From a UW fan...Kick the @#$# out of Florida!

[jwinslow]

I mean most of you think that OSU is going to score 30+ points on the Gators. No one has scored that much on us all year. I doubt there will be 30 points total in the game.

If one-dimensional Arkie can score 28 (despite 4 turnovers), I don't think it's unreasonable to hope OSU can eclipse 30.

 

[planetgator]

If one-dimensional Arkie can score 28 (despite 4 turnovers), I don't think it's unreasonable to hope OSU can eclipse 30.

LSU, the team that a lot of people are calling the real "best team in the SEC" only scored 10. No offense this year has scored more than 2 TDs on us until Arky, and they only scored 3, and the last one was after the game was decided. We aren't Northern Illinois, or Cincinnati. There is no doubt that your offense will score, but we have one of the best defenses in the country. Of the three games you guys played this year only Michigan gave up more than 28 points, and USC showed the world what they are really about.

 

[jwinslow]

LSU, the team that a lot of people are calling the real "best team in the SEC" only scored 10.

LSU has incredible athletes that are very inconsistent in their execution. They only put up 3 against auburn. On D, they somehow made Darius Walker look like a legitimate RB.

No offense this year has scored more than 2 TDs on us until Arky, and they only scored 3, and the last one was after the game was decided.

Fair enough... I wouldn't guarantee that OSU will score 30, but it certainly seems reasonable.

We aren't Northern Illinois, or Cincinnati.

Um okay... is someone expecting you to be?

There is no doubt that your offense will score, but we have one of the best defenses in the country. Of the three games you guys played this year only Michigan gave up more than 28 points, and USC showed the world what they are really about.

That game showed an enormous disparity in coaching as much as anything... stubborn uncreative playcalling on both sides with zero adjustments. Did Wisconsin show what Arkie was all about, or was that partially due to matchups & coaching?

UM had a strong front 7, but lacked depth at corner, so OSU spread them out. With UF's lack of depth at corner (but better safety play), might that formula work?

 

[Brutus1]

I don't care if we only score 3 points, as long as Florida only scores
2.

 

[schwab]

These forums have their share of Ohio State homers. I mean most of you think that OSU is going to score 30+ points on the Gators.

Just pointing out what I heard from Colin Cowherd today, definitely not a tOSU homer. He said he has the Buckeyes pegged for at least 30, and if we had the ball 12 times we would score at least 7 times. I have no idea how many either team will score. Otherwise, I'd head to Vegas.

 

[WoodyWorshiper]

planetgator, Of Course we have our share of Ohio State homers, the place is called "Buckeyeplanet" for Christ's sake.

 

[Bernini]

Seemingly Eating Continuously
Seldom Earns Championships

I second the original post as a fellow Badger fan. Whoop Florida's little asses. I have no doubts OSU will. Show them what Big Ten football is all about.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

No offense this year has scored more than 2 TDs on us until Arky

That's because there is "no offense" in the SEC. Next point....

 

[Saw31]

Every team has its share of idiot fans, and it always seems to be the team your team is playing next. These forums have their share of Ohio State homers. I mean most of you think that OSU is going to score 30+ points on the Gators. No one has scored that much on us all year. I doubt there will be 30 points total in the game.

GO GATORS!

The only thing that's slowed this offense this year is wind and rain...If the Buckeyes don't get to at least 28 points I will be surprised. We've had multiple games where 5 or 6 different people score TD's. I've followed this game for a long time and I have to say I've never seen such balance on an offense. Usually you'll have 1 or 2 players dominate a game, but this Buckeye team spreads it around. That's what makes comparing stats position by position rather meaningless in this game. When your 4th receiver is getting 4 catches for 60 yards and a TD, while everyone else is getting their touches as well, it becomes very difficult to slow down an offense. This doesn't mean it can't happen. If Florida can sack Troy Smith, then you've taken away 4 receivers on that play as well. But they have to be sacks. "Pressure" and "hurries" have not been enough against Troy Smith. You have to get him on the ground. That is the first thing Florida has to do to slow down this offense.

The second thing that Florida has to do well is get off the field on 3rd down when they have the opportunities. I've heard many of the media talking heads talk about "stopping tOSU's big plays". That's fine, and I think you're always trying to do that, but this team doesn't live and die on "big plays". They certainly can hit you with them, but they are plenty capable of long, sustained drives as well. Waiting for tOSU to make mistakes hasn't worked for anyone this year. How well Florida plays on 3rd down will determine the outcome of this game IMO.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Every team has its share of idiot fans, and it always seems to be the team your team is playing next. These forums have their share of Ohio State homers. I mean most of you think that OSU is going to score 30+ points on the Gators. No one has scored that much on us all year. I doubt there will be 30 points total in the game.

GO GATORS!

No one scored shit on Michigan until we lit them up for 42 points either, despite turning the ball over three times in our own territory. You gave up 21 offensive points to Arkansas (they averaged exactly 30 ppg all season), and 20 offensive points to a shitty Tennessee team (who averaged 29.33 ppg). Neither of those teams have the QB and WRs we do. And this is a bowl game, where Tressel loosens the lease on the offense...we've scored 35, 33, and 34 points in the last three years in bowl games. And in those games, we've averaged 453 yards of offense...keep in mind that in our 2004 bowl game Smith didn't play and Zwick (our backup) was hurt to the degree that we had to play Ginn at QB for some snaps.

 

[planetgator]

we've scored 35, 33, and 34 points in the last three years in bowl games. And in those games, we've averaged 453 yards of offense.

None of those where against SEC teams.

When is the last time that Ohio State beat an SEC team in a bowl game?

0-7 is what I've heard.

I just want you guys to know that I'm scared shitless of what your team is capable of doing to my beloved Gators. This year OSU team is the best we've faced in a long time. I'm just hopeful that it will be a good game and not a blow out. The thing that scares me the most is that these are all Tressel's players and Meyer is working with a lot of Zook's guys. To me that is a huge difference.

The thing about 30+ that rubs me wrong is it's like a slap in the face to a Gator. We don't give up that many points very often, and never this year.

Thanx for not running me off, I think debates are what make message boards fun and I've grown tired of reading all the Gator boards.

GO GATORS!

 

[23Skidoo]

None of those where against SEC teams.

When is the last time that Ohio State beat an SEC team in a bowl game?

0-7 is what I've heard.

I just want you guys to know that I'm scared shitless of what your team is capable of doing to my beloved Gators. This year OSU team is the best we've faced in a long time. I'm just hopeful that it will be a good game and not a blow out. The thing that scares me the most is that these are all Tressel's players and Meyer is working with a lot of Zook's guys. To me that is a huge difference.

The thing about 30+ that rubs me wrong is it's like a slap in the face to a Gator. We don't give up that many points very often, and never this year.

Thanx for not running me off, I think debates are what make message boards fun and I've grown tired of reading all the Gator boards.

GO GATORS!

This is probably the best offense in the country. And I'm quite confident I can say that without being a homer. It will be a huge disappointment and indication of no focus if they don't score at least 31 points.
Michigan's defense is among the best in the country.

If there was a vBet on Ohio State scoring 30+ I'd be all in... the only question I have, is if Florida and Leak can keep pace. That's been the question for everybody we've faced all year.

And I wouldn't over-estimate the "SEC Defense" thing. It's the exact opposite of the P10 -- there is no offense in the conference, so it just makes your defenses look great on paper. This is evident in that all the top teams in the SEC, save LSU, either run gimmick offenses (Florida, Tenn, Arkansas) or virtually no offense at all (Auburn, Georgia).

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

So this has become the official "Will the Buckeyes score 30+?" thread huh.

OK

First, let me add a quick 'thank you' to the Big 10 fans wishing us well. I work with some great Big 10 fans, and we all cheer for each other in Bowl season. Specifically to the Wiscy guys, well done against your half of the SEC championship game. Here's hoping we take care of our half.



Now let's get back to what this thread is really about (now).

In what follows, games against Div. IAA opponents have been factored out for every Div. IA team in the country. This may sound like a lot of work, but if you are a spreadsheet uberdork it's incredibly easy.​

Method I:



Ohio State has averaged 36.33 points per game. Florida has held teams to 56.45% of their average score. If we assume that Florida will hold Ohio State as far below their average score as they've done with everyone else, then we can surmise that Ohio State will score 20.51 points.

So this method suggests OSU will score about 21 points.​

Method II:



Florida gives up 14.5833 points per game to Div. IA opponents. Ohio State scores 164.06% as many points as their opponents typically give up. If we assume that Ohio State will exceed Florida's average scoring defense by the same amount as they've done with everyone else, then we can surmise that Ohio State will score 23.93 points.

So this method suggests OSU will score about 24 points.​

There are two things that neither of these methods takes into consideration. One is schedule strength and the other is untapped potential.

It is not just schedule strength that matters, but the strength of each team's opponents' schedules. Determining how many points a team scores over and above their opponents' averages requires that you compare the team not to their opponents, but to their opponents' opponents.

Although Florida faced a tougher schedule, albeit by a smaller margin than the experts suggest, it was actually Ohio State that was compared to a higher standard by this analysis, as OSU's opponent's faced a collectively tougher schedule than Florida's.

I won't bore you with the analysis for two reasons. The first is that the calculations are too complex for anyone but me to care. The second is because simple logic should tell you that the difference is very small. After 12 games each against Div. IA competition, comparing each team to their opponents' opponents means that the number of unique data points is nearly 100 for each team. The data collectively suggest that the numbers should be skewed 0.8% in OSU's favor, which I think we can agree is meaningless.

It is especially meaningless in light of the other factor in play, which is untapped potential. How many points did OSU leave on the field by playing back-ups when they had a big lead? How many points did Florida's defense allow when they were playing back-ups at the end of blow-outs? These numbers could be quantified with enough work, but there is no point in doing so because untapped potential can be found in so many other places.

For example, Ohio State attempted 10 passes on first down in the opening half of the game in Austin. We attempted one whole pass on first down in the second half. This was a common refrain throughout the season. How many points would Ohio State have scored if they had continued to pass on first down throughout each game? I suppose there might be ways of trying to quantify this, but the numbers would be clouded by still more factors than can possibly be accounted for.

The best way to examine untapped potential is to look at what happened when Ohio State had to score. When they were pressed. This type of analysis predicted an even lower score against Michigan, yet OSU scored 42 because they had to. If they had needed another td on their final drive, they would have scored that too. Or did you not notice that they ran straight into the teeth of a defense that knew they were going to run and got a first down anyway?

So the final upshot is this: OSU has it in them to score a heck of a lot more than 21-24 points. They left a ton of potential on the field this year, far more than Florida's defense can claim to have eschewed.

The question is not, "Will Ohio State score more than 30?"

The question is, "Will they need to?"

But then, this is the last game of the season. There is nothing left to save bullets for. The Buckeyes may well score the points even if they don't need them.

BTW: The above methods predict 11-14 points for Florida.

 

[Jaxbuck]

When is the last time that Ohio State beat an SEC team in a bowl game?

0-7 is what I've heard.

And UF has lost 3 of their last 4 to slow plodders from the B10? Thats what I've heard.

 

[ashlandbuck]

I mean most of you think that OSU is going to score 30+ points on the Gators. No one has scored that much on us all year. I doubt there will be 30 points total in the game.

And all we heard going into the scUM game was how great that scUM defense was and that we would never be able to run the ball...........................187 rushing yards and 42 points later...........