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Is JT's NC Window Closing?

LordJeffBuck;1413756; said:
Tressel had a chance to turn that 2002 squad into a dynasty, but fell short in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2007.
LJB, you seem to believe that establishing a "dynasty" is an important thing. I'll go on record as saying that establishing such a "dynasty" outside of the sun belt is essentially impossible today, given the priorities of young men once football practice is over.

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or

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LordJeffBuck;1413358; said:
How about JoPa in 1986? Back then, did anyone think that he'd be shut out for the next 20+ years?

I think people thought JoPa was old in 1986. I think that is a bad example because he had an undefeated season in 1994 where Penn State should have had at least a share of the National Championship.
 
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Buckeyefrankmp;1414872; said:
I think people thought JoPa was old in 1986. I think that is a bad example because he had an undefeated season in 1994 where Penn State should have had at least a share of the National Championship.
And even then he's been in contention three times since 1994 up until late season losses, like in 1999 where they had that horrible three game stretch losing to Minnesota by 1, Michigan by 4, and Michigan State by 7, which ruined an otherwise perfect season. Then again in 2005 with the 2 point, last second loss to Michigan, and of course last year with the 1 point, last second loss to Iowa. Ouch... glad I'm not a Nittany Lion fan.
 
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LordJeffBuck;1413113; said:
Since national polling began back in 1934, seventeen head coaches have won multiple national championships as recognized by the sports writers (AP) or college football coaches (UPI, BCS, etc.):

Only eight of the seventeen coaches who have won multiple NC's have done so during a period of eight years or longer ... and three of those eight won all of their NC's within a period of exactly eight years. Only five head coaches have been able to win multiple NC's over the course of a decade or more - Bryant (19 years), McKay (17 years), Hayes (15 years), Switzer (12 years), and Leahy (11 years) - and each of those head coaches won at least three national titles.

not sure if this is important or not but 8 of 17 is just a hair under 50%... oh and 5 of 17 is just a touch under 30%... neither of which are particularly bad odds.
 
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No the window is not closing for the following reasons.

1)- The Big Ten sucks. The Big Ten as a whole hasn't had a winning record in bowl games since 2002. This isn't the same big ten in the 90s where it was a mine field and there were amazing teams. Most people could argue the Big Ten as a whole was the best conference in the country at the time instead of now where the Big Ten is one of the worst.

Just look at the teams here.

1)- Indiana......enough said.

2)- Minnesota. They are decent and will be around .500 for most seasons.

3)- Penn St. They aren't consistent. 1 great year....then 1 down year.

4)- Iowa. They are ok but won't be a regular top 25 team.

5)- Mich St. They are improving and could be a regular top 25 team.
They actually have a coach now.

6)- Northwestern. Good coach but they just won't get the talent.

7)- Wisconsin. Just not sure about Wisconsin's coach. They will be ok.

8)- Purdue. They will be decent in future years but I just don't see much
from them.

9)- Illinois. Well they will get some talent over the next few years but
probably won't compete in the big ten on a consistent basis.

10) Michigan. They are in a funk right now and aren't the Michigan
people are used to seeing. It will probably take a few years before Michigan becomes good again and that's just assuming it when RR gets the players he wants.

I'm sure fans, coaches, and players of OSU aren't scared of anybody at the moment in the Big Ten. OSU will probably only have 2-3 games each year in the Big Ten/OOC that they have to worry about.



2)- OSU recruits well and the other teams in the conference do poor compared to other teams around the country.

3)- OSU has a solid coaching staff and Tressel surrounds himself with good coaches.


He will be in the hunt for NCs. Only time will tell if he wins another one or not. I wouldn't be surprised if they play in another NC or two in the next 5 years.
 
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OregonBuckeye;1424143; said:
What is your definition of a dynasty?
I don't know if there is an exact definition, but it would be something like "multiple NC's during a relatively short period of time." Nebraska winning championships in 1994, 1995, and 1997 would be perhaps the best and most obvious example, and Urban Meyer has got a similar situation going down in Gainesville. Another recent example would be Miami (NC's in 1983, 1987, 1989, and 1991). Other examples from the more distant past would be Notre Dame (NC's in 1943, 1946, 1947, 1949, and 1953) ... Army (NC's in 1944, 1945, and 1946) ... Minnesota (NC's in 1934, 1935, 1936, 1940, and 1941). Tressel's run at Youngstown State was clearly a dynasty as well (NC's in 1991, 1993, 1994, and 1997). See also Paul Brown, Larry Kehres, and Chuck Kyle....
 
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Thanks to BB73 for answering that question. Looks like you win within 1-3 years of taking over a job and then your chances slide a lot.

How do you explain that? Once you're there a few years, your conference opponents learn your stuff and your advantage dissipates?

And what is the answer to longevity? It would be interesting to see when the assistant coaches moved under the coaches who won multiple years over a longer term. What is the basis for competitive advantage?
 
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LordJeffBuck;1413113; said:
Since national polling began back in 1934, [strike]seventeen[/strike] eighteen head coaches have won multiple national championships as recognized by the sports writers (AP) or college football coaches (UPI, BCS, etc.):

Bear Bryant (Alabama): 1961, 1964, 1965, 1973, 1978, 1979
Bernie Bierman (Minnesota): 1934, 1935, 1936, 1940, 1941
Frank Leahy (Notre Dame): 1943, 1946, 1947, 1949, 1953
John McKay (Southern Cal): 1962, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1978
Bud Wilkinson (Oklahoma): 1950, 1955, 1956
Woody Hayes (Ohio State): 1954, 1957, 1968
Darrell Royal (Texas): 1963, 1969, 1970
Barry Switzer (Oklahoma): 1974, 1975, 1985
Tom Osborne (Nebraska): 1994, 1995, 1997
Red Blaik (Army): 1944, 1945
Ara Parseghian (Notre Dame): 1966, 1973
Bob Devaney (Nebraska): 1970, 1971
Joe Paterno (Penn State): 1982, 1986
Dennis Erickson (Miami): 1989, 1991
Bobby Bowden (Florida State): 1993, 1999
Pete Carroll (Southern Cal): 2003, 2004
Urban Meyer (Florida): 2006, 2008
Nick Saban (LSU, Alabama): 2003, 2009

On thirteen occasions, the multiple NC coaches won back-to-back championships, and on another five occasions, they won NC's separated by only one year. On [strike]seventeen[/strike] eighteen occasions, the NC's were separated by more than one year. This means that half of the time, coaches who won multiple NC's did so with "dynasty" teams.

The largest period from first NC to last NC is Bear Bryant (19 years, from 1961-1979).

The average period from first NC and last NC is less than eight years [strike](7.82)[/strike] (7.78), which means that head coaches have a very small window in which to achieve greatness.

Only eight of the [strike]seventeen[/strike] eighteen coaches who have won multiple NC's have done so during a period of eight years or longer ... and three of those eight won all of their NC's within a period of exactly eight years. Only five head coaches have been able to win multiple NC's over the course of a decade or more - Bryant (19 years), McKay (17 years), Hayes (15 years), Switzer (12 years), and Leahy (11 years) - and each of those head coaches won at least three national titles.

The largest period between any two NC's by the same coach is Woody Hayes (11 years, from 1957-1968).

The average period between any two NC's by the same head coach is less than four years [strike](3.31)[/strike] (3.39).

Only four times has a head coach gone seven or more years between NC's - Woody Hayes (11 years, see above), Barry Switzer (10 years, from 1975 to 1985), Bear Bryant (8 years, from 1965 to 1973), and Ara Parseghian (7 years, from 1966 to 1973) ... while the other 31 periods between NC's was seven years or less, with 18 of those 31 periods being only one year (back-to-back) or two years.

The largest period between first NC and second NC is seven years for Ara Parseghian (1966-1973), while the average period between first NC and second NC is just over three years [strike](3.06)[/strike] (3.22).

The 2009 season will be the seventh since Jim Tressel won his lone national championship. So, if Jim Tressel is going to win another national championship at Ohio State, he is probably going to have to do it soon, because at this point, the historical trends are decidedly starting to turn against him - (1) no coach has ever won his second NC more than seven years after his first NC, with the average gap being three years; (2) only four coaches have gone seven or more years between any two NC's, with the average gap being under four years; and (3) only eight coaches have gone eight or more years between their first NC and their final NC, and the average window during which coaches win NC's is about eight years.

2009 could be an interesting season in Columbus....
Updated for Nick Saban's multiple NC's.

Saban fits squarely within the pattern - namely, winning his second NC within seven years of his first.

Tressel is now entering his eighth season since his first NC - if he wins a second NC, he will become the first coach to do so outside of the seven-year window.
 
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