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Game Thread Game Two: #1 Ohio State 24, #2 Texas 7 (9/9/06)

xrayrandy said:
The odds of going undefeated two years in a row are irrelevant.

The odds right now of Texas going undefeated two years in a row is identical to going undefeated one year.

Having heads one time you flip the coin does not influence what happens next time.
xrr2ys8.jpg
 
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cincibuck made a comment a few posts back on how the Texas defense contained us and USC "enough to win". This got me to re-thinking how relatively well we played on offense (Hamby catches the pass and we score 29 points) despite playing musical QBs...and keep in mind that Zwick only had started the two previous games (Alamo Bowl and Miami, Oh) since the middle of the 2004 season, and Smith hadn't had any real work since the 2004 Michigan game. Also, USC had 574 yards of offense and 38 points on Texas (they scored TDs on the first four possessions of the second half). With our offense returning fairly intact, it should be in much better form in game two than it was last year. I can see us cracking 30 points, and if so, Texas is toast. No slam to UT fans, but no way the Longhorns score 30+ points themselves with two totally inexperienced QBs, regardless of surrounding talent.
 
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The odds of going undefeated two years in a row are irrelevant.

The odds right now of Texas going undefeated two years in a row is identical to going undefeated one year.

Having heads one time you flip the coin does not influence what happens next time.

Uh, well, I guess your avatar is half right.

The probability of winning one game is 50% holding that both sides are equally capable of winning. That's a big if. Even if Texas and its opponents had an equal chance of winning every game, the probability of winning two independent events would be the probability of game A times the probability of game B.

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)

The probability of winning three games would be

P(A and B and C) = P(A) · P(B) · P(C)

Consequently, X-Ray, the probability of winning multiple games decreases with each game (i.e., 50%, 25%, 12.5%, etc.).

I have been wondering for some time, how many x-rays have you had?
 
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They may have more scoreboard sponsers than we do!!!

Texas-sized viewing

Longhorns' new Jumbotron is world's largest HD TV

Posted: Saturday August 26, 2006 8:42PM; Updated: Sunday August 27, 2006 10:15AM

Texas.jpg

Texas' new scoreboard is 55 feet tall and 134 feet wide and cost $8 million.


AUSTIN (AP) -- Its nickname is Godzillatron.
Frankly, no other word would do justice to the monstrous new football stadium scoreboard at Texas.
Towering over the south end zone at 55 feet tall and 134 feet wide, it is more than just a Texas-sized upgrade of the scoreboard at Royal-Memorial Stadium, home of the defending national champions.
It is nearly as wide as the field itself and will be, for a short time at least, the largest high-definition video display board in the world, school officials say.
And Texas players can't wait to watch super-sized replays of their touchdowns.
"Oh man, that thing's big," said wide receiver Quan Cosby. "At night, we don't need the lights, it's so bright."
Built by South Dakota-based Daktronics Inc., the $8 million scoreboard and accompanying sound system easily dwarf the old unit. It is the most visible change so far in a $150 million stadium renovation that will add about 10,000 seats in the north end zone, bringing capacity to just over 90,000 by 2008.
The last time Texas fans got to watch the old scoreboard, it was showing highlights of the 2005 national championship season. The new one will debut Sept. 2 when No. 3 Texas plays North Texas.
"The last board outlived its life," said UT athletics spokesman Nick Voinis. "Now look what we've got."
The board is so large it took some major adjustments just to get it in place.
For starters, the university had to upgrade its utilities capacity to supply the board with enough juice. Keeping it cool in the Texas heat was another issue.
Whether it's a typical 100-degree Texas afternoon or the heat generated by the board itself, both will damage the board over time. UT officials had to install 40 5-ton air conditioning units.
And for sheer size surprise, the support columns are as large as redwood tree trunks. The heads of the grounding bolts measure about 5 inches across.
"When they first starting building it, I thought it was going to be half the size that it is," said defensive end Tim Crowder. "When they kept adding more and more, I was like `How big is this thing going to be?."'
When workers first started testing the lights and sound system, it created a buzz among the video game generation.
"The guys are talking about trying to hook up an Xbox to play games," Crowder said.
Daktronics spokesman Mark Steinkamp said the Texas scoreboard is the highest resolution screen the company has ever installed. The Godzillatron nickname appears to have originated on Texas fan Internet sites, and Steinkamp said he likes it.
"Maybe we should try to trademark it," he said.
Inspiration for Godzillatron came from a visit to old rival Arkansas in 2004. The Razorbacks had installed a 30-by-107 video board at their stadium, and Texas officials were impressed.
Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds strives to keep the Longhorns at the top of the heap when it comes to facilities -- "We are the Joneses" he likes to say -- and said he's pleased with the latest addition.
"When we got into it, I said 'Let's put one up that will make people in the new north end feel like they're sitting in their living room watching TV,"' Dodds said. "That's about how it will be."
For now, the video board is the largest in the world. UT officials say they're told that within a few months, a slightly larger one in Asia will own that designation.
Even so, in a state where size definitely matters, the Longhorn board will be bigger than a new one going up at Kyle Field at rival Texas A&M. That board measures 53 feet by 73 feet, said Alan Cannon, A&M's associate athletic director for media relations.
Cannon said he's ready for inevitable size comparisons between rivals. The Aggies play Texas in Austin on Nov. 24, when they'll get to see themselves on the big screen.
"Content is all that matters," Cannon said.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/football/ncaa/08/26/texas.godzillatron.ap/index.html
 
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Uh, well, I guess your avatar is half right.

The probability of winning one game is 50% holding that both sides are equally capable of winning. That's a big if. Even if Texas and its opponents had an equal chance of winning every game, the probability of winning two independent events would be the probability of game A times the probability of game B.

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)

The probability of winning three games would be

P(A and B and C) = P(A) · P(B) · P(C)

Consequently, X-Ray, the probability of winning multiple games decreases with each game (i.e., 50%, 25%, 12.5%, etc.).

I have been wondering for some time, how many x-rays have you had?

Maybe I should have posted it this way: It's not like Randy's a fan of Indiana, or Baylor, or Vanderbilt. In fact, it's not like he's a fan of Iowa, Oregon, or Virginia Tech. There's almost always a reasonable expectation that a program such as Texas, or Ohio State, or Alabama, Michigan, USC, Notre Dame, will go undefeated. So now, for all but one or two games a year, you have a weighted set of dice and stats, real or unreal, mean squat. Throw in conference strength... right now, my take on the Big Twelve is that the conference is down and Oklahoma loosing their starting QB doesn't add to league strength... meaning that the chance of rolling "undefeated" in the conference is higher... weighted even more... in Texas favor. So if they get by Ohio State, where the dice aren't loaded, the chances of running the table are greatly increased.

Randy's unvarnished optomism is no different than folks like me feeling sure that Ted Ginn was going get six or seven run back TDs last year. Reality has nothing to do with it. He's just a fan with a belly button and an opinion.
 
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Uh, well, I guess your avatar is half right.

The probability of winning one game is 50% holding that both sides are equally capable of winning. That's a big if. Even if Texas and its opponents had an equal chance of winning every game, the probability of winning two independent events would be the probability of game A times the probability of game B.

P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)

The probability of winning three games would be

P(A and B and C) = P(A) · P(B) · P(C)

Consequently, X-Ray, the probability of winning multiple games decreases with each game (i.e., 50%, 25%, 12.5%, etc.).

I have been wondering for some time, how many x-rays have you had?

Your numbers and calculations are correct. However, you're saying that Texas and North Texas are equal. Texas and Ohio State are equal. Texas and whoever's next on their schedule are equal. Of course, that's just not true.

But you're right that it is extremely difficult to go an entire season unbeaten. Let's make up a team and a schedule. Let's make the team called "Zurp Crushin' Your Brains," and the schedule and the chances that Zurp is going to win looks like this:

1 - Clown College Clowns 98%
2 - Big Momma University Beatles 98%
3 - Your Sister is a Slut 98%
4 - Yertle Wombats 85%
5 - Pantsless Joe Henderson State Tech 95%
6 - Sasquatch University Great Horny Toads 98%
7 - Local Watch Repair Union No. 506 90%
8 - University of Sucksylvania Condoms 98%
9 - University of Toilet Bowls 98%
10 - Shady Acres Retirement Village 75%
11 - I -heart- Boobs 85%
12 - Beavis and Butt-Head Technical College for Mental Giants 95%

The odds to win ALL of these games is all of those numbers multiplied. 39%. None of those teams had a great chance to win, but the odds that Zurp is going to go through that schedule undefeated is pretty low.
 
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