ohlendorf left with arm problems.

Oh, and Strasburg is on the DL too. I could see the Cards easily going 6-1 in the next 7 days.
 
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Joey Votto is on the cover of the next issue of SI:

1120_1282607986.jpg


As a subscriber I think this is awesome. As a Reds fan I'm certain this spells doom.
 
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