Things have been jumping around here. I'll first say that my prior post was meant to get you thinking that Ginn might not be the end all be all with regard to punt returning. I do think he is top 10, and maybe top 5. I think Ross is top 5 going into the season. In any case big punt and kick returns tend to come at somewhat random and unpredictable times, and there is no reason to expect that either team will have a big TD return in this game.
I'm also a big beleiver in that you compare the units that face each other not the ones who don't so it goes.
Texas OL Vs tOSU DL - Advantage Texas. I don't expect a huge push run blocking but I do expect the OL will neutralize the front four's pass rush. The tOSU front has always been a stand em up and let the LBs take care of things group, and I don't expect that to change. They are not a threat by scheme even if they were more experienced.
Texas RBs Vs tOSU LBs - advantage Texas mostly due to speed and quickness, but also power in the form of Melton. As fast as your LBs are, they are not elite sprinters.
Texas TEs Vs tOSU LBs - Tweedie has a big advantage as a blocker, while Finley does as a receiver. Tweedie as a receiver is even, while Finley as a blocker has to be considered a liability going in. Finley against your safeties is also a big mismatch. Overall advantage Texas as a expect 5 or 6 TD receptions and at least 1 TD from them.
Texas WRs Vs tOSU DBs - Advantage Texas. Sweed is a physical mismatch, Quan is both a physical and speed mismatch, Pittman has shown that he is dangerous against tOSU. Shipley is a technician that is tough to cover. Then there is Ramonce. This group is serious trouble for a young secondary, especially 1 on 1.
Texas QB Vs tOSU Defense - ? I honestly don't know what to expect, but given the above it is really a matter of the Texas QBs minimizing mistakes, rather than making plays. I feel pretty good about their ability to do that.
tOSU OL Vs Texas DL - Advantage Texas, Texas will have one of if not the best DL in the country, tOSUs O-line will not be that good.
tOSU RBs Vs Texas LBs - Advantage tOSU (LBs only), Even with more experience and young talent, I am not yet sold on our LBs. Now if I consider the entire 11 I think it is Advantage Texas. tOSU will not be able to run inside, and will have limited success outside due to the pursuit of our safeties.
tOSU WRs Vs Texas DBs - Advantage Texas, Texas brings back nearly identical experience as last year, and will do at least as good a job shutting down tOSUs receivers as they did last year.
tOSU TEs Vs Texas LBs - Advantage Texas primarily because Tressel tends to only bothers to throw to the TE a couple times a game, taking them out of the
equation.
Special Teams - Advantage Texas, Texas' special teams were great last year and will be so again this year, and they will be better than tOSU in nearly every category again.
For something completely different, I think it really comes down to turnovers. tOSU could not win at home with a +2 turnover margin last year. tOSU will need to be +3 to be in this game. That will be an interesting challenge, but our freshman QBs could give the game away.
