Ohio State vs. Penn State
By Tony Gerdeman
So many trends, so little time. Let's take a quick look at some of the numbers that won't have any bearing on this week's game:
This will be the twenty-first meeting between Ohio State and Penn State, with each team having ten wins in the series.
The home team has won ten of twelve in this series since 1993.
Of the eight night games ever played in Happy Valley, Penn State has won only four.
This is the first ever night game between the two schools, so there is no trend there.
Penn State's seven consecutive wins gives them the third longest active winning streak in Division I-A behind USC (26) and Texas (11). I'm assuming Ohio State's active winning streak of two games ranks them in a tie for eighth with probably thirty-seven other teams.
For his career, head coach Jim Tressel is 10-6 on the road in the Big Ten. If we don't count Indiana as a Big Ten team, he's 8-6. Also, continuing on the "not-counting Indiana" kick, the only time the Buckeyes have won their conference road opener under Jim Tressel was 2002 at Northwestern. In 2001, they won at Indiana, but lost their real opener at Penn State. In 2003, they lost at Wisconsin. In 2004, they lost at Northwestern.
Seems kind of bleak, no?
Not to fear, the higher-ranked team has won this game fourteen straight times. The last time the higher-ranked team did not win this game was 1964-two years before Joe Paterno's first game as head coach.
When Penn State Has The Ball
Expect very similar formations to what the Buckeyes run on offense, but with some different aspects of attack.
The key to the Penn State offense is quarterback Michael Robinson. There are times when he is about as accurate as a forty-year old Farmer's Almanac, and then there are times when he does whatever is needed to keep the ball moving.
A lot of what Penn State runs, the Buckeyes have already seen from the likes of Texas. The biggest difference in schemes from the two offenses, however, is that Penn State uses their wide receivers the vast majority of the time.
Robinson's job is to get the ball to the receivers quickly and let them create. It's a similar line of thinking when Robinson throws deep, because he allows his receivers to make the play on the ball while it is in the air.
As far as Michael Robinson's mid-range game is concerned, the concern is actually Penn State's. There are times when he makes throws that you will be unable to determine who the intended receiver was. There were instances in the Minnesota game when he would throw the ball and there would be no discernable receiver even available-which is why he didn't throw any interceptions last week, even though he was 13-32 passing.
Against Minnesota, freshman receiver Derrick Williams lined up everywhere on offense except for the line and fullback. He was out wide, he was in the slot, he dotted the I, and he was at quarterback. Penn State uses Williams like everybody thought Ohio State would use Ted Ginn Jr.
There are three keys to stopping Williams. The first is to not let him get matched up with a linebacker. The second is to tackle him when he catches the ball in the zone. The third is to keep pounding on him. If he gets a carry out of the backfield, don't let him run out of bounds. Force him back inside and get eight or nine guys piling on top of him. By the fourth quarter, maybe he'll be a little less aggressive.
Williams gets most of the pub, but redshirt freshman Deon Butler is getting the majority of the touchdown catches. He has a touchdown catch in three consecutive games. Justin King is the other freshman playmaker to be concerned with. He will play receiver but probably get more carries than catches. He'll also play cornerback quite a bit.
When Nate Salley is not supporting the run, he must stay back on defense, because Penn State will go deep at least five or six times per game. The Nittany Lions feel that they will either get a fifteen-yard pass interference call, a big completion, or an incompletion.
The cornerbacks for Ohio State can't get lulled into complacency against these receivers. There will be times when Robinson will break containment and be running for his life. He'll be looking deep, and it will be up to the defensive backs to stay with their assignments and let the linebackers get to Robinson.
The Ohio State defense has to hit Michael Robinson every time he holds the ball for more than four seconds-be it a pass or a run. Bobby Carpenter and Mike Kudla need to come off the edge and dislocate the ball from Robinson's grasp, or at least make him a little nervous back there. If they force Robinson to throw before he's ready, his lackluster completion percentage will lack what little luster it had ever mustered.
Penn State has a senior-laden offensive line, which affords them the luxury of running out of various formations in various situations. They can (and will) run quarterback draws and options out of every single formation they show.
We've talked about all of this running that Penn State will do, and we haven't even mentioned their running back, Tony Hunt. Hunt's big (6'2" 224 lbs) with nice moves and good power. He's especially tough when he has some momentum and he doesn't really lose speed when making a move.
The Buckeye defense matches up almost perfectly with this offense, however. The defensive line is an occupying force, the linebackers have the speed to stay with everything in front of them, and the defensive backs have the physicality to make the freshmen receivers think twice about reaching for that next errant pass.
One last thing, A.J. Hawk needs seven tackles to move in to Ohio State's Top 10 in career tackles. He'll have that in the third quarter.
As far as the kicking game goes for the Lions, they are starting a true freshman place-kicker in Kevin Kelly. He is 8-10 on field goal attempts and 21-22 on PATs. His long for the year is 47 yards.
Returning kickoffs for Penn State will be Williams and King. It is only a matter of time before one of them scores via the kickoff. It remains to be seen, however, if either will even get a chance at a return with Josh Huston kicking into the end zone nearly every time.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
Buckeye quarterback Troy Smith seems to be settling into this offense like it's a sectional sofa and he's the only one in the basement. The improvements that he made from the Texas game to the San Diego State game, and from the San Diego State game to the Iowa game has to make you wonder what he has in store this week.
In the two games that Troy Smith has started, he is averaging 170 yards passing and 107 yards rushing. If he can get another 100 yards rushing this week, that could be enough to secure the victory-unless, of course, he mixes in another four fumble game.
Two weeks ago, Ohio State came out in the I formation and started running on Iowa from the outset. Don't be surprised to see them try the same thing against Penn State. And why not, their confidence in the offensive line probably hasn't been this high since 2002. The Buckeyes will want to see right away what they're up against. Plus, it will be a prime opportunity to finally unleash a long play-action pass.
If the offensive line can give Troy Smith the time to pick and choose like they did against Iowa, Penn State could be in for a long day. Fortunately for Penn State, they are not Iowa. They have a quick and experienced defensive line that shut down Minnesota and Laurence Maroney. In fact, Minnesota only managed 53 yards rushing in the first three quarters of the game last Saturday.
Their defense will be keyed on Troy Smith's running and they need to hit him every chance they get, because each time Smith carries it, he's picking up six or seven yards. Penn State can't win if Ohio State is facing second and three all night.
When Smith gets the ball to his receivers, the key defender to watch will be senior cornerback Alan Zemaitis. He's arguably the best corner in the conference. He's a big defender (6'2" 196 lbs) with enough speed to stay with most receivers.
Look for Tony Gonzalez and Santonio Holmes to pull the switcheroo and perhaps free some things up for Ted Ginn in this game. New things have been added on offense this week, and if you're going to add new things, why not add them for Teddy Ginn. For example, letting Ginn get a couple of snaps at quarterback will take some of the carries off of Troy Smith's legs and shoulders and keep him fresher towards the end of the game.
Don't be surprised if you see some misdirections and end arounds, as these types of plays have been effective against Penn State this year.
Everybody is talking about how Penn State shut down the #1 rushing team in the country in Minnesota last week. What they're not talking about is that this same Penn State defense gave up 198 yards rushing to Northwestern. Ohio State's offense resembles Northwestern's offense much more than it does Minnesota's.
Antonio Pittman may not reach 100 yards rushing, but he sure will get the opportunity. He is coming into this game expecting 30 carries. If he gets 30 carries, Ohio State will win. (Though the same could be said for Tony Hunt as well.)
Penn State has fast, smart and experienced linebackers. Their leading tackler is Paul Posluszny, and look for him to be involved in about 18 tackles Saturday night. He's exactly what you would expect from a Penn State linebacker-except he doesn't violate punters.
The Buckeyes are going to have opportunities to make plays on special teams. Penn State's kicker, Kevin Kelly, doesn't reach the end zone on kickoffs with any regularity. Holmes and Ginn are going to get some chances, and with the success that Minnesota had, Joe Paterno has to be concerned. In fact, don't be surprised if you see more pooch kicks from Penn State than deep kicks.
Buckeye place-kicker Josh Huston looks like he may be on his way to getting invited to the Lou Groza Award banquet, and another stellar game from him Saturday wouldn't hurt his shot at the free trip.
How It'll End Up
The Ohio State defense won't really allow Penn State to run the ball. It will be up to Michael Robinson to make accurate throws to his receivers. If he does, or doesn't, the Buckeye defenders can't keep drives alive with penalties. The young receivers may be fun to muscle around, but don't do it when the ball is in the air.
Troy Smith will knock back another 85 yards or so and Antonio Pittman will continue to establish himself as one of the best backs in the conference.
Jim Tressel's style will keep this game close, so it will be up to Ohio State to kill any momentum that Penn State gets from their big plays.
Earlier in the week, it was looking like the game would come down to the last play. But with the confidence the Buckeyes are showing this week, they must know something.
Ohio State 27 - Penn State 16
e right now!
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