Reds Tidbits (2008 season)

[Jaxbuck]

I understand the OBP argument and appreciate stats like OPS much more than I ever did in the past. However, I have one major issue with the whole OBP is #1 argument. As Bill James states, it is based on the fact that every inning is theoretically timeless and infinite at bats are possible. If you just don't make outs, the inning continues and eventually you score runs. In theory this is absolutely true. In reality, it is not. Other than games that end in a last at bat, there are 3 outs in every inning. I know that there are volumes of statistical data that back up James' theories. I agree that the general principles are true. But I also believe that you cannot blindly apply them.

Are sacrifice bunts a waste of an AB? Most of the time, yes. In a close game with a tough pitcher on the mound, it might make the difference in scoring a run or not scoring a run. 1-1 game in the 8th inning with the starters going strong, the lead off hitter makes it to 1st. A sacrifice to 2nd means that it likely only takes 1 hit to score the runner. That means getting 1 hit before 2 outs. No sacrifice means you likely need to get 2 hits or a walk and a hit before 3 outs. Which is the higher probability? Again, it probably depends on who is coming up.

Dunn is always a fun debate. We know he takes more pitches than most, walks more than most, strikes out more than most, and strikes out looking more than most. He also hits more homers, drives in more runs, and scores more runs than most. If he took fewer pitches, would he get more hits and more homers and score/drive in more runs? Or would he just strike out more? It's tough to say. Judging by his "hot zone" data, he's pretty much a "mistake" pitch hitter. So, my hunch would be that Dunn swinging more would just equal more strike outs. It's frustrating as hell to watch him look at strike 3 in a close and late situation, but over time I've come to realize that unless it is a meatball down the middle or a "hanger," he would probably whiff at the pitch anyways.

These comments aren't directed in response to Jax or CB40's posts or Baker's comments in particular. Just some thoughts I've been kicking around for awhile that seemed relevant to the current conversation.

James would be quick to tell anyone you can't blindly apply anything I would think.

As far as the outs thing goes, one of the biggest reasons he is so big on the importance of every out is because each team is only given 27, thats why you have to be so judicious with sacrifices, you are voluntarily giving up one of your precious 27 outs. Its also why everything he says about offense revolves around "don't make an out" followed closely by "do as much damage as possible".

He knows outs are going to be made, the superior offensive player (Pujols or Arod types) will not only make them with less frequency he will bash the living fuck out of the ball when he doesn't make an out.

James' ideal isn't a conga line around the bases by a bunch of all walk no hit guys. He, just like I said above, says the ideal is a lineup full of guys who can do both but if you have to pick a side to favor toward pick the OBP side.


BTW- I agree 100% Dunn is mostly just a mistake hitter. Not thats such a bad thing, most guys are just that. I like Dunn and defend him against most of the ignorant slamming he takes from Reds fans and broadcasters but I do not suffer under the delusion he is one of those rare talents that can make a pitcher pay even when they throw a pitchers pitch.

 

[CookyPuss]

James' ideal isn't a conga line around the bases by a bunch of all walk no hit guys. He, just like I said above, says the ideal is a lineup full of guys who can do both but if you have to pick a side to favor toward pick the OBP side.

Like I said, my comments weren't directed at you. It just seems some that spout off the OBP arguments act as if that is the only important factor. I think the biggest contribution of James' theories (that anyone has yet to truly apply) is the idea of getting away from "roles" in the lineup. You simply put your best guys at the top. That's why if Bruce rips it up in ST, I'd put him in the lead off spot. If he's anywhere near as good as advertised, he'll be far more productive than Hopper or Freel. I also advocated Hamilton at the top of the order last season for the same reason.

I'd personally like to see a lineup of:

Bruce
Phillips
Griffey
Dunn
Edwin
Votto
Gonzalez/Keppinger
Ross/Nacho Libre

I would even think of sliding Votto up into the #2 hole if he continues to mash. I'd prefer to see Griffey slide down to 5, but we all know that won't happen with Dusty.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Like I said, my comments weren't directed at you. It just seems some that spout off the OBP arguments act as if that is the only important factor. I think the biggest contribution of James' theories (that anyone has yet to truly apply) is the idea of getting away from "roles" in the lineup. You simply put your best guys at the top. That's why if Bruce rips it up in ST, I'd put him in the lead off spot. If he's anywhere near as good as advertised, he'll be far more productive than Hopper or Freel. I also advocated Hamilton at the top of the order last season for the same reason.

I'd personally like to see a lineup of:

Bruce
Phillips
Griffey
Dunn
Edwin
Votto
Gonzalez/Keppinger
Ross/Nacho Libre

I would even think of sliding Votto up into the #2 hole if he continues to mash. I'd prefer to see Griffey slide down to 5, but we all know that won't happen with Dusty.

Agreed on the lineup stuff but what we'll get is the old fashioned "fast guy" leading off. Its what makes me fear that Norris Hopper and Freel will get Bruce's time in CF because they are "leadoff" hitters and he's a more prototypical middle of the order guy.

I have zero positive expectation of Dusty's time in Cincy.

 

[coastalbuck]

I have zero positive expectation of Dusty's time in Cincy.

To that point I offer.... Sportsfrog

I laugh only so I don't cry.
I have started to collect Dusty Baker quotes in this spring training thread in the Swamp, but belatedly realize that my pain as a Reds fan might bring amusement to the rest of you. So, here's the highlights of Dusty Baker's first week of spring training quotations:

Oh, and I forgot to quote this gem...

At any rate, I consider it my duty to keep wanderers through this part of the 'net up to date on all things stupid said by Dusty. As a Reds fan, I guess I will consider it some sort of punishment. Not sure for what, but the pain has begun.

 

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

Cincy

Trade threw him a curve
RHP Volquez needs to trust his breaking stuff more
BY JOHN FAY | [email protected]

SARASOTA, Fla. - A week or so after the Reds acquired Edinson Volquez in a trade from Texas, he showed up at the Reds' camp in the Dominican Republic.
"He came on his own," said former Reds ace Mario Soto, the team's Director of Dominican Operations. "He wanted to throw."
So throw he did, thoroughly impressing Soto.

Continued.....

 

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

Cincy

Bruce takes gags in stride
Dunn instigates razzing of young outfielder to keep him grounded
BY JOHN FAY | [email protected]

SARASOTA, Fla. - Adam Dunn happened to use the word "sherpa" on Monday.
It wasn't long before Jay Bruce, the Reds' 20-year-old minor-league phenom, made his first mistake.
Bruce asked: "What's a sherpa?"

Continued......

 

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

Cincy

Anderson, Janish shine in intrasquad game
Brantley lauds Cueto's one-inning stint during intrasquad game
BY JOHN FAY | [email protected]

SARASOTA, Fla. - The Reds finally played a game Tuesday. The home white team beat the visiting gray team 8-2 at Ed Smith Stadium.
Two guys not often talked about in the big-league plans stole the show. Outfielder Drew Anderson went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer. Shortstop Paul Janish had a hit and made three outstanding plays.
"I saw good things," Reds manager Dusty Baker said. "Jerry Gil looked good. Anderson looked great. (Chris) Dickerson looked good. Janish made the three nice plays. No missed signs. That's what I like."

Continued......

 

[crazybuckfan40]

Lots of guys getting some good praise early...Really like early returns on Cueto and Voliquez...Also Bailey is taking an under the radar approach now that Bruce is the top dog in terms of top prospect and I like that as well...

 

[CookyPuss]

Listening to the first game of the spring today. A very welcome thing with flurries blowing around outside my window. Majewski's line - 1/3 inning, 6 hits, 6 runs. Cowboy says it will be tough to make this bullpen and the Magic Man had better make it out of spring training or "it will be very hard for him to get back into that major league uniform." 2 of those runs scored when Coutlangus served up a gopher ball that landed on the interstate according to Brantley. Reminded me of hitting the bull and winning a steak. Not a pretty day so far, but at least it's baseball.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Listening to the first game of the spring today. A very welcome thing with flurries blowing around outside my window. Majewski's line - 1/3 inning, 6 hits, 6 runs. Cowboy says it will be tough to make this bullpen and the Magic Man had better make it out of spring training or "it will be very hard for him to get back into that major league uniform." 2 of those runs scored when Coutlangus served up a gopher ball that landed on the interstate according to Brantley. Reminded me of hitting the bull and winning a steak. Not a pretty day so far, but at least it's baseball.

Majewski is as worthless now as the day they gave away actual MLB players for him.

 

[CookyPuss]

Lots of guys getting some good praise early...Really like early returns on Cueto and Voliquez...Also Bailey is taking an under the radar approach now that Bruce is the top dog in terms of top prospect and I like that as well...

I heard Baker on the radio the other night and they asked him about the young pitchers. He talked about Cueto and Voliquez and I'm not sure if he even mentioned Bailey. When asked about pitch counts, he said something like "who determines that number for each guy?" When asked about Bruce, he basically said that Freel's contract will be an issue and Bruce will have to "earn" the starting job. He compared the expectations to Bruce to some of those he faced coming up and said it was best when he was sent down to play every day rather than riding the bench. Frankly, I'll be surprised to see Bruce make the team out of spring training unless someone is hurt (and Baker definately left that option out there).

 

[CookyPuss]

Majewski is as worthless now as the day they gave away actual MLB players for him.

Brantley broke it down pretty good today. He said when he came up, his slider broke 6+ inches. Now it's flat, but Majewski keeps pitching like it is going to break 6+. Brantley said, "he'd better get another pitch."

Somebody named Rozadeles (sp?) just ripped one for the Reds to make it 8-1.

 

[CookyPuss]

On a sad note, Chief Bender passed away today. He was a major contributor to discovering the talent of the BRM.

 

[jlb1705]

Saw something on RZ about how Baker thinks putting the young starters in the bullpen to start off. I don't have an opinion one way or the other on whether it's actually good for the kids - but anything that gets Majewski, Stanton & Coffey fired is just fine by me. Hopefully Roenicke puts it together in the coming weeks. It'd be nice to have relievers that throw harder than me for a change.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

Bruce with a hit today to opposite field...