A thought experiment concerning Stroud....
To follow is a list of ten of the most famous Buckeye pass plays this century (in chronological order):
- Holy Buckeye! (Craig Krenzel to Michael Jenkins vs Purdue in 2002)
- 4th-and-14 (Craig Krenzel to Michael Jenkins vs Miami in 2002 CFB title game)
- Coming Out Party (Troy Smith 68 yards to Anthony Gonzalez in the 2004 Game)
- The Catch (Troy Smith to Anthony Gonzalez in the 2005 Game)
- The Heisman Moment (Troy Smith to Brian Robiskie vs Penn State in 2006)
- 3rd-and-13 (Terrelle Pryor to Jake Ballard in 2010 Rose Bowl vs Oregon)
- The Wisconsin Hail Mary (Braxton Miller to Devin Smith in 2011)
- The Penn State Comeback (JT Barrett to Marcus Baugh for the win)
- Trickeration in the Sugar Bowl (Evan Spencer to Michael Thomas vs Alabama)
- The Clemson Dagger (Justin Fields 56 yards to Chris Olave in the 2020 playoffs)
Many of these plays were essentially game winners (numbers 1, 4, 7, and 8); and most of the rest were huge plays in huge games (numbers 2, 3, 6, 9, and 10). The only play that wasn't particularly consequential was Troy Smith's Heisman Moment, which came in 22-point win against a fairly mediocre Penn State team that finished 9-4 and #24/25 in the final polls.
How many of these plays does Stroud definitely make? How many does he definitely not make? There's no way to say with any degree of certainty, but I say that Stroud doesn't make numbers 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, all of which were mobile QBs creating something out of nothing; I also say that plays 1 and 2 were all about Craig Krenzel being a cold-blooded assassin and having superior pocket presence, two things that I have not seen consistently from Stroud; Stroud probably makes the last three plays fairly easily.