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Reds tidbits (2010 season)

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jlb1705 said:
He has pretty much hit 40 HR and had 100 RBI every year since 2004. He is about as consistent a player as you'll find in MLB and he should still be a Red.
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Yeah...the Reds are sure missing that career .249 batting average. Or his impressive streak of three streak strike out titles.

He is by far the worst 40 HR 100 RBI player in baseball. And actually...if you are hitting 40 HRs...100 RBIs is not impressive at all.

But at least he is a great defensive player.
 
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JXC;1665121; said:
Yeah...the Reds are sure missing that career .249 batting average. Or his impressive streak of three streak strike out titles.

He is by far the worst 40 HR 100 RBI player in baseball. And actually...if you are hitting 40 HRs...100 RBIs is not impressive at all.
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It is when you play your entire career for teams that can't get on base in front of you. How many RBIs can you possibly pile up if guys like Corey Patterson and Tony Womack are batting in front of you?

For several years now the Reds have been a team that has struggled to get on base and score runs. Without Adam Dunn last year, the Reds scored less runs than they had in any year that he was with the team.

Batting average is a near worthless stat. Willy Taveras has a career .276 BA. Is he a better player than Dunn? HELL NO. Taveras managed to stumble into a .320 one season though and has managed to fleece a few teams who thing batting average is worth a damn into giving him a job.

So he led the league in strikeouts. He also led the league (or close to it) in walks. As a batter, his job is to get on base and avoid making outs. On the whole he's better at that than most players in the league and better than pretty much anybody the Reds have had during or since (Joey Votto had a Dunn-like season last year in terms of getting on base). And strikeouts aren't that big a deal. It's an out - just the same as a pop fly or a ground ball. Sometimes it's worse if there could've been a sacrifice by putting the ball in play, and sometimes as strikeout is better if putting the ball in play for an out would've meant a double or triple play. Strikeouts are not so bad unless you're allergic to first base like Willy Taveras and so many other Reds players.
 
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JXC;1665121; said:
Yeah...the Reds are sure missing that career .249 batting average. Or his impressive streak of three streak strike out titles.

He is by far the worst 40 HR 100 RBI player in baseball. And actually...if you are hitting 40 HRs...100 RBIs is not impressive at all.

But at least he is a great defensive player.
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I'm not really up for anymore Adam Dunn arguments but I would suggest looking into why so many people will tell you that judging an offensive players value by BA and RBI is so far off the mark.

Adman Dunn has weak spots in his game but he also has value as a run producer that some aren't willing to see or give credit to for whatever reason.

I personally think the problem is during the Bowden era we had 8 other guys who had a similar offensive style and fans frustration with the "beer league softball" offense, the shitty pitching and all the losing just all fixated on Dunn. Marty's incessant whippings didn't help to be sure.

The irony of the whole thing to me is now that the Reds have good pitching and solid defense a 40 HR 100+ RBI machine in LF would most likely make them the second best team in the NL on paper heading into 2010.
 
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According to C Trent Dusty has his lineup cards filled out already:

1. Stubbs/Dickerson
2. Cabrera
3. Votto
4. Phillips
5. Rolen
6. Bruce

Meh, I'd flip Rolen and BP but other than that I'm not too pissed (yet). When OC needs a day off and he still bats the SS second I will be pissed (and you fucking KNOW he'll do it).

Also hoping, along with everyone else, Bruce breaks out and forces his way up the ladder.
 
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Jaxbuck;1666775; said:
According to C Trent Dusty has his lineup cards filled out already:

1. Stubbs/Dickerson
2. Cabrera
3. Votto
4. Phillips
5. Rolen
6. Bruce

Meh, I'd flip Rolen and BP but other than that I'm not too pissed (yet). When OC needs a day off and he still bats the SS second I will be pissed (and you fucking KNOW he'll do it).

Also hoping, along with everyone else, Bruce breaks out and forces his way up the ladder.
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I'd personally put Phillips 2nd and Rolen 4 and Bruce 5 and Gomes 6 and then bat Cabrera 7th or 8th depending on who the catcher is.....maybe....I just don't know if this lineup is deep enough yet to produce offense throughout the season.
 
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BuckeyeMike80;1666779; said:
I'd personally put Phillips 2nd and Rolen 4 and Bruce 5 and Gomes 6 and then bat Cabrera 7th or 8th depending on who the catcher is.....maybe....I just don't know if this lineup is deep enough yet to produce offense throughout the season.
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BP's splits in the 2 hole are abysmal. For whatever reason he just doesn't hit well there.

Agree on part two. Everyone must stay healthy and productive, Bruce has to explode and the LF do jour has to produce above NL average or the offense will do this team in.
 
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Jaxbuck;1666783; said:
BP's splits in the 2 hole are abysmal. For whatever reason he just doesn't hit well there.

Agree on part two. Everyone must stay healthy and productive, Bruce has to explode and the LF do jour has to produce above NL average or the offense will do this team in.
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ok I didn't know that about his splits. I figured that since he's a dead red hitter, seeing more fastballs being in the 2 hole would help him.

Oh well....could be an indication that he was trying to do to much early in his career.

But yes, this team is a significant slump or injury away from being that .480 team again.
 
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BuckeyeMike80;1666794; said:
I figured that since he's a dead red hitter, seeing more fastballs being in the 2 hole would help him.
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To be fair, he's had CP and Tvirus batting leadoff in front of him a lot. Not sure why a pitcher is going to pump fastballs to a good fastball hitter with 1 out and no one on.
 
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I might do some long winded Reds 2010 preview but here is a thought. They will go as far as the offense takes them and one of the key cogs in the offense will be the development of Jay Bruce.

Here are a couple of triple slash projections (BA/OBP/SLG) for his 2010 season from Bill James and CHONE:


BJ: 274/340/537
CHONE: 286/351/539

James has him playing in 155 games and collecting 38 HR and 95 RBI with that line. CHONE has him only playing 122 games and getting 25 HR and 64 RBI.

I think we need the Bill James version to have any shot at contending but I also think there is a good chance we get it. The kid is only 22 and improving his plate discipline at the MLB level. I still think he's a future cornerstone.


EDIT

fantastic article from last year on Bruce from Fangraphs.

Don't give up on Jay Bruce
 
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I think Bruce will be a big key for the Reds this year too...most projections I have seen have him at the 6 hole, which will be critical because Votto and Phillips should hopefully be on base a lot. There isn't much behind him in the 7/8 slots either.
 
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Bucklion;1669430; said:
I think Bruce will be a big key for the Reds this year too...most projections I have seen have him at the 6 hole, which will be critical because Votto and Phillips should hopefully be on base a lot. There isn't much behind him in the 7/8 slots either.
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Based on today's action I'd have to say, they're still shitty. :wink2:
 
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