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Is JT's NC Window Closing?

lvbuckeye;1657712; said:
it may be fairly obvious to only consider his D1A championship, but it also may be fairly obtuse to do so.

Buckeyeskickbuttocks;1657774; said:
Then make your own list.

He just did.

For championship purposes, college football was pretty much without divisions until 1973. Since that time, Jim Tressel is the ONLY man to win a national championship at the I-A level and at least one other at any division below that.

So, I agree that looking past Jim Tressel's other championships is a bit obtuse.

  • More than half the championships in LJBs list came from outside of the current college football structure. The championships in the list were determined by different methods too (straight polling, Bowl Alliance, BCS) To consider Tressel's accomplishments at Youngstown State in my opinion is not comparing apples & oranges any more than is already being done.
  • Even if you don't care to consider Tressel's I-AA championships in this list, the fact that he has accomplished something in championship history that nobody else has ever done, I think it's foolhardy to rule out the possibility of him doing something else that few or no others have done before.
Maybe I'm still on a high from the Rose Bowl, but the team that he has right now and the optimist in me chooses to think of this not as a window closing, but a chance for Jim Tressel to do more extraordinary things to distinguish himself in the history of college football.
 
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Ok, well... maybe I'm just not good with numbers and trends and so on... but.. if Tressel is the only coach to win championships at the D-IAA and D-IA level, doesn't that actually lend support to the idea that winning multiple championships is quite rare indeed? (incidently, jlb, I figured Tress was the only guy on that list, but thanks for doing the work in determining that for sure)

I mean, christ people... it's a trend LJB noticed, it doesn't mean Tressel can't win another championship, whether we "count" his D-IAA time or not... it's not some kind of rule - "Win 2 in 7 or your shit out of luck" - written by the football gods. And I don't think LJB was trying to put together some kind of air tight scientific analysis. He noted a trend that he found interesting.

Frankly, I think what is pissing people off is that someone made a list of "great" coaches and Tressel didn't make the cut.
 
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MililaniBuckeye;1657988; said:
We have a solid chance of playing for the NC this year or/and next year. I'd say the window is still letting in quite a bit of breeze...
Yes. But, it has nothing to do with historical trends. I mean, if this was 2003 (ie just 1 year after Tressel's first D-IA championship) OSU's chances of getting to and winning the title aren't effected by LJB's window analysis.

Just the same, because it's 2010, Ohio State - or Tressel, I guess - is not foreclosed from winning a NC...

I mean, what is the fucking problem here? It's an interesting piece of anecdotal information that LJB found. It's not a Law of the Universe, and I don't think LJB is trying to argue that Tressel's lost any chance to win a second D-IA title. He's just noting that its unlikely, historically. Or, if you prefer, should Tress pull it off - he'll be in rare company indeed.

I don't get all the friggin hub bub about it.

Incidentally, thinking about it - if we include Tressel's D-IAA titles.... what happens? I mean... it's "obtuse" to not include them, so .. let's include them... what does it mean for 2010? What's that? Nothing? Quite right.
 
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Buckeyeskickbuttocks;1658004; said:
Yes. But, it has nothing to do with historical trends. I mean, if this was 2003 (ie just 1 year after Tressel's first D-IA championship) OSU's chances of getting to and winning the title aren't effected by LJB's window analysis.

I'm simply answering the thread title question.

When we went into the 2006 NC game against Florida, Tressel was 3-0 in BCS bowl games and 1-0 in NC games...so much for that "historical trend" helping us on Jan 8, 2007, eh?

LBJ's analysis may suggest it's tough to do, but Tressel isn't the run-of-the-mill head coach with a national title on his resume. It took him six seasons to make it to (and win) his first national title game...he then had six title games in nine seasons--winning four--including four title games in a row (which is still the I-AA/FCS record if I'm not mistaken).

Bottom line is that Tressel doesn't fall within LBJ's suggested historical limitations.
 
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MililaniBuckeye;1658057; said:
I'm simply answering the thread title question.
Fair enough. I happen to agree with you that Tressel's window isn't "closing" as I agree with you that he's got the "ship heading in the right direction" still and all that.

When we went into the 2006 NC game against Florida, Tressel was 3-0 in BCS bowl games and 1-0 in NC games...so much for that "historical trend" helping us on Jan 8, 2007, eh?
Yeah, it'd be nice if any of that was helpful considering the egg the Buckeyes laid that night.
LBJ's analysis may suggest it's tough to do, but Tressel isn't the run-of-the-mill head coach with a national title on his resume. It took him six seasons to make it to (and win) his first national title game...he then had six title games in nine seasons--winning four--including four title games in a row (which is still the I-AA/FCS record if I'm not mistaken).
Well, it is tough to do, no? Even if we include Tressel's D-IAA wins, only 19 (including Saban too) coaches out of the hundreds (thousands?) who have coached college football can claim multiple titles. (Although, the numbers - as is - also could be read to say that 54* of 73 titles awarded from 1936 thru 2009 have been won by 18 coaches, suggesting that multiple winning is something of a "normal" occurrence - it happens 74% of the time)

But even still, using Tressel's D-IAA titles, all that means is Tressel fits in to the category of coaches who win multiple titles in a limited chunk of years (10 years or so, in Tressel's case (1991 - 2002). The question of if that chunk of years is going to be "it" for Tressel could be counseled, then, by the analysis of how many coaches in the set went beyond 10 years from first to last title, or consideration of how long between 2nd to last title and last title, or whatever.

I guess I'm just saying people seem to be trying to give meaning to LJBs post which I don't think he intended.

* - I included Saban as a multiple winner on this one too
Bottom line is that Tressel doesn't fall within LBJ's suggested historical limitations.
Well, like I said directly above - even if he did (by including his D-IAA titles) there's no real answer to whether or not his "real life window" is open, closed, or anything else. Trends-wise, I would think it's just as hard or harder to win a title 18 years after your 1st than it is to win your 6th title 8 years after your 5th. Indeed, without going back, it's an even smaller handful of coaches who've been able to pull that off, no?

Anyway, like I said - I don't really have a dog in this fight. I just think people were/are giving too much implied meaning to what LJB was saying. It's anecdotal evidence that winning multiple championships is tough to do. Even those who have done it - and even if we include Tressel - defy the odds (Though as I pointed out above, once you do win a title, your chances seem to go up quite a bit that you'll win another at some point). And... at some point, the window closes. LJB just offered an interesting trend when one considers the issue - he wasn't trying to define or reveal some law of nature that must be obeyed.
 
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Buckeyeskickbuttocks;1658094; said:
But even still, using Tressel's D-IAA titles, all that means is Tressel fits in to the category of coaches who win multiple titles in a limited chunk of years (10 years or so, in Tressel's case (1991 - 2002). The question of if that chunk of years is going to be "it" for Tressel could be counseled, then, by the analysis of how many coaches in the set went beyond 10 years from first to last title, or consideration of how long between 2nd to last title and last title, or whatever.

Why do you leave out the six years it took him to get to his first NC game? LBJ's example specifically cited those who won NC within their first two years at the school they won the NC. Tressel took awhile to get his first, and then consistently had his team in the title game. He has similar at Ohio State, albeit with not quite the success rate.
 
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Buckeyeskickbuttocks;1658094; said:
I guess I'm just saying people seem to be trying to give meaning to LJBs post which I don't think he intended.

Anyway, like I said - I don't really have a dog in this fight. I just think people were/are giving too much implied meaning to what LJB was saying.

And... at some point, the window closes. LJB just offered an interesting trend when one considers the issue - he wasn't trying to define or reveal some law of nature that must be obeyed.

Sure seems like you're vouching for LJB. Are you vouching for LJB? Because if you're vouching for LJB; then that doesn't bode well for LJB based on previous vouching.

:tongue2:
 
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