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Purdue at tOSU, Nov 13th, 3:30 ET, ABC

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Jaxbuck said:
Looks like the betting markets agree. OSU opens -19.

I wouldn't run to put the mortgage payment on Purdue based on how OSU looked the last two weeks.
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This line says a lot to me. After how OSU has looked the past two weeks and Purdue beating #3 MSU you would have thought the line would have been much lower. It feels like they're trying to get bets on Purdue which would obviously mean they think OSU should cover.
 
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DaBuckeyes said:
This line says a lot to me. After how OSU has looked the past two weeks and Purdue beating #3 MSU you would have thought the line would have been much lower. It feels like they're trying to get bets on Purdue which would obviously mean they think OSU should cover.
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Yep.

Generals are not the only ones always fighting the last war
 
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DaBuckeyes said:
This line says a lot to me. After how OSU has looked the past two weeks and Purdue beating #3 MSU you would have thought the line would have been much lower. It feels like they're trying to get bets on Purdue which would obviously mean they think OSU should cover.
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No.
The line is set with the intent of getting equal money from the public bet on each side.
I don’t know how you derive the sports books “obviously” think OSU will cover.
 
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cdiddy70 said:
No.
The line is set with the intent of getting equal money from the public bet on each side.
I don’t know how you derive the sports books “obviously” think OSU will cover.
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I never said that. I was saying IF they wanted to get more bets on Purdue then they think OSU would cover that line. Not all lines are set with the intent of getting equal action on both sides which IMO seems like the case here. I would be surprised if more bets are placed on OSU at that number for the reasons I stated.
 
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cdiddy70 said:
No.
The line is set with the intent of getting equal money from the public bet on each side.
I don’t know how you derive the sports books “obviously” think OSU will cover.
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Lines come from professional handicappers and then are shopped to select sharps before they are sent out to the public.

Propeller heads came up with a number in the ballpark of -21 and they sent it out to their early line guys. How they reacted to the price is what led to an opening line of -19.

How the line goes from here is based on what the public does to a degree. OSU is a notoriously largely bet, public money team.

They know they won't likely get even money against a team like Purdue so, in my opinion, they are hoping they get the average joe six pack to say "OSU struggled against Nebraska, Nebraska sucks so that's way too many points for OSU." and bet on Purdue knowing what the original propeller head numbers say it most likely will be.
 
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Mike80 said:
Be that as it may be, I think +19 is a bit much and would probably take Purdue +19 at this point.

I think Ohio State wins - something like 40-28 or something. I just see nightmares of bubble screen after bubble screen after bubble screen .....
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Get ready for that. The run defense has been great the past 5 weeks and teams are using that as their run game. No one is just lining up man for man and running at us at this point. Weird options that suck Zach down inside are still working some, grrrrrr. But The LB play has been so much better that the other teams are not getting anywhere on the ground.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Lines come from professional handicappers and then are shopped to select sharps before they are sent out to the public.

Propeller heads came up with a number in the ballpark of -21 and they sent it out to their early line guys. How they reacted to the price is what led to an opening line of -19.

How the line goes from here is based on what the public does to a degree. OSU is a notoriously largely bet, public money team.

They know they won't likely get even money against a team like Purdue so, in my opinion, they are hoping they get the average joe six pack to say "OSU struggled against Nebraska, Nebraska sucks so that's way too many points for OSU." and bet on Purdue knowing what the original propeller head numbers say it most likely will be.
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I'm not a gambler. I think the last time I bet money on the Buckeyes in a casino was 2nd round of March Madness probably 1999. I think the Buckeyes were playing Detroit-Mercy, or something like that. Maybe a 4-12 matchup. I think Ohio State was favored by 5-1/2. That's all irrelevant.
What I came here to say is that this reminds me of maybe 2017, when Ohio State was going to host Michigan State. They might have just lost to Iowa. Anyway, It was something like #10 vs #11, with Michigan State having the better rank. Ohio State opened as huge favorites - 14 points or something. I thought that was nuts. If I was a gambler, I would have put a lot on Sparty. I think the line went up to maybe 18, and Ohio State won about 40 to 10. As it was explained to me, that was Vegas gambling. Normally, they want about half the money on each side of the line so they break even on the bets, and then they make their commission. But in strange cases like this, they gamble that the public will want to bet that it will be a close game. They think it will not be a close game. They put the line at a spot where most of the money will come in on one side, and that side will not be the winning side.

Again, I'm not a gambler. I don't know if they work this way. I don't even remember what nerd explained this to me. It could have been some jerk that I probably shouldn't be listening to.

I hope I'm right, though, because that would mean a lot of points for Ohio State. Or else Vegas will lose a lot of money.
 
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"I mean, you guys saw — it was just a great day for us," Brohm said. "Our guys came ready to play. They knew what the challenges were ahead of us. We've played pretty well. Sometimes, we haven't. That's kind of the football season. And how you respond to adversity and how you respond to things that are going well and how you respond to when things aren't will determine what you can become, and I think our assistant coaches are great people. They work extremely hard, put up with me. They give it everything they've got and they care about our players. And we've got a group of guys that are really hungry. We've had some adversity along the way and it's not always fun, but that's football and that's what trains you to be successful in life afterwards.

"So our guys hung in there. They've been great teammates. They're unselfish. They play till the end. And to come out here and beat a really good Michigan State team that was 8-0 and the way we did, it's just a great testament. And also, I'd like to thank the fans. It was a big emphasis for us, as coaches and our team, that the last couple times we were out here we didn't win. And our fans have been showing up and they've been a big part of this. And our players want to, obviously, please the man upstairs and themselves and their families. But they also want to please all these students and fans that come to the game and support us. So it was great to get a big win for them. It was great for them to enjoy it as much as we did. And it's truly just a great win for our program."

Just sayin': Last week I did think Nebraska could be a "trap game" and it could have been (i.e. the game was closer than it should have been); fortunately we did take care of business and came away with a win. This week I don't think we will be looking ahead at Sparty. I don't think we need bulletin board material. I don't think we will take Purdue for granted. I think we come ready to play and put the plungers to Purdue.

27217831-group-of-plungers-one-plunger-made-of-precious-wood-and-gold.jpg


And in case Purdue brings their marching band there is even one for the "golden girl"......:lol:
 
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Zurp said:
As it was explained to me, that was Vegas gambling. Normally, they want about half the money on each side of the line so they break even on the bets, and then they make their commission. But in strange cases like this, they gamble that the public will want to bet that it will be a close game. They think it will not be a close game. They put the line at a spot where most of the money will come in on one side, and that side will not be the winning side.
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That is the exact scenario I am describing.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
That is the exact scenario I am describing.
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I remember this same conversation between you and a couple posters from the ‘17 Sparty game. Welcome to reverse line movement.

Starts here (though there was some gambling talk on the pages prior).
https://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum...1-17-12-00-et-fox.652722/page-16#post-2956005

Is that same thing happening here? Don’t know, haven’t done enough research into where the money is going (and by whom), but it’s fishy enough. Eventually Purdue has to take their beatdown…
 
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OHSportsFan said:
I remember this same conversation between you and a couple posters from the ‘17 Sparty game. Welcome to reverse line movement.

Starts here (though there was some gambling talk on the pages prior).
https://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum...1-17-12-00-et-fox.652722/page-16#post-2956005

Is that same thing happening here? Don’t know, haven’t done enough research into where the money is going (and by whom), but it’s fishy enough. Eventually Purdue has to take their beatdown…
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Well, I don't know the according to Hoyle definition of reverse line movement because technically the majority of the money won't be on Purdue but it's like that in all other aspects.

In my head I watch out for these kind of lazy logic/transitive set ups. For example..."OSU's offense has sputtered lately, Purdue has upset two top 5 teams therefore Purdue +19 is way too much..."

I've walked into that brick wall face first way too many times in my day to not notice the self dialogue that leads to such events.

One thing I have learned to do over the years is mentally take the other side of the bet and see how comfortable I feel then. For those who think OSU -19 (it's more now) is too much, then mentally own putting down your usual, comfortable bet amount on Purdue getting the points. It usually cuts through all the self doubt for me.
 
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