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Game Thread Iowa at tOSU, Sat. Oct. 5, 3:30pm ET, CBS

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Ohio State Opens As a 24-Point Favorite Over Iowa Prior to Buckeyes' Primetime Win Over Michigan State

Ahead of just the second meeting between Ohio State and Iowa in the last seven years, the Buckeyes opened in the betting markets as 24-point favorites.
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Ohio State Opens As a 24-Point Favorite Over Iowa Prior to Buckeyes' Primetime Win Over Michigan State​

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Before any games in the Saturday slate could kick off yesterday, Ohio State already found itself as a 24-point favorite over the Iowa Hawkeyes a week ahead of the meeting between the teams.

Despite the Buckeyes ultimately finishing the day with a 38-7 primetime win over Michigan State on the road and Iowa sitting out on a scheduled bye, the line has already fallen by at least a field goal across multiple books. DraftKings — first to publish a spread — currently requires a 21-point cover from the Buckeyes, while FanDuel offers a narrowly shallower number of 20.5 points.

If those figures hold to close, the spread would serve as the smallest projected margin of victory in an Ohio State game thus far into the 2024 season. The Buckeyes closed as 23.5-point favorites over the Spartans yesterday after not witnessing any lines lower than 37.5 points in their favor across the team's first three games. Consequently, OSU at the moment owns a 2-2 record against the spread this year.

As for the total, oddsmakers offered an initial projection of 42.5 points between the teams that has yet to budge. After overs hit in all of Ohio State's 2024 nonconference games, the Buckeyes finally saw an under cash in one of their contests this season when the tally between themselves and MSU fell 3.5 points short of the line.

Iowa has also achieved a 2-2 record against the spread so far this year and most recently covered as three-point favorites over Minnesota in a 31-14 victory away from home. The Hawkeyes have somewhat shockingly seen overs take shape in all four of their games this season after earning a reputation for low-scoring slop-fests of late under the direction of head coach Kirk Ferentz. During the 2022-23 seasons, an under hit in 19 of Iowa's 25 regular season games, including a streak of eight in a row from October to December a year ago. This occurred despite the Hawkeyes facing projected totals set by bookies as low as 26 points in some extreme circumstances.
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247sports.com

Ohio State favored by over three touchdowns against visiting Iowa

Ohio State is favored by 21.5 points over visiting Iowa this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET; CBS). The No. 3 Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) are coming off of a 38-7 win at Michigan State Saturday night in which they covered the 23.5-point spread.
247sports.com 247sports.com

Ohio State favored by over three touchdowns against visiting Iowa​

Ohio State is favored by 21.5 points over visiting Iowa this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET; CBS). The No. 3 Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) are coming off of a 38-7 win at Michigan State where OSU covered the 23.5-point spread. The Hawkeyes (3-1, 1-0) were off this past weekend, but were impressive the previous week when they knocked off Minnesota 31-14.

And get this: In all four of Iowa's games this season, the over has covered. Yes, all four times the over for total points covered. The O/U for OSU-Iowa is 43.5 points. Is this the week that trend will change for the Hawkeyes? It's very possible.

Also, Ohio State has a win probability of 89.9 percent over Iowa, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.

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Ohio State vs. Iowa odds: Early point distribution released, How to Watch

Ohio State will look to continue competing in Big Ten play when the Buckeyes host Iowa in Week 6. The Buckeyes started the season 4-0 and won their first
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Ohio State vs. Iowa odds: Early point distribution released, How to Watch​

Ohio State will look to continue competing in Big Ten play when the Buckeyes host Iowa in Week 6. The Buckeyes started the season 4-0 and won their first conference game against them on Saturday Michigan State.

According to FanDuel, they enter the game as 17.5-point favorites over the Hawkeyes. Additionally, the over/under for the matchup is set at 42.5. For more information on the game and how to watch, see below.

Just sayin': Ohio State is anywhere from 17.5 to 21.5 favorite over Iowa.
 
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For my most recent post in the stats thread I compiled a simple, albeit enormous spreadsheet. That sheet revealed a thing or two about the upcoming opponent.

While Ohio State has significant variability in performance quarter-to-quarter (more than most teams but about the same as many Buckeye teams, maddeningly enough), Iowa is a mixed bag. Their running game performance on both sides of the ball is more consistent than Ohio State's (though not as good), but their throw game is absolutely Jekyll and Hyde.

Like the Buckeyes, the Iowa first quarter is worse than the second and third for their rushing offense. They are 61st in the nation in YPC in the first quarter (the Buckeyes are 97th), but rise moderately to 22nd in the second and 23rd in the third (the Buckeyes soar to 2nd and 9th respectively). What is vastly different is the 4th quarter. For the final stanza, the Hawkeyes have had to keep their starters in and lean on the worn down opponent in order to close out games while the Buckeyes have played backups for almost the entirety of every 4th quarter. The result is that Iowa has their best rushing performance in the fourth (10th in the nation in YPC), while the Buckeyes drop to their worst performance (66th).

Both teams are more consistent on rushing defense, but unlike the Buckeyes, the Hawkeyes are better in the first stanza than in the second. They start out 20th in the nation then drop to 53rd. For one reason or another they zoom up to 12th place in the third quarter and keep that momentum going for 9th place in the 4th. It does not bode well for the Hawkeyes that their worst quarter (the second) matches up with the best quarter for the Buckeye ground game (#1 in FBS).

The Hawkeyes also have their worst quarter on pass defense when the Buckeye passing attack is at its best (in the third), but the big story is just how inconsistent the Iowa pass defense has been this year. Iowa's FBS rank in pass efficiency by quarter:

1) 3
2) 103
3) 103
4) 43

Not a typo. They are third in the nation in the first quarter in defensive PE. Then drop to ONE HUNDRED and third for the second and third quarters. So while Iowa's overall rank in pass efficiency is middling (54th), they get there by being good in the first and downright awful thereafter. Now try to cover this SET (Smith, Egbuka & Tate) of receivers. Yikes.

This brings us to the passing offense. Ohio State fans are familiar with average or worse quarterbacks having the game of their lives against the Buckeyes. It happens all the time. But I would not worry about it on Saturday, and not just because Cade McNamara is woefully inconsistent.

But inconsistent he is. When he does get hot, it has only ever been in the third quarter. In that stanza he is 12th in the nation in PE. Iowa's PE is 125th in the first, 127th in the second, and 90th in the fourth. So one good to very good quarter and three quarters of absolutely terrible.

It's not just inconsistency. His performance is fragile. Against the tomato cans he's played (Illinois State and Troy) Cade has done very well. Against the other teams, he's had PE of 59.72 and 85.31. Granted, those two opponents are ranked first and second respectively in defensive PE in the nation (Iowa State and Minnesota), but does anyone really believe that either of those teams has a top ten passing defense? The best PE against Minnesota this year was posted by Alex Orji. Seriously. You think Ohio State's schedule has been bad up till now? Look at the Cyclones' and Gophers' slates (but only if you have a strong stomach).

So why do I say I wouldn't worry? We've seen bad quarterbacks turn into Joe Namath before. The reason is that the book is out on Cade McNamara. Pressure him and he folds like origami.

According to PFF, as reported by SI, "he has completed 54 of his 76 passes for 506 yards. However, when he's under pressure, he is just 10-for-26 for 82 yards, a touchdown, and an interception." So under pressure his PE is 69.954. And the world knows it. Jim Knowles knows it. Jack Sawyer knows it. Tyleik Williams, now fully rested and healthy, knows it.

I would say "good luck Iowa", because you'll need it, but I wouldn't mean it
 
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scarletngray said:
Johnson has had a great year so far. But I'll take two backs averaging over 8 ypc over one any day of the week and twice on Saturday.
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Thanks for your posts in each back’s thread on ypc. That led me to look up the B1G ranking…

And yeah… The Buckeye Duo have 78 carries between them. Iowa’s Solo back has 81 by himself. That’s not a huge load yet, but in a college football world where Ohio State has to have gas in the tank in game 16, ten carries a game per back is a better way to get there
 
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