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- Thread starter OSUBasketballJunkie
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coastalbuck;878641; said:
I know Dunner is about to get midly expensive but if WK can't get the right return we could do a lot worse than keeping that outfield intact and moving foreward.
Trade Hatte/Conine and bring Votto up and you now have young talented offensive players everywhere but SS.(well JR's not young but still productive).
Votto
BP
EE
Dunn
Hamilton
Jr
Your starting rotation going foreward is decent with Harang, Arroyo, HB, Belisle and maybe Cueto by next year.
The problem is still the pen(and the bench). Freel, Hatte, Conine, Nacho Libre, Lohse and Weathers need to be turned into a solid starter or some more pen help.
I know dealing JR and or Dunn will get you there quicker but you are going to absolutely gut the offense when you do that. I think Jay Bruce is pretty much a can't miss prospect but he can't be counted on to step in and replace that kind of production right away.
Anyway, in the hands of a competent GM we aren't that far from being a good team in a bad division. We shall see what special K does at the deadline to more than likely fuck that all up.
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CookyPuss
Screw Blue
Jaxbuck;878758; said:
I was starting to buy into that too. They are fun to watch when all healthy and hitting, but putting that much into Dunn and Griff still reminds me too much of when they retained Larkin and put way too much into Griff/Larkin and the team went nowhere when they were injured.
If they can find a RH OF (either through trade of Dunn or other means) who can replace Hatte's production at the plate and play +D and have plus speed, than I move Dunn. Votto seems like he might not slug as many homers as Dunn, but can possibly equal him in runs, RBI, and OBP. Votto is also likely and upgrade of Hatte on D. Those moves improve team D and speed, while lowering payroll and not giving much in overall offensive production. Hopefully, they would also have gained an additional stud prospect or two and are able to improve the pitching by some combo of prospects and FA $$.
I'm starting to get a little concerned about Hamilton's durability. All those years of drugs had to have taken a toll on him. Hopefully, I'm wrong. We all know Griffey's injury history, but hopefully Bruce will be a ready reserve by next season in case Griff goes down again.
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Jaxbuck;878758; said:
That is the most optimistic post I think I've read from you, and I can't say I disagree. When it comes to Dunn, Krivsky is in a position where he can demand a high return. Sure, it's not as tough to find corner outfielders as it can be to find production at other positions. However, Dunn's contract status means that unless some team comes and blows him away with an offer, he can say 'no' pick up the option on Dunn (which I believe will only cost the Reds $3M more - not that much of an increase in the grand scheme of things) and move forward. One the the main cogs in the offense would remain for next year, and if they're still intent on trading him at that point, they can try again - all while Jay Bruce gets one year closer to being able to step in and take over.
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MuckFich06;878774; said:
I don't think the Larkin/Griffey situation compares to the current situation at all. First of all, Larkin was in the twilight of his career and was signed almost purely for the purpose of having him finish his career as a Red. Dunn on the other hand is entering his prime, and even though we're talking about more money on a per year basis than the Larkin deal, it would only be a one-year option. Plus, compared to Carl Lindner, the current regime throws around money like PacMan Jones at a strip club. Lindner wouldn't part with a penny beyond those two contracts, while nowadays there's still a limited payroll, but they're willing to spend some money. They just seem to be clueless about what to spend it on.
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CookyPuss
Screw Blue
It was nice to see Griffey do well in the All-Star game. Right up to that Ichiro fluke ISTPHR it was looking like he might have a shot at MVP. His interview with Willie Mays was cool. I honestly can't get a read on the guy if he wants to stick around or not.
Maybe I'm giving Krivsky too much credit, but I'm getting the impression that he is actually doing the smart thing right now. This team is not gawd awful and he's not out there making deals just for the sake of making deals. I have a strong suspicion that Narron was trying to push for a trade for some BP arms and Wayne just wasn't going down that road again. I think he truly wants to improve the team but wants to wait for the best deals available. I'm certainly not convinced he will go the firesale route. He might if given several can't pass offers, but my guess that it will be 1 or 2 small/medium deals rather than several big ones.
I really wish they would just bring up Votto to get a look at him before they trade anyone. I know they could only get a very small sample, but it would be good to have a clue what this kid is going to be like a the ML level before parting with Hatte or Dunn. I've been beating the trade Dunn drum as much as anyone this year, but after watching the AS game last night, I realized I'd rather have him than half the OF in that game. That kind of surprised me. Anyways, I think Wayne knows what he has, perhaps an idea of what the team needs, and isn't going to do anything stupid soon. But that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Maybe I'm giving Krivsky too much credit, but I'm getting the impression that he is actually doing the smart thing right now. This team is not gawd awful and he's not out there making deals just for the sake of making deals. I have a strong suspicion that Narron was trying to push for a trade for some BP arms and Wayne just wasn't going down that road again. I think he truly wants to improve the team but wants to wait for the best deals available. I'm certainly not convinced he will go the firesale route. He might if given several can't pass offers, but my guess that it will be 1 or 2 small/medium deals rather than several big ones.
I really wish they would just bring up Votto to get a look at him before they trade anyone. I know they could only get a very small sample, but it would be good to have a clue what this kid is going to be like a the ML level before parting with Hatte or Dunn. I've been beating the trade Dunn drum as much as anyone this year, but after watching the AS game last night, I realized I'd rather have him than half the OF in that game. That kind of surprised me. Anyways, I think Wayne knows what he has, perhaps an idea of what the team needs, and isn't going to do anything stupid soon. But that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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I'm of the opinion that you keep Dunn. I think the smart teams understand that you have to pay for your good players. The inefficiency comes from all the money teams waste on the replacement level or worse guys.
In short don't pay the Castro's/Moellers and Cormiers of the world to do what you can get a young, cheap player to do. Be efficient in that regard and spending money on truely productive players isn't an issue.
You simply must trade Hatte and Weathers now. They are old and their value will never be higher, they aren't part of the future. Get what you can for Conine, Nacho Libre and Freel. Lohse is the big enigma to me. He sucks some serious ass when his 5-cent head gets involved but with the pitching market being what it is he's not likely to be that expensive for the MLB average production he gives you. Stanton needs to go one way or the other.
At this point if you can get a good deal for JR I think you should but again, his contract and 5/10 rights make that a big crapshoot.
In short don't pay the Castro's/Moellers and Cormiers of the world to do what you can get a young, cheap player to do. Be efficient in that regard and spending money on truely productive players isn't an issue.
You simply must trade Hatte and Weathers now. They are old and their value will never be higher, they aren't part of the future. Get what you can for Conine, Nacho Libre and Freel. Lohse is the big enigma to me. He sucks some serious ass when his 5-cent head gets involved but with the pitching market being what it is he's not likely to be that expensive for the MLB average production he gives you. Stanton needs to go one way or the other.
At this point if you can get a good deal for JR I think you should but again, his contract and 5/10 rights make that a big crapshoot.
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Tipdogusaf
Heisman
there is a guy on scout named buckdiego saying that larussa and jocketty from st louis are a done deal to the reds in 2008. he seems pretty legit having posted on the reds on previous occasions and nevada vouched for him.
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Tipdogusaf;880188; said:
I've been hearing that one a lot. Lets hope to God it comes true(and they bring Duncan with them). If so I hope BC takes WK's cell phone away and refuses any trades that dumbass might make.
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CookyPuss
Screw Blue
Jaxbuck;880147; said:
If the Reds do trade Dunn, I don't think it is because of money. I think it will be because he doesn't fit the type of team Wayne wants to build. Although, I'm yet to figure out exactly what that is. Given the ballpark these guys play in, having sluggers is not a bad thing. One thing that is clear is that with the current state of things, they can't score enough runs. They have to find some way to better that pitching staff. If they do trade Dunn, it's likely that they are going to lose perhaps as much as .5 run production per game. If that's the case, than they need to better that pitching staff ERA by a run a game. God bless Matt Belisle, but I have no clue if he is a long term solution in the rotation. I would actually like to see them audition him for the setup roll and try out the likes of Livingston, Saarloos, Dumtrait, and maybe even Elizardo if he gets healthy in that 5th starter spot.
If you jettison Weathers, the options are pretty limited for filling that closer spot. I could care less about this year, but you can't go into next season without someone in that role. Everyday Eddie can't be counted on, Bray has yet to prove anything, McBeth doesn't look to have the stuff... Burton and Salmon are the most intriguing to me as potential closers, but they have much to work on with their command before that day would come. You really aren't going to be able to sign anybody who is going to be that much more effective than Weathers and you are going to have to pay a Nathan, Linebrink, or Gagne a hell of a lot more money. I guess what I'm saying is that I wouldn't trade Weathers for anything short of an absolute stud pitching prospect, and unfortunately I think they'll be lucky to get that.
I totally agree with Jax about not overpaying for the roster fill. The most important aspect of the "Moneyball" method is cost per win... or how do you get the same production for less cost. You move away from traditional ways of evaluating players like "we need a power hitting third baseman" and a "fleet-footed centerfielder" and simply look at how can I get guys who will put the same amount of runs on the scoreboard while paying them less. If Javy gets you 25 pinch hits in a year, can you find a guy who can get you 20 for 1/5 the cost and spend the other 4/5 to improve the bullpen so that those other 5 hits aren't needed. I think WK fell into a trap of being given more money for the roster, but not enough to be a major player. Plus the Reds' situation wasn't exactly attractive to free agents. Hopefully, they can change that by getting the right guy in the manager spot...
Speaking of which, I don't know what I think about having LaRussa here. I've hated the guy for so long, I can't even remember why I started hating him in the first place. I would love to get Dave Duncan, so if that means LaRussa, no problem. If anybody can start fix this staff, it is Duncan.
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MuckFich06;880342; said:
I agree that WK could possibly be that damn dumb as to trade an Adam Dunn not for money but for his percieved style of play. Once again I say to WK, good pitching and defense teams don't have to be offensively challenged.
Trade Dunn and you are going to strike out less but make more outs. Marty, WK and people of that ilk will actually be happy about that. Morons.
Stormy is just a good middle reliever playing the best he can at this time. He can't keep it up or repeat it and his value will never be higher.
He's an example of a theory on the save stat that I happen to agree with. Any decent middle reliever can rack up a healthy amount of saves if he is used in the traditional closer role. You then flip that guy who is no more than a middle reliever for extra return to a GM that overvalues the stat save (and they are plentiful).
The real good arm should be used for whenever that high impact/critical moment arrives wether it be in the 7th, 8th or 9th. 2 on 1 out bottom 7 in a 1 run game with the meat of the other teams order coming up is more critical than up by 3 in the 9th and the bottom of the order for example.
Couldn't agree more. hard to imagine a bigger change than
WK/Narron/Pole turning into Jocketty/Larussa/Duncan.
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