Reds Tidbits (2009 season)

[osuteke]

Excellent small ball and coaching by the Reds. They did get a break with that wild pitch, but a great game. I don't get a chance to see all the Reds games, that was very very nice. Looking forward to tomorrow and watching Arroyo pitch, the matchup favors Reds.

 

[Dryden]

How many more times do the Phillies run Jamie Moyer out there before they start wishing they hadn't given up Maloney in the Lohse deal? Kid looked good tonight. Thanks Philly!

Somewhere Homer Bailey is breaking TV sets.

If Dickerson blocks Taveras's return to CF, I won't shed a tear. Will be watching Baseball Tonight tonight just to see the Reds' gems, because Dickerson should have at least three of them after tonights game. Unbelievable glove in CF.

 

[EDDIE GGGG27]

Maloney was very impressive. Looks as if he has a very good idea of how to pitch by the way he sets hitters up. And that change is better than advertised. Take notes Homer.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Somewhere Homer Bailey is breaking TV sets.

Not by throwing anything at them he isn't.

If Dickerson blocks Taveras's return to CF, I won't shed a tear. Will be watching Baseball Tonight tonight just to see the Reds' gems, because Dickerson should have at least three of them after tonights game. Unbelievable glove in CF.

Dickerson shouldn't block WT. WT should never have been here in the first place.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

He's not swinging at "bad" pitches, he's swinging at everything in the area code of home plate. He goes through protracted stretches like this -- did it last season after his hot start when he was called up, did it this season in April.

Getting in a groove isn't going to *fix* it, because he'll just go 1-for-27 again when he comes out the other side of that groove in July.

Bruce's problem is discipline and strike zone judgement. He's 22. He's not going to learn that this year, and he's not likely to figure it out next year either.

I'm sure he'll figure it out eventually, but it's going to be awfully painful to watch for the next several years.

But also he took two walks last night, which is good to see...And also his BABIP shows that he has been extremely unlucky...I don't have the numbers right here in front of me, but he is wya below league average, so if that were to even out, and he gets hot again, and continues to take walks, we could start to see Jay evolve, but the best thing IMO...Is you have kid that has the talent, it is a good thing for him to struggle as long as he comes out for the better on the flipside...

 

[crazybuckfan40]

It was one game for Maloney...I am not saying not to be a little excited, but what will happen when major leaguers have seen video and can figure him out? Will his soft tossing stuff still work...

He gave up two homeruns last night...He got a lucky out on a stolen base, where the guy came off the bag, and some great defense from Dickerson...All i am saying is if guys were on base when those homeruns were hit, or he doesn't get the great defense, it could of been a lot worse...

He is a flyball pitcher which scares me in GABP...If he does stick, this could allow us to let a guy like Arroyo go at the deadline...It would be nice to have a lefty in the rotation as well...

As for Dickerson, He is a guy I really like...I wanted him in CF last year, for Patterson and the same this year...He is not a guy that can really man LF and have the bat to play there...but he has a great approach at the plate, some will look and see .240 average, but he sees so many pitches, walks, and is very patient, and plays great defense...A player that I really like...

 

[Jaxbuck]

But also he took two walks last night, which is good to see...And also his BABIP shows that he has been extremely unlucky...I don't have the numbers right here in front of me, but he is wya below league average, so if that were to even out, and he gets hot again, and continues to take walks, we could start to see Jay evolve, but the best thing IMO...Is you have kid that has the talent, it is a good thing for him to struggle as long as he comes out for the better on the flipside...

Bruce has 611 AB's now for his career over 2 seasons which is equivilant to a full year. His BB:K ratio is 1:3 and he has a .310 OBP. Thats more than a stretch of unlucky BABIP, thats just flat out not very good. The positive side is he is very young, the negative side is that he hasn't shown much improvement yet.

As far as Dickerson and Tavares goes I'll just keep beating this dead horse because if I (and many others) could see it back in the winter time why couldn't the Reds braintrust?

2009 season to date

The really fast guy they went and signed for over 6M and 2 years after another team just cut him(BTW they said they saw something wrong and could "fix" him)?

WT: .260 avg/.318 OBP What did I tell a certain someone he would regress to? About a .250 BA and just over .300 OBP and be near worthless? They don't have career numbers by accident and wishing the guy suddenly improves rarely makes it so.

Meanwhile the guy we already had in house that only costs MLB minimum and is under our control for many years?

Dickerson: .241/.368 I admit I was wrong. I said Dickerson would give you similar production for less money, he has in fact given superior production for less money.

Still a lot of time to go and I hate small sample sizes but Dickerson is at 200+ AB's for his short career now and the numbers are steady. He looks like he can keep an above NL CF avg .350 OBP, give you excellent CF defense and did I mention he's young and cheap? He isn't anywhere near the threat as a base stealer but wtf good is the ability to steal second when you rarely get on 1st?

I'll keep asking it over and over. How much better could this team be with that WT money spent on SS or LF?

 

[Dryden]

He is a flyball pitcher which scares me in GABP...If he does stick, this could allow us to let a guy like Arroyo go at the deadline...It would be nice to have a lefty in the rotation as well...

No way I'd let Arroyo go now and leave Harang carrying a rotation where 4 of the 5 starters haven't pitched for more than 2 years in the bigs. Arroyo eats lots of innings (Arroyo and Harang are #1 and #2 in MLB in IP since 2006). The Reds need those two to keep the pressure off the bullpen for ~50 combined starts a year, which is all either under 30 or over 40.

Arroyo isn't exactly a key cog in the machine, but I think it'd be disasterous to let his 130 pitches per 5th start go and try and replace it with a guy who'll be on a strict 90-95 PC limit for at least the next two years.

Arroyo for Willy Mo, in hindsight, has been one of the best, most lopsided trades in MLB history.

 

[Jaxbuck]

No way I'd let Arroyo go now and leave Harang carrying a rotation where 4 of the 5 starters haven't pitched for more than 2 years in the bigs. Arroyo eats lots of innings (Arroyo and Harang are #1 and #2 in MLB in IP since 2006). The Reds need those two to keep the pressure off the bullpen for ~50 combined starts a year, which is all either under 30 or over 40.

Arroyo isn't exactly a key cog in the machine, but I think it'd be disasterous to let his 130 pitches per 5th start go and try and replace it with a guy who'll be on a strict 90-95 PC limit for at least the next two years.

Arroyo for Willy Mo, in hindsight, has been one of the best, most lopsided trades in MLB history.

I agree with that side of it but on the other side of it Arroyo's contract is going to demand he be moved, if possible, sooner rather than later. Thats a big % of the payroll to be spending on an MLB average innings eater when the offense has so many needs.

 

[Dryden]

I agree with that side of it but on the other side of it Arroyo's contract is going to demand he be moved, if possible, sooner rather than later. Thats a big % of the payroll to be spending on an MLB average innings eater when the offense has so many needs.

I know Arroyo's contract will put him out of the Reds reach, but I'm not a buyer in the belief the Reds are a "small market" team that should be working with a third to a half of the payroll other teams do.

If the Reds could consistently put a product on the field that won more than 80 games a year, they could draw 8,000-10,000 more per game at GABP than they have been.

Crowds of 10,000-15,000 for a franchise with as rich a history as Cincinnati is unacceptable, IMHO.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I know Arroyo's contract will put him out of the Reds reach, but I'm not a buyer in the belief the Reds are a "small market" team that should be working with a third to a half of the payroll other teams do.

If the Reds could consistently put a product on the field that won more than 80 games a year, they could draw 8,000-10,000 more per game at GABP than they have been.

Crowds of 10,000-15,000 for a franchise with as rich a history as Cincinnati is unacceptable, IMHO.

I agree. They are about middle of the road. They just don't spend it wisely. Its not that they can't afford Arroyo (or a real SS or a real LF bat) its that the waste in the 80M or so payroll is sufficent to keep them from doing so.

Guys like WT, AG and some of the pen aren't a huge expense in and of themselves but they are a waste none the less. Small bad decisions are better than big bad decisions but they are still bad decisions.

Keeping Arroyo just compounds the inneficent use of limited resources imo.

 

[Mike80]

Just my .02 here, I think the inning load Arroyo has had since he has been a Red doesn't bode well for his long-term prospects. At some point he's going to break down.

If the Reds arent' going to seriously entertain re-signing him and assuming they likely won't be within reach of the division or wild card, then I think you trade him. But if the Reds keep up the literally shocking start, they might as well get their full use out of him IMO.

I guess it all depends on where they are the last week of July.

 

[schwab]

...(Arroyo and Harang are #1 and #2 in MLB in IP since 2006)...

Not to nit pick, but during today's game they posted some sort of graphic saying Halladay was #1, Sabathia #2, and then Harang and Arroyo came in at #5 and #6, in this same timeframe

...Arroyo for Willy Mo, in hindsight, has been one of the best, most lopsided trades in MLB history.

Wasn't that great?

 

[Jaxbuck]

Just my .02 here, I think the inning load Arroyo has had since he has been a Red doesn't bode well for his long-term prospects. At some point he's going to break down.

If the Reds arent' going to seriously entertain re-signing him and assuming they likely won't be within reach of the division or wild card, then I think you trade him. But if the Reds keep up the literally shocking start, they might as well get their full use out of him IMO.

I guess it all depends on where they are the last week of July.

If he was younger I'd agree about the breaking down but he's proven he can handle the load and they all break down eventually.

As for being buyers or sellers we've fucked this up for years. The Wild Card gives people the false sense we are "contenders" and we end up passing on a chance to improve the franchise for the long run.

The window to trade Arroyo may have passed already. Buyers know he'll be expensive as hell, not just by Reds standards, soon and the return will be comparable. Also the trend in MLB is to not move prospects for rent a players.

If they move him at all it will be a salary dump and you'll get little to nothing of value in return imo. Just more pay flex for the next WT fiasco.

 

[Jaxbuck]

...Arroyo for Willy Mo, in hindsight, has been one of the best, most lopsided trades in MLB history.

That was a prospect who never panned out for a good but not great starting pitcher.

Most lopsided of all time territory is trading Frank Robinson to Baltimore for Milt fucking Pappas and a couple of other stiffs because he was an "old" 30.

(Kind of like running a certain LF out of town for not hustling out to his position between innings maybe?)