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ChiSox Aren't Choking, they're getting beat
White Sox aren't choking, they're getting beat
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Ken Rosenthal / FOXSports.com
Posted: 2 hours ago
There's a difference between choking and getting beat.
The White Sox are getting beat.
No doubt, the Sox will go down as chokers if they fail to win the AL Central after holding a 15-game lead on Aug. 1. People seek easy labels, and the Sox — losers of eight of their last 11 — are mounting a feeble argument in their own defense.
Still, the stunning turnaround in the Central is more about the Indians than it is about the White Sox, who peaked at 62-29 on July 18, but were never as good as their record indicated.
Since Aug. 1, the White Sox are 22-24, hardly impressive but hardly embarrassing. Under most circumstances, their lull would be dismissed as the kind of correction that inevitably takes place over the course of a 162-game season.
The Indians, meanwhile, are 33-11 over the same stretch, a rally comparable to the Astros' 36-10 sprint to the end of last season. This, too, qualifies as a correction — the Indians were 25-29 on June 4, playing far below expectations.
If Cleveland keeps this up, it likely will wind up not only with the best record in the Central, but the best in the American League. The Sox, meanwhile, still could make the postseason as a wild card — their lead over the Yankees, who are second to the Indians in the wild-card standings, is four games.
Yet, even if the Sox missed the postseason entirely, their collapse would be similar to three other renowned "choke jobs" in baseball history — "choke jobs" that fell more into the category of, "Man, we just got beat."
* The 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers blew a 13 1/2-game lead on Aug. 11 when the New York Giants went 38-8 down the stretch, forcing a one-game playoff that the Giants won on Bobby Thomson's home run. Those "choking" Dodgers went 27-24 over the same period — and finished with 97 wins.
* The 1978 Red Sox blew a 14-game lead on July 17 when the Yankees went 51-21, forcing a one-game playoff that the Yankees won on Bucky Dent's home run. Those "choking" Red Sox went 37-35 over the same period — and finished with 99 wins.
* The 1969 Cubs blew a 12-game lead on Aug. 13 when the Mets went 38-11 to finish the season with 100 wins. The Cubs hardly distinguished themselves during the Mets' rally, sputtering to an 18-27 finish. But they still won 92 games.
If you want a true "choke job," consider the 1995 Angels, who had a 12 1/2-game lead on Aug. 20 and wound up losing a one-game playoff to the Mariners. The Angels ended the regular season 12-25, twice enduring nine-game losing streaks. The Mariners went 25-13 over the same span.
Which brings us back to the White Sox and Indians — and the increasingly apparent notion that the Indians are the stronger team.
Paul Konerko can't seem to believe his team is in danger of blowing the AL Central. (Brian Kersey / Associated Press)
By one measure, the Indians should be leading the division by 9 1/2 games instead of trailing by 2 1/2. Baseball Prospectus, using a formula based on run differential and adjusted for strength of schedule, calculates that the White Sox should be 78-71 instead of 90-59 while assigning the Indians their same 88-62 record.
The Indians rank first in the league in ERA; the Sox are fourth. The Indians rank fourth in runs; the Sox are tied for eighth. The Sox hold a slight edge in defensive efficiency, a statistic that measures the percentage of balls in play that are converted into outs. But overall, the Sox and Indians rank 2-3 in the majors behind the A's.
This is a correction, all right, and perhaps the only surprise is that the White Sox held firm for so long. Chances are, they'll still win the division — they've got favorable pitching matchups the next two nights, with Mark Buehrle facing Jake Westbrook and Jon Garland facing Scott Elarton. But if the Sox fail, fans should refrain from name-calling.
The Sox aren't choking. They're simply getting beat.
Ken Rosenthal is the new senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com.
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