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Reds Tidbits (2009 season)

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Bucky Katt;1503053; said:
Watched again last night. Too irritable to turn on the computer, though. I need to remind myself that every loss is a good loss right now. Sellers, not buyers. Sellers, not buyers. Keep losing guys.
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The worst thing is you just know they were thinking buyers. Now they are going to get caught with their pants down and not be able to sell anyone. So this team will stay exactly the same.
 
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The Cardinals go out and get Mark Derosa and Matt Holliday. what have the Reds done to counter that??? Traded for Corky fucking miller and Kip fuckin Wells. "The losing stops now"!-Bob Castellini after the 1st month of the season last year.
 
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EDDIE GGGG27;1504077; said:
The Cardinals go out and get Mark Derosa and Matt Holliday. what have the Reds done to counter that??? Traded for Corky fucking miller and Kip fuckin Wells. "The losing stops now"!-Bob Castellini after the 1st month of the season last year.
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What the hell do the Reds have to actually barter to GET those type of players without completely mortgaging the future?

And with the contracts the Reds main trade piece has (Arroyo) and since Aaron Harang is completely ineffective now, there's NO WAY the Reds can compete with that this year.

The Reds aren't a buyer and haven't really been all year long. The first half of smoke and mirrors was just that - at the break they had a -49 run differential but were only what 3 games under .500?? Hell every other team with that type of differential was 10 games or more below .500.
 
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BuckeyeMike80;1504150; said:
What the hell do the Reds have to actually barter to GET those type of players without completely mortgaging the future?
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I waited to answer this and then saw a post over at RZ that sums it up way better than I could. RedsManRick is a poster whom I think a great deal of, very intelligent guy.

I got asked in a PM why the Reds keep having so much negative production... I thought I'd share my response.

I would say you have to first differentiate the negative producers in to four categories:

1) Good players having bad seasons: There's not much you can do about these guys. It happens. Usually they'll come back around to the positive by the end of the season -- at minimum they'll likely rebound the following year. Example: Arroyo (yes, he's in decline, but he still should be a positive contributor)

2) Legit prospects getting a shot and not doing well: These guys are tough because they're harder to predict and you've got to give them an extended chance to be solid contributors. I put these guys in the risks-worth-taking category, so long as you cut the cord at a certain point. At least these guys are cheap. Example: Bailey, Rosales, Janish (though less so given his track record).

3) Non-prospects getting a shot and not doing well: When you're 28 and haven't reached the majors, there's usually a good reason for it. A good run in AAA or Spring Training is most often a string of good luck, not a jump in ability. This one comes down to your scouts -- is this guy really a better ball player? Usually the answer is no, but optimism and confirmation bias can be a powerful combination. Example: McDonald.

4) Established major leaguers who just aren't good: This is the biggest problem group and the worst mistake GMs tend to make. Often, this is the result of being blind-sided by one good year that was a perfect storm of peak performance and good luck -- and wholly unrepeatable. Occasionally it's just wishcasting on a prospect who never panned out. Often, it results in committing an inappropriate amount of resources (talent or treasure) given the production you should have expected. Examples: Gonzalez, Lincoln, Taveras.

The sabermetric approach is most valuable with group #4. While new school GMs might miss out on a guy who has put up bad numbers in the past but has great skills, it's an error of omission that doesn't end up hurting the team badly. (Type II error -- excess conservatism). Not signing a good player or promoting a good prospect doesn't help your team, but it doesn't do long term damage.

Meanwhile, old school GMs are more prone to misevaluating players which require significant talent or treasure to acquire. They give Eric Milton a 3 year deal or Gary Matthews Jr. 5. Of course, the classic case is Barry Zito. The signs were all there if you knew where to look. Beane knew, Sabean didn't.

The Reds have cycled through old school GM after old school GM. While they've made good moves like acquiring Phillips for peanuts and selling high on Hamilton, every year the Reds commit excess money and playing time to at least one guy who clearly didn't deserve it from the very start. They think that Alex Gonzalez inability to get on base doesn't matter. They bet (literally) that Willy Taveras is a better bet to produce than Chris Dickerson. They think Josh Fogg belongs in a major league rotation.

Don't get me wrong, scouting and other qualitative evaluations are an enormous part of building a winning team. But in addition to creating opportunity for upside, you have to manage your downside as well. And that's where quantitative analysis is perhaps most useful. It helps you differentiate between flash* and substance** so you can do a better job avoiding big mistakes.

*Flash: A combination of small sample success resulting from "luck", aka variance, and aesthetically pleasing skills/actions that might not be terribly valuable in winning baseball games.

**Substance: A skill base which will support sustained success, including attributes which are undervalued such as plate discipline and defensive range.
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OHSportsFan9;1504550; said:
Back

1st inning= :slappy:

Yeesh. Reds made a mess of that fly ball. 4 out of the first 5 Cubs batters collectively hit for the cycle (only out was a bunt, also that "triple" by Lee should have been an error). Some kind of record?
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Those are the type of games that make me feel a little sorry for the poofy haired one. I may not like him and he is most certainly is a dumb fuck but I can at least understand the bitterness.

If I had to watch every inning of every game (roughly) of the full frontal douchebaggery exhibited by this franchise the past 10-15 years I'd be in prison or the nut house by now.
 
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jlb1705;1505118; said:
From Wikipedia:



:slappy:
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Just to show you how bad I've tuned them out, I don't know if thats true or not but I wouldn't put it past them. 24 games? Thats a ridiculous number.

How much do you guys want to bet Wait Jocketty either does nothing at all or makes one piss ant middle reliever for a bag of balls type of limp dick trade?

On second thought check that, if I say that they'll go empty the farm for Rolen, Scuturo and Vernon Wells from Toronto while Halladay goes to Philly.

I know I pussied out and came back after I said I was done if they hired The Dusty but if they make some big splash/we're one veteran player away from winning type of bullshit trade I may not be responsible for my own actions.
 
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Jaxbuck;1505155; said:
Just to show you how bad I've tuned them out, I don't know if thats true or not but I wouldn't put it past them. 24 games? Thats a ridiculous number.

How much do you guys want to bet Wait Jocketty either does nothing at all or makes one piss ant middle reliever for a bag of balls type of limp dick trade?

On second thought check that, if I say that they'll go empty the farm for Rolen, Scuturo and Vernon Wells from Toronto while Halladay goes to Philly.

I know I pussied out and came back after I said I was done if they hired The Dusty but if they make some big splash/we're one veteran player away from winning type of bullshit trade I may not be responsible for my own actions.
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If you need an alibi.....
 
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Jaxbuck;1505155; said:
Just to show you how bad I've tuned them out, I don't know if thats true or not but I wouldn't put it past them. 24 games? Thats a ridiculous number.
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I won't lie, I had to look it up. :sad2:

As long as it's gonna say something outrageous we may as well amend it to say something like this:

The Reds won their first 130 games, but have not won a single contest since their initial defeat at the hands of the Brooklyn Atlantics in 1870. The 139-year losing streak can be attributed mainly to the the 3-run home runs hit by the giant lumberjack outfielders that have populated their roster through the years.

Jaxbuck;1505155; said:
How much do you guys want to bet Wait Jocketty either does nothing at all or makes one [censored] ant middle reliever for a bag of balls type of limp dick trade?

On second thought check that, if I say that they'll go empty the farm for Rolen, Scuturo and Vernon Wells from Toronto while Halladay goes to Philly.

I know I pussied out and came back after I said I was done if they hired The Dusty but if they make some big splash/we're one veteran player away from winning type of bull[censored] trade I may not be responsible for my own actions.
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I'm fully counting on it.
 
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