scott91575;1747272; said:
BTW...there have been articles written about saves in MLB. Since the invention of the 1 inning closer, the MLB save rate has not changed at all. In other words, 1 inning specialized closers have created zero benefits to a team. Of course with the steroid era in there you would think save % would go down (more runs scored would normally mean more lead changes, and therefore lower save percentages). I have not really looked at trends in the last few years.
It's a topic I'd love to discuss when I had more time to do some research but anecdotaly I'd say a truly elite 1 inning closer (how to define that is issue #1) does in fact help increase a teams chances of winning (important distinction bewteen that and a "save"). For an obvious example, having a Mariano Rivera as the closer will in fact help a team win more than say a Francisco Cordero.
Since I am not doing any research for my PhD in baseball I'd just go to Fangraphs or some such site and look at all relievers and their "value" stats-RAR/WAR etc*. It's not perfect due mainly to the volatile nature and small sample sizes inherent to the position but it gives you a very good sense of what a reliever brings to a team in terms of differential between he and a replacement level player.*giving a general description of value stats for those unfamiliar, not trying to talk down to those who are familiar with them.
Cordero has a -.3 RAR and a 0.0 WAR. Essentially this means he is no more effective than putting any replacement level pitcher on the mound every night in a rule book save situation. Anyone can eyeball Cordero and see he's not good and intuitively decide from there that the "save" stat is obviously a flawed measure if used in a vacuum to determine a pitchers worth.
There is no doubt in my mind Dusty knows this guy is at the end of his rope but The Dusty is in a tight spot here because there certainly isn't a clear cut alternative and he has to protect his player. So in an absurd twist of reality Dusty is, without knowing it I'm sure, using the concept that any pitcher can go into a save situation and save a decent % of games to his advantage. He's using a replacement level pitcher (Cordero) to close which protects that players psyche and keeps the psyche of all the other not ready for prime time pitchers in order because they aren't being thrust into a role that will set them up for failure.
I'm not saying I agree with it or that he's right but imo, that's what he's doing while hoping against hope Cordero unfucks himself or someone else steps up.
IMO, its a situation Walt is going to have to fix because Dusty is just going to be too loyal to Cordero and there isn't a strong enough in house candidate. So what is Walt going to do? Trading for a true closer is a non issue, they are far too expensive and you still owe Cordero an ass ton of money. He tried the dumpster dive approach but Izzy looks like they kicked him out of GNR for a reason. Everyone wants to see Chapman but I don't think for one second Dusty is going to let him close over the veteran Cordero unless Cordero gets a lot worse. Just as a wild ass guess, based on usage patterns, I'd say that the only other current Reds pitcher Dusty might use as a closer is Masset.
So in summary I think all Reds fans better pray that Cordero unfucks himself because I don't see any other solutions on the horizon in 2010 except for possibly Masset.
