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- Thread starter Jaxbuck
- Start date
Ondrusek is getting lit up now. 10-2. Sticking with this game was totally worth it to see Sandoval belly flop in to second base though 
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scott91575
Resident hater
To be honest, I will be happy if the Reds get one in SF and come home with a 6-3 west coast trip with at least a 1 1/2 game lead in the division.
Heck, when it started I would was just hoping they would return in first place, especially with the Cards schedule.
Heck, when it started I would was just hoping they would return in first place, especially with the Cards schedule.
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scott91575;1751893; said:
Not in a perfect world but in the world with payroll limits I think they are going to have to do just that. Hopefully they bump payroll and we can keep Arroyo one more year and still add some pieces.
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scott91575
Resident hater
Jaxbuck;1751981; said:
I have really been trying to go through the whole salary thing with this team. Bruce, Cueto, and Votto have arbitration. Votto is essentially going to replace Harang for money. That leaves Bruce and Cueto. I could see those two combine for about $12 million (a very ballpark figure).
Rolen's contract reduces by $1 million.
Phillips increases by $4 million.
Rhodes is at $2 million, no idea what happens there. For now I will assume he is gone.
Cabrera makes $2 million. I am going to assume he is gone ($4 million option).
Ramon Hernandez makes about $4 million. Again, I will assume he is gone.
In the end that is all a wash since someone will probably be back (I say bye to Cabrera at least, and sadly I think Hernandez will be a casualty).
So you still have a $12 million bump next year, but I don't think that is unreasonable considering the attendance. I have no idea about tv and radio contracts and how long they are signed for, but those will go up too.
So it really comes down to do the Reds let Arroyo go to save $11 million to be spent elsewhere. Yet that is all it is, $11 million. Unless a FA is a 1 year guy, $11 million is not much. The only 1 year guys I see who are worth anything are Magglio Ordonez and maybe Manny Ramirez. Both are injuries waiting to happen. If you sign someone long term for that money, they will either not be that good or will eat into future money. The Cordero contract that comes off in 2012 really needs to go to the young players to escalate their salaries, and the other ones making it to arbitration. Even then I am not sure it's enough. Phillips has an option, but I don't really see a whole lot of 2nd baseman in the minors being ready in 2012. So some of that $11 million Arroyo money will be needed for the young players 2012 and beyond. If you have Arroyo next year and let him go in 2012 it will be there. If you sign someone in LF for $11 per on a long term deal, it won't be. So that eliminates signing someone for a long term deal at that money.
Anyway, the way I see it, that leaves a few options to choose from (assuming the team stays very similar to now)....
1) Keep Arroyo one more year, and let him go in 2012
2) Let Arroyo go and get someone like Ordonez for one year.
3) Let Arroyo go and get a Brad Hawpe or maybe even a Marcus Thames for a few years. None of those guys are great, but an improvement over Gomes (although Hawpe will be bad in the field like Gomes).
In my mind, Arroyo is the safe play (especially since it's a sure thing, and options 2 and 3 are not). Anyone you get for 1 year is going to be old and a huge injury risk, and anyone for more than 1 year and it's only a small help. Arroyo will essentially be replacing the 5th spot (the one in flux). He could improve that by a win, maybe 2. Similar improvement to the other options, and it is really a much safer play.
Yet in the end it's still a toss up. I could see them going with any of the above, but right now I am leaning towards picking up Arroyo's option.
BTW...yes, I know, Carl Crawford, yada, yada, yada. It's not going to happen. He is going to get serious money and a long term deal. The Reds simply cannot afford to get in bidding wars for those types of players.
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Refining some of your numbers (according to COTS):
- Cabrera's option is a $4 million mutual option. If the player execises it but the club declines, there is a $1 million buyout. That $1 million should probably be considered a sunk cost at this point.
- Hernandez only stands to make $3.25 million next season if his option is picked up. (He made $3 million this year, so it would be a negligible raise).
- Also, let's not forget about the most gone of all the goners... Mike Lincoln's $2.5 million comes off the books.
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scott91575;1752120; said:
I agree. I just keep saying 10-15Mm because we don't know what's going to happen with the arb eligible guys exactly.
I'm with you on that probably not being enough to fix LF. If they want to keep Arroyo for the final year he's definitely worth it and it wouldn't be a terrible idea by any stretch.
If they do keep Arroyo and don't bump payroll then guys like Gomes, Cabrerra, Rhodes and Hernandez will probably all have to go. It's always a balancing act.
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Jaxbuck;1752162; said:
Of the four, there isn't one I'd be disappointed to see go. Gomes & Cabrera are the very definition of replaceable. Rhodes has been productive and worth every penny of his salary, but can he be counted on to keep that up at his age? Having a Spanish speaking catcher in Hernandez might be a good idea, but what's the point of having a guy like him if all your Spanish-speaking pitchers are going to not listen or not give a shit anyway en route to getting shelled?
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scott91575
Resident hater
jlb1705;1752142; said:
Well, I was just making a simplification to say the salary is going to be bumped around $12 million next year (just a ballpark), they should be able to handle that, and the team will be essentially the same. Arroyo does not need to be let go in order to keep the team together. Therefore letting Arroyo go will free up $11 million, so what to do with it if they let him go? I don't see it making or breaking a contract for Hernandez, so really the thing left is to shore up LF. Not much out there in free agency for that dollar amount.
I simply would hate to see Arroyo go so they can re sign Cabrera and then go get another Willy Taveres and some other garbage $3 million player because they went free agent shopping and once again realized they are poor white trash compared to the Rockefellers (Yanks) and Rothschilds (Red Sox). Or worse, get all jealous and crazy of the rich teams, run down to rent a center, and pay a crapload for POS RCA tv (Cordero) just so they can show off their shiny new toy that everyone thinks is a piece of crap.
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Valaika & LeCure have been called up according to RZ. Edmonds to the DL should be one of the corresponding roster moves. Jordan Smith to AAA is probably the other but that's perhaps not quite as clear yet.
Nix will be available for PH duty tonight. The Reds are facing a string of LHP so he probably wouldn't have been starting much coming up anyway.
Valaika should help take care of the lack of IF bench, and should be a better option to face those LHPs than Francisco.
LeCure is there to serve as cannon fodder if things get out of hand again tonight or tomorrow.
Nix will be available for PH duty tonight. The Reds are facing a string of LHP so he probably wouldn't have been starting much coming up anyway.
Valaika should help take care of the lack of IF bench, and should be a better option to face those LHPs than Francisco.
LeCure is there to serve as cannon fodder if things get out of hand again tonight or tomorrow.
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I just cant stand it when we get shellacked by a Punch and Judy type team like the friggin Giants. Their pitching is excellent, and usually is. But that lineup is one I would love to face as an opposing pitcher. Wood should have a good outing tonight. That ballpark in SF has a tendency to lose balls though so hopefully Punch and Judy arent all carrying rabbits feet in their pockets tonight.
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scott91575
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jlb1705;1752313; said:
From what I hear two players were promoted to Louisville. I believe Smith is going back to Carolina. He will probably get more work in the Mudcat's bullpen.
BTW...The Reds and Carolina extended their AA contract through 2012, so they will stay the Reds AA team.
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Pirates have come back with two in the 6th, two in the 7th to take a 4-2 lead vs. Wainwright & the Little Bitches. Wainwright is up to 117 pitches, so he's probably done for the night.
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