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Reds Tidbits (2007 Season)

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Jaxbuck;831196; said:
.02:

-RO flat owns our ass

-Once again the only run is produced by the guy who simply isn't a run producer

-Fuck!!!
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I've been trying to figure out this whole "not a run producer" thing for a while. The arguments for are that Dunn cannot hit a sac fly to save his life, he K's at record rates, and he seems to hit a good number of solo homers each year when the game doesn't "matter" (7th inning shot in a 8 run game). Okay, so what do the numbers tell us?

I looked at how many RBIs guys produce based upon situation (none on, runner on 1st, scoring position). I looked at Griff's career numbers and last 3 years and the percentages were roughly the same (I thought there would be a drop but there wasn't). Everyone else, I only looked career.

RBI per at bat
Player Empty On 1st RISP
Griffey .07 .16 .48
Dunn .07 .16 .39
Edwin .04 .08 .47
Phillips .02 .08 .36
Hatte .02 .08 .39

What this tells me is that Dunn is a better "run producer" without RISP than most, and probably a little above average with RISP. Griffey and Edwin are the guys your monsters with RISP. Just for curiosity, I looked up Aurillia's numbers from last year because he was so highly regarded as "clutch." He was a .40 guy with RISP, not really any better than Dunn and not as good as Griff or Edwin. He had a few "timely hits" that created this perception. What this info tells me is that Moron (I mean Narron) actually was onto something when he had Dunn-Edwin-Griff in that order. The only debate is whether you put Dunn at 2 or 3. I say 3 because that allows you to bat Hatte/Conine in the 2 spot. Also, if neither of the first 2 guys gets on, Dunn gives you the best chance of still making something happen. I have seen some stats that say lineups don't really matter (especially after the 1st two innings), but I wasn't able to determine if they factored for NL vs AL. I think it makes much more of a difference in the NL due to the pitcher spot. Anyways, based on what I see here, I'd go with a lineup of:

Hamilton (Best lead-off option with Freel on bench)
Hatte/Conine (Good bat control for hit+run/work count)
Dunn (most likely to produce with 1/no one on)
Edwin (RH most likely to produce with RISP)
Griff (LH most likely to produce with RISP)
Phillips (Low OBP keeps him from 2 spot)
Gonzo (Hot now, will regress to his norm)
Ross/Javy (You have to have a catcher)
Pitcher

(If Freel plays 3rd for Edwin, I bat Hamilton #2 and Conine #4 w/Hatte on bench).

I think this also puts your top 3 OBP guys in the top 3, which is where you want them. It makes no sense to put your top OBP guy (Dunn) in the 6 spot, where he is less likely to get knocked in. I love Marty, but he is dead wrong on this one. And Narron is stupid for listening to the idea if that's where he got it from. Dunn is very well suited for the 3 hole and will produce runs in droves in that spot both by knocking them in and getting on in front of Edwin/Griff.

Dunn is not a "contact hitter" is a true statement, that is very different than not a "run producer." I think in the NL you need a "contact hitter" in the 2 hole. Hatte/Conine are your best option there. Hamilton is still figuring things out and is going to take his rookie lumps. I think he will see alot of good pitches batting lead-off and he has some wheels. I was hoping Phillips would develop into a #2 hitter. He does seem to be taking more pitches, but he is still a hacker at heart. I would really like his speed at the top. He is far from your ideal #3 hitter, athough he is less likely than Dunn to hit into a "Casey."

As we all know, Narron will continue to fuss and fidget with the lineup card. I say you put Dunn-Edwin-Griff 3-4-5 every day and fuss with the rest if you want.

Edit: Except when Oswalt is pitching, then nothing matters. :biggrin:
 
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Let me first start out by saying Great Post!!!!

Second Narron has no method to his madness he just picks the names out of a hat...Like Tonite he takes Hamilton out of the lineup...

That is the part that pisses me off more than anything is just the overall turnover of the lineup night in and night out...

He has a high turnover rate in his lineup than McDonalds has in new employees...:!
 
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crazybuckfan40;832079; said:
Let me first start out by saying Great Post!!!!

Second Narron has no method to his madness he just picks the names out of a hat...Like Tonite he takes Hamilton out of the lineup...

That is the part that pisses me off more than anything is just the overall turnover of the lineup night in and night out...

He has a high turnover rate in his lineup than McDonalds has in new employees...:!
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I don't know about great. Just trying to look at it from another angle. I know I didn't use a "real" stat but was trying to find some way to quantify what each of these guys do with their RBI opportunities. The other factor is that Dunn walks more than the others with runners on. I think that also provides reason to put him at #3. He may not be great at advancing runners with a grounder, but a walk moves a runner from first to second just as well.
 
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Good post.

The Runs Created stat will also give you a real good look into who is and who is not a "run producer".

Don't get me started on the idiocy of the "meaningless HR" bullshit Marty and his minions like to spew. I just always ask them to take away the "meaningless strikeouts" at the same time. It usually shuts them up for a bit.
 
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Jaxbuck;832120; said:
Good post.

The Runs Created stat will also give you a real good look into who is and who is not a "run producer".

Don't get me started on the idiocy of the "meaningless HR" bullshit Marty and his minions like to spew. I just always ask them to take away the "meaningless strikeouts" at the same time. It usually shuts them up for a bit.
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Yeah, the runs created gives you an idea of who is "producing" runs, but it isn't much help in figuring where to bat guys in the order. Of course, now that Dunn is "producing" in the 6 hole, will Narron think its because he is there? Or will he have the brains to figure out that his back is better and he was due to get "hot" again after a little slump?
 
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MuckFich06;832178; said:
Yeah, the runs created gives you an idea of who is "producing" runs, but it isn't much help in figuring where to bat guys in the order. Of course, now that Dunn is "producing" in the 6 hole, will Narron think its because he is there? Or will he have the brains to figure out that his back is better and he was due to get "hot" again after a little slump?
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IMO you make your order based mostly on OBP, highest to lowest, and run it out there night after night. Let the odds work in your favor over the long haul.
 
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I know the stats don't bear it out, but I could see where somebody could argue anecdotally that Dunn doesn't drive in runs in crunch time. That's not to say that I agree with that argument - I seem to remember a game last year where Adam Dunn came up to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with the Reds down three, and he hit a grand slam to win it. Anecdotally, I could argue that he produces when it counts.

And you know, I was just sitting here bitching about Narron bringing in Manos de Oro to pinch hit in a runner in scoring position, because he is decidedly NOT a run producer. And then I got to thinking, at that very same game where Dunn hit the grand slam, MdO hit one out to bring the Reds within striking distance, so I guess anecdotally speaking, he is also a run producer. :tongue2:

I guess my point is, there is something to be said for statistics, and there's something to be said for seeing somebody play - but neither of those matter if you have your head up your ass.
 
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People tend to remember "exemplars" rather than the mundane. It's just the way our brain works. Dunn's stats over the past 3 years in "close and late" situations are a little better than his norm. By that definition he is "clutch." However, he Ks alot in general and therefore he is going to K alot in "close and late" situations. Those Ks stick out.

One thing the Reds just can't seem to do as a team is advance runners with outs. They have been terrible at this. I think they should try to steal more often because of this, but they have too many guys who are first pitch swingers... hard to run when you don't get a chance. I don't think it's important to play "small ball" every night, but you need to be able to do it against guys like Oswalt who aren't going to give many hits.
 
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Freel walks and Phillips smokes an RBI triple with no outs. Down one now, they gotta at least tie it up here.

...And Griffey gets the job done with a sharp grounder that goes off the glove of a drawn in infield...

And Griffey (of all people!) steals second and goes to third on the throwing error. They GOTTA take the lead here...

And Griffey scores on a sac fly by Conine! :) It's coming along fast and furious!
 
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And there was one of those "exemplars" of Dunn getting caught looking in a "close and late" situation. It's going to happen because of his approach to hitting, but it doesn't mean he does not produce. Doesn't make it any less frustrating to watch. I don't have the radio on, but I can hear Marty even though Dunn has been hitting of late.
 
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