With what looks to be a split tonight with the Blue Jays, the Orioles magic number is around 5 (fuzzy mental math included).
There are 9 games left for the Angels. The Wild Card can only be 6 teams now in the AL - the O's, the A's, the Skankees (if the O's by some miracle win the East), the Rays, the Tigers (or White Sox) or the Angels.
First off - the Tigers and White Sox aren't going to leap the 2 teams ahead of them for a Wild Card. Whoever wins that division is in while the loser is likely out.
The Rays are 5 back of the Orioles, and 3.5 back of the Rays. And that's with the Angels in between. That's a tall task for a team with limited offense and who has had to go on a tear just to get back into the discussion.
If the Orioles get to 93 wins I think they will be in. Now watch them go on a 9 game losing streak. 2 more @ Toronto, 3 vs. Boston and then 3 @ Tampa. If they somehow go 6-3 they will get in. Even 5-4 and I think they are good to go. Between the Orioles, A's and Angels, the Angels or the Orioles probably have the easiest schedule on the way in.