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Reds Tidbits (2007 Season)

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Jaxbuck;880389; said:
Stormy is just a good middle reliever playing the best he can at this time. He can't keep it up or repeat it and his value will never be higher.

He's an example of a theory on the save stat that I happen to agree with. Any decent middle reliever can rack up a healthy amount of saves if he is used in the traditional closer role. You then flip that guy who is no more than a middle reliever for extra return to a GM that overvalues the stat save (and they are plentiful).

The real good arm should be used for whenever that high impact/critical moment arrives wether it be in the 7th, 8th or 9th. 2 on 1 out bottom 7 in a 1 run game with the meat of the other teams order coming up is more critical than up by 3 in the 9th and the bottom of the order for example.
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I agree with that for the most part. However, as most players will tell you, there is something different about pitching that 9th inning. Maybe if they got rid of that damned save stat or redefined it, the "pressure" would change. The Red Sox tried that approach a couple of years ago, but ended up abandoning it in favor of Keith Foulke. As for the Reds, I haven't seen anyone on this staff with the intesinal fortitude to handle 9th inning duties. I suppose you could stick Stanton out there as a stop gap, but he is even less of a long term solution. I wish Coffey would finally get his shit together. Hopefully, someone other than Weathers will show the ability to pitch in "critical" situations. Coutlangus is about the only one who has shown signs, be he is still far too inconsistent. I guess the whole problem with that theory is that you have to have some decent middle relievers.
 
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MuckFich06;880445; said:
I agree with that for the most part. However, as most players will tell you, there is something different about pitching that 9th inning. Maybe if they got rid of that damned save stat or redefined it, the "pressure" would change. The Red Sox tried that approach a couple of years ago, but ended up abandoning it in favor of Keith Foulke. As for the Reds, I haven't seen anyone on this staff with the intesinal fortitude to handle 9th inning duties. I suppose you could stick Stanton out there as a stop gap, but he is even less of a long term solution. I wish Coffey would finally get his shit together. Hopefully, someone other than Weathers will show the ability to pitch in "critical" situations. Coutlangus is about the only one who has shown signs, be he is still far too inconsistent. I guess the whole problem with that theory is that you have to have some decent middle relievers.
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That's about where I stand on Weathers, too. I'd rather give one of these clowns (Coffey by default?) a shot to close a couple games here or there this season without being the official "closer". I'd hate to see Weather's replacement get a trial by fire out there and end up so fucked in the head that he's no good for anything. Then again, a lot of these guys are no good for anything regardless of their mental state. :lol:

I also really like Weathers' temperment. He's one of the few guys on this team who visibly gives a shit about what happens out there on the field.
 
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I can see the reasoning behind all that but I guess I'd just ask whats the worse that can happen without Weathers? We lose 110 instaed of just 100?

He'll regress next year, maybe the second half of this year. His value is at an all time high, you must sell.
 
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Jaxbuck;880455; said:
I can see the reasoning behind all that but I guess I'd just ask whats the worse that can happen without Weathers? We lose 110 instaed of just 100?

He'll regress next year, maybe the second half of this year. His value is at an all time high, you must sell.
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As long as they can find someone for next year, I'm fine with that. I don't even think it would cost them much of anything this year.. they'd just blow a few games in the 9th instead of the 8th. :wink2:
 
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I was actually glad Bronson pitched as well as he did. They had a chance to win that game and could'nt get the run over. Oh well, 5 out of their last 7 is still a major step up. Can they bounce back or do they revert back to the "losing attitude" they've shown most of the last two months?

4 hits is just shitty thats all you can say about that. I don't really have a problem with either Freel's mistake or Phillips. They were hustle mistakes which I can live with. Phillips was a little worse but still not the end of the world. The 4 hits is awful.

Also good to see Burton in there in the end getting outs. Lets just see what happens here til the end of July. Hamilton on the DL isnt going to help but its a new season so who knows.
 
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Been looking ahead to next season to try to get a fell for who might be back and what the money situation is going to look like.The contract info came from HERE. Great site.

Good news! Milton's contract is gone and we get to stop paying for LaRue and Cormier. There's $15M (!!!) dropping of the books!

For 2008, the Reds have about $37.5M in contracts, made up of:
-$9M to Griff - estimate - deferred salaries are messy
-$3.95M to Arroyo
-$6.75M to Harang
-$4.625M to AGo
-$3M to Freel
-$2.75M to Stormy
-$3M to Stanton <----:smash:
-$2.525M to Ross
-$975k to Castro
-$925k to Coffey

Of this crew, Stanton and Castro HAVE to be gone. Waste of space and money. I wouldn't be terribly upset if Weathers and Freel were traded at some point this month. But they ought to at least try to get something decent out of it.

For 2008, they also have $19.15M in club options, made up of:
-$13M for Dunner
-$1.85M to Hatteberg
-$1.3M to Nacho
-$3M to Easy Eddie

I'd like to see them pick up the options on Dunn and Hatteberg, unless they can get antything for Hatteberg this month, in which case, do that. I'd really like to see them keep Dunn. Unless someone offers the barn, don't trade him. Valentin & Guardado? Eh, whatever. See if you can get something for Javy this year. If not, let him walk and find a younger, cheaper guy.

And finally, a mutual option for Conine at $2M. Pass.

At least $37.5M (no options) but as much as $58.7M (all options) tied up for next season.

Currently on roster, but with an expiring contract are (this season's salary):
-Lohse - $4.2M
-Saarloos - $1.2M
-Phillips - 407k
-Encarnacion - 407k
-Belisle - 390k
-Keppinger & Bray - 382.5k each
-Hamilton, Hopper, Burton, Coutlangus, Elizardo - 380k each

From this lot, hopefully they can trade Lohse here this month, but if not, I wouldn't mind seeing him back here, at a reasonable price. Gotta figure his head will get straightened out a some point, right? Maybe? What does a 5-10 record and 4.5 era cost these days? I'm guessing 5-6M per year...could be wrong. I wouldn't be pissed at a 2 year, 10M contract to him. He was arbitration eligible last off-season, so I assume that means he is again this year. Don't know how much that will affect the money. Saarloos...whatever. If he'll take a pay cut, maybe keep him for depth.

IMO, a longer-term deal for Phillips is a must. 3-4 years would be nice, with a pretty decent pay hike. I'm not sure what kind of money we'd be looking at for him, though.....5-6M per year? Thoughts? I'd also like to see Encarnacion with a couple year deal...maybe a couple years at 1-2M per? If he has a good season next year, work an extension...if not, not a huge deal. Hamilton is another I'd like to see get a 2 year deal. If he produces, we have an entire addl season to work out a better deal with him.

Belisle, Keppinger, Bray, Hopper, Burton, Cout, Lizard, etc....I don't see anything worthy of a longer deal at this point. Keep 'em around with 1-year deals.

I guess the main things I want to see are picking up Dunn's option and re-signing Phillips, Encarnacion, and Hamilton (and maybe Lohse) to multi-year deals. And shed the baggage. Get rid of guys making 1.5-3M per year to sit on the bench 85% of the time.

If they:
Trade Freel, Weathers, Stanton, Hatteberg and Castro,
Decline options on Guardado and Valentin,
Keep Griffey, Arroyo, Harang, Ago, Ross, and Coffey with existing deals,
Pick up option on Dunn,
And sign deals (est. amt) with Lohse (5M), Phillips (5M), Edwin (1.5M), Hamilton (1M), and Belisle, Keppinger, Bray, Hopper, Burton, Cout, and Lizard (all <1M), that will be about 58M, leaving another 10M to fill out the roster and keep the payroll about the same as this season's.

If anyone has a better thought about what kind of payraises these guys would get, I'd love to hear it so I could make a more accurate projection.

Wow! That's gotta be the longest post I've ever made. Sorry if the length kept you from reading it. :!
 
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I wouldnt mind seeing that 10Mil go for a devastating closer. If not then a very good closer and well above average middle reliever. With the young guys able to come up next season like Votto, offense shouldn't be a problem with the core thats already here. Stanton is pure garbage and everyone knows that. Conine is outta here for sure. The trade deadline approaches and who knows what we'll do if anything.

Don't look now but this ballclub has won 6 of 8. They will probably end up middle of the pack in the Central this season with what we have already on the roster. The appropriate tweaks could do the trick. The wrong moves could set us back a decade. Frankly I would'nt mind riding it out at this point unless a sweet deal for Hatte, Conine, Freel or Lohse comes along. I just feel in my gut that if we let Dunn get away we'll regret it for a very long time.
 
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Bestbuck36;881617; said:
I wouldnt mind seeing that 10Mil go for a devastating closer. If not then a very good closer and well above average middle reliever. With the young guys able to come up next season like Votto, offense shouldn't be a problem with the core thats already here. Stanton is pure garbage and everyone knows that. Conine is outta here for sure. The trade deadline approaches and who knows what we'll do if anything.

Don't look now but this ballclub has won 6 of 8. They will probably end up middle of the pack in the Central this season with what we have already on the roster. The appropriate tweaks could do the trick. The wrong moves could set us back a decade. Frankly I would'nt mind riding it out at this point unless a sweet deal for Hatte, Conine, Freel or Lohse comes along. I just feel in my gut that if we let Dunn get away we'll regret it for a very long time.
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None availible on the FA market this year that I'm aware of(closers that is). Overall in todays climate you pretty much have to homegrow your pitching or trade for them as prospects. Harang and Arroyo were trades but Arroyo is just a journyman who had a good half a year and harang was still an unknown. Those are the type of moves WK needs to make with his current trading chips.

I can live with riding it out on Dunn and JR but the others have to go. This little win streak doesn't mean anything, this team has some huge holes to fill.

Hatte, Conine, Freel, Nacho Libre, Lohse, Weathers and Stanton must all be turned into something imo.
 
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Isn't Gagne a free agent again after this season? I thought I saw that on ESPN earlier today. It doesn't matter though - I really don't want to see the Reds spend that kind of money on just one reliever when their entire bullpen stinks. Besides, the time to get Gagne for the Reds was this past offseason, not the upcoming one.

The Reds need to be looking at failed starters that have one plus pitch (whatever it may be) and convert them into backend relievers. Gagne is a perfect example of that kind of player. That's gonna be the most effective way for the Reds to develop a good bullpen. The problem the Reds have had over the past several years with respect to that approach is that they couldn't afford to do that because the starting pitching was so damn bad. Every failed starter that made their way to the organization remained a starter with the Reds because their rotation was so bad and so thin. Hell, the Reds were even trying to convert career bullpen pitchers into starters - the exact opposite of the way things typically and should work (Danny Graves, anyone?) Thankfully, that situation with the rotation is coming around, with guys like Harang and Arroyo, and some young guys on the verge of being able to fill the roles behind them effectively, meaning that they can start taking some of those failed starters that come through and turn them into stellar bullpen help (Ryan Dempster, anyone?)
 
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I'd spend 10million on Gagne all day, every day. We cut the dead wood in the bullpen and get some of the younger, livelier arms in there and who knows what you may find. Coffey and Coutlangus setting up for Gagne in the 9th? Hell yes I'd take that! Livingston still is looking for his niche and some of the other youngsters like Burton and maybe even Belisle in the pen could be pretty productive. We still have Cueto to come up maybe after the break next year or spring training 09 with Bailey developing now. I'll take a rotation like that with a bullpen that has some guts. Thats the problem right now, the guys coming into the game don't have the confidence or the stamina to get enough outs to win a ball game. If Larussa and Duncan come in here next season and tightens up the ship, we could already have most of the pieces in place and just don't quite know it yet.
 
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MLB Trade Rumors: 2008 MLB Free Agents

There is the list of free agents for next season, although it doesn't mark those with team options. Closers include Rivera, Nathan, Gagne, Isringhausen. Scott Linebrink is a setup man with closer potential. I would pay Joe Nathan before I would Gagne. Not sure what Linebrink would demand, but he might be a nice addition. I'm still not sold on paying for a closer. Burton seems to have the stuff and the mentality if he can get his command in shape. I'd rather see them spend money on a starting pitcher. At least if a starter fails, you have the option of trying him in the pen. Not much out there. Jason Jennings, maybe? He's had reasonable success in hitters parks. Of course, they could always take on some salary in an off season deal. I'm sure there are quite a few more player with less star power that will be available that will be more the type of guys the Reds are likely to go after. Let's see who gets traded in the next few weeks and what the return is. Could drastically reshape the team's needs.
 
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