Statistical Projection: Ohio State vs. TCU
We’re now two games in on this stat projection train, and cruising along pretty well. This past week, with another blowout of Rutgers, we came close on our prediction for passing completions for Dwayne Haskins (19 to 20), nailed Sean Nuernberger hitting his first field goal (albeit in the wrong quarter), and had Kendall Sheffield snagging an INT. We also got the combined sack tally between Chase Young and Nick Bosa right, had a rushing TD for J.K. Dobbins, and had Johnnie Dixon finding the endzone.
What I did not foresee was Tate Martell coming in and walking on water to the tune of 10/10 passing in addition to almost 100 yards on the ground. As for projecting the wide receivers’ stats, well, I swung and missed there. Sure, Dixon caught the TD, but he also added another one and that was just the guy that I was closest on. I’ll be throwing darts for the rest of the Zone 6 crew, as that might improve my odds of getting some stats right.
The Buckeyes head south to Jerry’s World in Arlington, Texas for this weekend’s game against the Texas Christian Horned Frogs since nobody understands the meaning of the word neutral. If I pegged the last two contests as difficult for projecting stats, going against a good team who’s only played mediocre competition thus far should be even tougher. But, that’s why I’m here.
September 15 – Ohio State vs. TCU
Game Summary
Ohio State and TCU have only met six times, with the most recent matchup taking place in 1973, six years prior to our Interim Head Coach’s birth. Of those outings, the Buckeyes have walked away victorious four times, lost once, and pulled a Browns/Steelers in the other.
To date, neither the Bucks, nor the Horned Frogs, have gone up against a Murderer’s Row of competition, so it’s difficult to say exactly what will take place. The location of the game (again, not neutral whatsoever) being just miles from TCU’s campus, might be a factor. However, the Buckeyes have actually taken the field there more recently than TCU, having played the Cotton Bowl there on December 29th of 2017.
As I’m typing this up, the Buckeyes are 13 point favorites. It’s my belief that OSU will revert back, a bit, in the playcalling, taking a conservative approach and running the ball with Dobbins and Weber in the opening quarter. With success there, Haskins will get the green light and will hit several big throws. Though much closer than the other games, I see the Buckeyes maintaining a two-score lead for much of the middle of the game and opening it up late in the contest.
Quarterback Projections
With two games as a starter under his belt, I remain very confident that Dwayne Haskins is one of the best quarterbacks that I’ve seen wear the scarlet and gray. His ability to read a defense, work through progressions, and deliver a ball to a spot where only his receiver has a play on it is remarkable. He’s most certainly a different player than we’ve had in recent years, but that’s not a bad thing.
In addition, Buckeye Nation breathed a sigh of relief last weekend, as Tate Martell came into the game and didn’t look anything like a backup. No, he only put up the single most perfect performance in Ohio State football history, completing all ten of his pass attempts, including a slightly underthrown TD to Terry McLaurin. He also crushed Rutgers on the ground, scampering for 95 yards and a score with his feet.
The OSU QB Machine is cruising along, and though they face their toughest test of the non-conference slate, I have faith that they’ll continue rolling. I see Haskins getting the vast majority of the work, with a couple of looks for Martell as well. I see Martell punching in a fairly short TD run, and Haskins adding three more passing TDs to his resume. Once the ground game is established, Haskins packs on the yardage, besting the 250 mark and again completing more than 65% of his throws. He does, however, let one get away, resulting in his second INT of the season.
Running Back Projections
As I mentioned above, I see OSU and Ryan Day leaning on the run game early as they feel out their opponent. This means a lot of carries for Dobbins and Weber, and some short/intermediate pass routes right off of the bat. Once they’ve settle in and moved the ball downfield, Haskins will open it up through the air, which will only help to bump up the yards-per-carry for #2 and #25. I think both will have success on the ground, each gaining over five yards per carry, and both finding the endzone in this game.
I think Dobbins also gets back onto the stat sheet in the receiving column, pulling in one pass for about eight yards. Weber stays ahead in the overall yardage count, but Dobbins makes up a little bit of ground, breaking the 100-yard mark. This will be the first game that we don’t see significant (or any) playing time from the freshman tandem of Teague and Snead. I think the Buckeye coaching staff will lean on the veterans throughout this entire game, regardless of the score.
Entire article:
https://theozone.net/2018/09/statistical-projection-ohio-state-vs-tcu/
