Well, I'll offer another Tech perspective here. First of all, it's the defense and running game which have made this offense better than any we've had. Our RBs, Batch and Woods, are WAY underrated, as is our DL. The RBs have been so explosive that it prevents teams from dropping eight. The DL has generated enough consistent pressure to allow the secodary to play more aggressively and force more turnovers, giving the O even more possessions.
There is no real formula for stopping Leach's O that just any team can run. Honestly, there have been only two teams in the past five years or so who have truly "shut down" the offense. 2005 Alabama in the Cotton Bowl and 2006 TCU. Both this units were extremely athletic, fast, and talented. They both finished in the top 3 in both scoring defense and total defense in their respective years. So you generally have to have a pretty damn good D to start out with.
Alabama employed the "jam the WRs" strategy to perfection. I maintain that the officiating went too easy on the pass interference calls all day that game, but then again, there's a fine line between great pass D and PI, and credit goes to Bama for walking it successfully. We tried throwing too many fade patterns that day, and the Bama DBs nudged the WRs throughout the routes to where they never even got close to where the ball was being thrown. It was effective, and they held us to 10 points.
TCU went with the "hit them hard" strategy, and did it as well as anyone I've seen. They ran a 3-2-6, and managed to get pressure with a pair of good D-linemen in Chase Ortiz and Tommy Blake. And as is Gary Patterson's philosophy, he had a bunch of speedy DBs absolutely flying to the ball. They lit up a few of our guys, and there were some subsequent drops because of it. There were other factors, too, like how when any Big 12 team plays TCU, it's their superbowl b/c they have a chip on their shoulder for getting left out of the Big 12. It was one of Harrell's first few games, and we had our best WR out for that game. Still, their D clearly outplayed us that game, and held us to a mere FG.
More curious than those two games (after all, those were elite Ds) have been the struggles against Colorado and Missouri in 2006 and 2007. There may be something to their strategy, because they won by forcing turnovers. In fact, of Harrell's 30 career INTs, 13 have come from those two teams in those four games. Examining what they did reveals aggressive play which rattled Harrell. Graham's early years were marred by an overreliance on the right side of the field, and MU/CU figured it out.
MU got their hands up and batted a bunch of passes in these games. Part of the reason for our wide o-line splits is to create passing lanes, and MU got their hands up and made things tough. They also had a pair of great DBs in Cornelius Brown and William Moore. CU similarly had Terrence Wheatley, who I thought was maybe the best defender in football last year. He held Crabtree in check in 07, which tells you how good he was. Colorado's strategy was more about jumping routes. It was a pick 6 by Jordan Dizon, another good defender, that won the 07 game. The 2006 game was a game where we had both of our two best WRs out of the game, so I don't know what's to be taken from that.
After further analysis, the formula, I guess, is to have a couple of extremely talented defenders who can fly to the ball without giving up too many big plays, along with a DL who can still generate pressure/deflect passes. It also helps if some of our starting WRs don't play. Other than that, it's been pretty damn tough to even slow us down, which has contributed in large part to the proliferation of the spread within the Big 12 and beyond.
I've never much bought into the "control the clock to keep Tech's O off the field" idea, but Nebraska almost pulled it off against us this year. I must stress that they executed it perfectly until the INT in OT, though, and I don't believe that's very imitable. Such a strategy requires NO turnovers and methodical scoring drives. Not to mention that you have to have the patience to not lean on the pass if/when you fall behind. NU only punted once against us, which is pretty much what you have to do, since we generally make the most of our possessions. Our O pretty much makes the time of possession stat obsolete, because we got more than doubled up in that department for this game and still won.
That said, I'm not sure if there is a gameplan to shut this 2008 Red Raider offense down. The backs are dangerous enough to keep defenses honest, Harrell seems to have overcome his flaws, and no one has had an answer for Crabtree and the rest of the deep receiving corps. And there hasn't been a game yet this year when our OL has been outplayed by the opposing DL. Strangely enough, I think that in terms of schematics/philosophy/personnel, the best defense to throw at Tech would be one along the lines of the one Ruffin McNeill has us running on D: a strong, aggressive DL with opportunistic DBs behind them making plays. After all, the D did win the Spring Game... The point is, you have to have a lot of things going well all at once to play really good defense against us. We have the talent now to create mismatches against pretty much anyone.
To correct a fallacy in this thread, the Big 12 isn't full of terrible defenses. It has average Ds matched up against talented, experienced QBs running offensive schemes which no one has really figured out how to consistently defend yet. And that's partly Leach's doing. The spread O is way ahead of the game if executed well, and the rest of the Big 12 took notice of our success and started opening up their schemes and putting more athletes on O. It's a trend that is spreading. (pardon the pun)
OU will be a tough matchup for sure. Thankfully, their D hasn't looked the same since losing Reynolds. Hs replacement, Austin Box, is very talented, but just isn't seasoned enough yet. If English/Davis also can't go, I'm liking our chances. Their secondary got lit up by KU, a team we just destroyed. I'm not too concerned with us being able to score on them. However, they could just as easily light our D up. They have the most talented O across the board that we will have played, and they've been coming out of the gate on fire this year. Seriously, look at some of their 1st quarters. Scary stuff. I'd put the chances of a Tech win at 55/45 right now, only because we've been unstoppable lately.
Winning in Norman when they've got revenge on their minds for 07 and every reason to bring their A-game will be no easy task. That said, the "60-2 in Norman" stat that Sooners keep chest-thumping is misleading because they get UT in the Cotton Bowl every year. If you take UT games away from our recent stats, it's pretty comparable. Not to mention that I hate pretending like the distant past impacts future games anyway. I wouldn't touch this game as a betting man, though. Maybe the over, depending on what it is.
If we win in Norman, then we better damn well be in the NC game. Of course, we've still got that whole conference championship game thing to worry about, too. (I won't launch into a diatribe about that, though, out of respect.) This, of course, assumes that we don't blow it against an upstart Baylor team, which would probably cause me to commit suicide. Anyway, I digress, and thanks for the mostly kind words. Hope my rant helped.
