Reds Tidbits (2008 season)

[Mike80]

I put very little stock into Fogg's road splits while he was with the Rockies. In the NL West, that means most of his road games came in pitchers' parks in San Diego, LA and San Francisco. His home splits may be the better comp, but I think in the Coors Field humidor ERA, GABP actually plays a little more hitter-friendly.

Maybe, but outside of Milwaukee on a good day (for them), the offenses in the NL Central are almost as limited without being in pitcher's parks.

Seriously, the Reds may have the 2nd best offense in the division. Pittsburgh, STL (Pujols), Houston (Carlos Lee) and Chicago (Soriano) are all one-trick ponies most days and Pittsburgh's best hitter hit .246 last year.

 

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

Dispatch

Baseball notebook: Reds add Fogg's arm

Friday, February 22, 2008 3:04 AM



ASSOCIATED PRESS
Right-hander Josh Fogg agreed yesterday to a one-year contract with the Cincinnati Reds, who are trying to fill out their rotation.
Fogg, 31, will get a chance to win a spot in a rotation that is in flux after right-handers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez are competing for jobs.

 

[coastalbuck]

Enquirer

"This is the place I want to be," Fogg said. "I know some guys here. I played with (catcher) David Ross in college. I thought this was the best chance I had to help a club."

 

[Jaxbuck]

I do wonder how GABP compares to the pre-humidor (or even the post-humidor) Coors Field. I do know that looking at his splits, he was significantly better on the road than at home, so that might be a glimmer of hope for you all.

Fogg had a 4.94 ERA last year while pitching at Coors half the year. He also pitched about 165 innings too. He had a 5.97 ERA at Coors and a 4.15 on the road.

Like I said, given were the Reds are both with the big team and seemingly what they have in the minors, this is a steal right now assuming he pitches at all this year.

I put very little stock into Fogg's road splits while he was with the Rockies. In the NL West, that means most of his road games came in pitchers' parks in San Diego, LA and San Francisco. His home splits may be the better comp, but I think in the Coors Field humidor ERA, GABP actually plays a little more hitter-friendly.

IIRC, GABP is still less of a hitters park than Coors. I don't have the stats at hand but I recall being a shocked the last time I looked and saw how close to neutral GABP was.

I still think a lot of the Coors east rep GABP gets comes from having such consistenly shitty pitching from us and consistenly strong offenses from the Reds and, up untill recently, the NL central as a whole.

 

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

Cincy

Baker: Room to improve
BY JOHN FAY | [email protected]

Sarasota, Fla. Reds manager Dusty Baker spent a good part of the Thursday's workout on the mini-tower in the middle of the four backfields at Ed Smith Stadium.
He spent a lot of time taking notes. He liked what he saw for the most part.
?There are a few things I?ve got to address," Baker said. "We?re doing good but we can put a little more game effort into these fundamentals and drills."

Continued......

 

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

Cincy

Reds notebook
Wilson out of camp; Baker says no reason to go slow with Bruce
BY JOHN FAY | [email protected]

SARASOTA, Fla. - Craig Wilson, an outfielder and first baseman, is no longer in camp with the Reds.
Wilson, who was in camp Wednesday, apparently failed his physical. He had signed a minor-league deal with the Reds.
The Reds did not say why Wilson failed the physical and were non-committal about a possible return.

Continued......

 

[Jaxbuck]

There's more to being in the big leagues than just stats. Everyone is so stat-conscious. You get away from: Can he do the little things ... to play winning baseball?"

Dusty giving us insight into the word tracks he'll use to justify sitting the kids and playing the vets. Look for terms like "proffesional at bats", "proven winner" and my all time favorite "veteran presence" to be mixed and matched as needed.

This is the man who refers to walks as "clogging up the bases", so to hear him say stats are overrated isn't exactly shocking. What would probably be quite shocking is if some reporter asked him to list the things that are important to play winning baseball. I'd imagine his list would closely resemble Marty's and would include running out to your position on the field.

Its going to be another long year.

 

[CookyPuss]

Dusty giving us insight into the word tracks he'll use to justify sitting the kids and playing the vets. Look for terms like "proffesional at bats", "proven winner" and my all time favorite "veteran presence" to be mixed and matched as needed.

This is the man who refers to walks as "clogging up the bases", so to hear him say stats are overrated isn't exactly shocking. What would probably be quite shocking is if some reporter asked him to list the things that are important to play winning baseball. I'd imagine his list would closely resemble Marty's and would include running out to your position on the field.

Its going to be another long year.

Baker slow to warm to young Reds - MLB - Yahoo! Sports

 

[Jaxbuck]

Oh yeah, this is going to be another banner year.

In the same article he praises Gary F Majewski, Dusty gives us this gem:

Not down with OBP: Baker has repeatedly talked about the desire to have a do-it-all leadoff hitter with speed. What kinds of hitters is he looking for further down the lineup? Does he want guys with lofty on-base percentages? The answer will likely not sit well with fans of the book "Moneyball," because Baker said he believes the OBP statistic is overvalued.

"I'm big on driving in runs and scoring runs," Baker said. "Guys in the middle should score about close to equal to what they drive in. On-base percentage, that's fine and dandy. But a lot of times guys get so much into on-base percentage that they cease to swing. It's becoming a little bit out of control.

"What you do is run the pitcher's count up, that helps," Baker said. "You put him in the stretch, that helps. But your job in the middle is to either score them or drive them in. The name of the game is scoring runs. Sometimes, you get so caught up in on-base percentage that you're clogging up the bases."

No dumbass, the name of the game is not making outs. If you don't make outs, guys continue to come to the plate and runs will be scored you simple sonofabitch. So in this retards world a guy should swing at a shitty pitch he can't do anything with instead of take the walk so he doesn't clog up the bases. Fits well with Marty and company saying Dunn should choke up and just slap at the ball with two strikes. You just can't make this level of stupidity up, someone has to just say it.

Clogging up the bases....I mean seriously, how do the Reds finally get some young talent together, finally get something worth watching and go and find the single worst fucking retard dipshit of a manager alive on this planet to coach them? How the fuck does that happen? I ask again what in the name of all thats holy did we do as fans to deserve this pile of shit organization?



FUCK I hate being a Reds fan.

 

[crazybuckfan40]

Oh yeah, this is going to be another banner year.

In the same article he praises Gary F Majewski, Dusty gives us this gem:



No dumbass, the name of the game is not making outs. If you don't make outs, guys continue to come to the plate and runs will be scored you simple sonofabitch. So in this retards world a guy should swing at a shitty pitch he can't do anything with instead of take the walk so he doesn't clog up the bases. Fits well with Marty and company saying Dunn should choke up and just slap at the ball with two strikes. You just can't make this level of stupidity up, someone has to just say it.

Clogging up the bases....I mean seriously, how do the Reds finally get some young talent together, finally get something worth watching and go and find the single worst fucking retard dipshit of a manager alive on this planet to coach them? How the fuck does that happen? I ask again what in the name of all thats holy did we do as fans to deserve this pile of shit organization?



FUCK I hate being a Reds fan.

I understand what you are saying, but there is there is a little truth to both sides...

You don't want good hitters up there just looking at pitches to not make outs...

What you want is a guy that if he sees the first pitch is one he wants he tries to drive it...There are obviously times were a take a pitch strategy might be warrented, but there are also times when you need to say there is a guy on second and third and I am the guy that needs to drive them in, not take a walk and have a force at every base or a chance for a double play...I am not about swinging at bad pitches, but I am not about not swinging at one down the middle on a 3-0 count just to take a walk...

I am not going to jump on the hating of Dusty Baker just yet...He knows more about the game then the last group of 4 managers we have had combined...Guys like Smiley, Boone, Narron, and Mackanin...

I also think Cowherd made a great point about baseball managers being the least relied on managers/coaches in all sports...Basically they fill out a lineup card and make pitching changes...The only real strategy is hit and run and steal bases...Now I know there is more to that, but unlike the guys I mentioned above Dusty has won in this league before and he is smart enough to make good decisions...

I also think that the GM has as much to say about who plays and who doesn't in MLB as much as the manager...If he keeps Bruce and Bailey up after ST, that is telling me that they should play every day and be in the rotation...

 

[Jaxbuck]

I understand what you are saying, but there is there is a little truth to both sides...

You don't want good hitters up there just looking at pitches to not make outs...

What you want is a guy that if he sees the first pitch is one he wants he tries to drive it...There are obviously times were a take a pitch strategy might be warrented, but there are also times when you need to say there is a guy on second and third and I am the guy that needs to drive them in, not take a walk and have a force at every base or a chance for a double play...I am not about swinging at bad pitches, but I am not about not swinging at one down the middle on a 3-0 count just to take a walk...

Job #1 for a hitter: don't make an out (OBP)
Job #2 for a hitter: do some damage when you put it in play (SLG %)

Job #1 is more important than Job #2. The trick is finding guys who are good at both jobs(the AD's of the world) and not filling your lineup with guys you think are good based on counting stats like RBI and Runs scored but actually suck at Job's 1 and 2(the Norris Hoppers of the world).

 

[crazybuckfan40]

Job #1 for a hitter: don't make an out (OBP)
Job #2 for a hitter: do some damage when you put it in play (SLG %)

Job #1 is more important than Job #2. The trick is finding guys who are good at both jobs(the AD's of the world) and not filling your lineup with guys you think are good based on counting stats like RBI and Runs scored but actually suck at Job's 1 and 2(the Norris Hoppers of the world).

I understand this and I also believe that Dusty does too...He just goes about it in different ways, and has his own theory in terms of getting guys on and getting them in...

I think all that Dusty is trying to say is that he would rather have more of number 2 from the middle of the lineup...I can understand that you don't make an out my taking a walk, but, what if that leads to a guy behind you that is more than likely to make an out...Great your OBP went up, but what good did it do the team...

If guys in the 5 or 6 hole in our lineup take walks that means we are going to depend on guys like Gonzo and Ross to do damage...We all know where that will get us...

If I have my choice I want Dunn taking cuts over Dunn walking...

I am not saying there is anything wrong with looking at the stats, but at times stats aren't the end all be all...Just like Dunn and I am not knocking Dunn because guys that put up his numbers don't come around all the time, but how many times would you rather have Dunn taking his chances swinging than walking down to first base...Great he upped his OBP, but also look what follows him in the lineup...

 

[thedecline19]

everyone needs to let Dusty makes mistakes before they throw him under the bus for his comments. Going into the year expecting horrible, horrible things will only amplify every minor setback. I think Dusty is a good manager and I don't care what comments he makes, as long as he wins ballgames.

 

[CookyPuss]

I understand the OBP argument and appreciate stats like OPS much more than I ever did in the past. However, I have one major issue with the whole OBP is #1 argument. As Bill James states, it is based on the fact that every inning is theoretically timeless and infinite at bats are possible. If you just don't make outs, the inning continues and eventually you score runs. In theory this is absolutely true. In reality, it is not. Other than games that end in a last at bat, there are 3 outs in every inning. I know that there are volumes of statistical data that back up James' theories. I agree that the general principles are true. But I also believe that you cannot blindly apply them.

Are sacrifice bunts a waste of an AB? Most of the time, yes. In a close game with a tough pitcher on the mound, it might make the difference in scoring a run or not scoring a run. 1-1 game in the 8th inning with the starters going strong, the lead off hitter makes it to 1st. A sacrifice to 2nd means that it likely only takes 1 hit to score the runner. That means getting 1 hit before 2 outs. No sacrifice means you likely need to get 2 hits or a walk and a hit before 3 outs. Which is the higher probability? Again, it probably depends on who is coming up.

Dunn is always a fun debate. We know he takes more pitches than most, walks more than most, strikes out more than most, and strikes out looking more than most. He also hits more homers, drives in more runs, and scores more runs than most. If he took fewer pitches, would he get more hits and more homers and score/drive in more runs? Or would he just strike out more? It's tough to say. Judging by his "hot zone" data, he's pretty much a "mistake" pitch hitter. So, my hunch would be that Dunn swinging more would just equal more strike outs. It's frustrating as hell to watch him look at strike 3 in a close and late situation, but over time I've come to realize that unless it is a meatball down the middle or a "hanger," he would probably whiff at the pitch anyways.

These comments aren't directed in response to Jax or CB40's posts or Baker's comments in particular. Just some thoughts I've been kicking around for awhile that seemed relevant to the current conversation.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I understand this and I also believe that Dusty does too...He just goes about it in different ways, and has his own theory in terms of getting guys on and getting them in...

I think all that Dusty is trying to say is that he would rather have more of number 2 from the middle of the lineup...I can understand that you don't make an out my taking a walk, but, what if that leads to a guy behind you that is more than likely to make an out...Great your OBP went up, but what good did it do the team...

If guys in the 5 or 6 hole in our lineup take walks that means we are going to depend on guys like Gonzo and Ross to do damage...We all know where that will get us...

If I have my choice I want Dunn taking cuts over Dunn walking...

I am not saying there is anything wrong with looking at the stats, but at times stats aren't the end all be all...Just like Dunn and I am not knocking Dunn because guys that put up his numbers don't come around all the time, but how many times would you rather have Dunn taking his chances swinging than walking down to first base...Great he upped his OBP, but also look what follows him in the lineup...

If Dusty wants more SLG and less OBP from his middle lineup guys he will be in heaven with the Reds. Like I said the ideal is to get guys who are good at both but if I could choose which one of the two ways I would personally want my team to err toward it would be to #1 vs #2. I'll take my clogged up bases on a consistent basis thank you very much.

The high HR high strikeout Reds of the past decade are an example of too many free swinging-high SLG-low OBP guys on one team. If Marty and redleg nation are suddenly down with that its news to me, but it seems thats exactly the virtues Dusty is extolling.

Bottom line to me, its not about do I want my slugger intentionally walking vs slugging. No one actually does that. My problem with Dustys comments are the fundamental lack of understanding the so clearly convey.

Not suprising to me that he feels that way or that he fits in so well with the corporate-old school-Pete Rose was the second coming-culture of the Reds.