Well, we're up to post # 173 on this thread, so I suppose somebody should try to actually analyze this game.
I. Strengths and Weaknesses:
Florida has the following strengths that OSU has to worry about most:
1. Exceptional overall team ball movement from all positions which results in superior offensive balance and makes them difficult to pressure in the half-court. They lead the country in FG percentage and shoot 40% from behind the arc NOT because they're outstanding pure shooters (except for Humphrey), but because they take the right shots at the right times).
2. Exceptional offensive rebounding and second-chance scoring: They're big and strong and because their ball movement leads them to take good shots and gets defenders out of position trying to catch up, they're typically in position to hit the offensive glass.
3. Defensive recovery and intimidation: It seems like a lot of teams can get into the lane against UF, but few can finish with consistency. Their help defenders block and alter a lot of shots and seem to have an uncanny knack for doing so without having fouls called on them (I think it's good fundamentals whereby they foul with their hips and keep their arms straight up but I'd have to slow down film to be sure).
4. Experience.
They have the following weaknesses (or at least non-strengths) that possibly can be exploited:
1. So-so ball handling: While UF PASSES exceptionally well as a team, their guards are not great ball handlers and they actually turn the ball over more than one might think. This results in part from:
2. Not as much quickness as most people think. UF's ability to pass exceptionally well as a team and to thereby keep defenses off balance with great execution makes them seem quicker than they are. I believe OSU can limit UF's dribble penetration with straight man-to-man defense on the perimeter by Butler and Conley.
OSU has the following strengths that UF has to worry about most:
1. Exceptional ball handling and perimeter quickness: Even now, many don't understand how truly great Mike Conley is, and Butler handles the ball as well as many PGs in the game. Having Ron Lewis as a second dribble-drive option against the bigger Gators is also a potential advantage. The Bucks don't turn the ball over much and steal it quite a bit.
2. Oden . . . if he gets to play. When he's on the floor, he can clean up offensive misses in the paint when UF tries to intimidate Conley and Lewis after dribble penetration. He can score over anyone UF can guard him with, and, most importantly, he allows other OSU defenders to stay at home.
The Bucks have the following weaknesses that possibly can be exploited:
1. An absence of interior defensive presence when Oden's out of the game. OSU survived this vs. Georgetown, but I don't believe that they can do so against UF.
2. Occasional defensive lapses in spotting perimeter shooters.
3. Defensive balance in transition. OSU depends heavily on dribble penetration, which leaves them vulnerable to fast breaks when they don't finish those drives with hoops or harm.
II. Narrative analysis:
I consider this to be a pick 'em kind of game. UF thrives on balance, so the biggest keys defensively for OSU IMO are defensive discipline and the willingness to make a conscious choice to take something specific away . . . even if you have to give up more of something else. Specifically, I think the Bucks need to take away the three-point shooting of Humphrey and Green even if that opens things up more for UF in the paint. I would come out in a straight man-to-man defense, play soft on Noah except when he's on the block and insist that everyone stick to and block out their man rather than trying to block shots upon dribble penetration: Let 'em have a few lay-ups if they can dribble drive but take away the threes, the second chances, and Noah's passing: Maybe Noah or Brewer can beat the Bucks with outside shooting, but I'd rather take my chances with that than with other options. Assuming UF starts beating the man-to-man inside, mix things up with the matchup 2-3 zone, and the junk combo defense I think could be very effective in this game: The triangle and two. I'd also use a bit of man-to-man full-court pressure just to knock them a bit off-kilter without really risking much. The key isn't so much to stop UF, but to not overreact to their passing and thereby allow them high-percentage shots and to make them think just enough to slow their ball movement, mess up their rhythm, and make them a bit tentative.
Offensively, the key for OSU is getting positive results from dribble penetration. When Conley and Lewis take it into the lane they must go STRONG and either score or force UF to foul. Same with transition opportunities: UF is masterful into turning an opponent's fast break or dribble penetration into a blocked/altered shot and quick points the other way by stifling the drive with intimidating help defense in the paint . . . and the Bucks cannot allow themselves to be intimidated.
If I'm UF, I'd try to bully the Bucks until the refs tell me I can't. I'd go right at Oden to get him out of the game and then let Horford and Brewer abuse Hunter and Terwilliger. I'd pound it inside early and hope the Bucks get frustrated enough to double the post and leave either three-point shooters or offensive rebounders open. Defensively, I'd mug dribble penetrators until the refs tell me I can't. If the Bucks are successful at dribble penetration early, I'd trap Conley, make him give up the ball, and hope Butler, Harris, and Lewis, are cold.
In a word, the key here for OSU is PATIENCE: A Horford power dunk may seem demoralizing, but is still just two-points and may not require adjustments (see Hibbert yesterday). UF spurts because teams start chasing them around, and OSU needs to just be rock-solid and make them earn everything.
Thanks for the heads up, I'll clean up their braindead caption. Lighty, Harris & Conley get mixed up constantly by the typists at AP/Getty.
) great work.
