AuTX Buckeye;2362401; said:
Ok folks.. its that time of year again... I ask the wise and mighty members for some help... Draft is coming up... i've finished 10th or worse all 3 years in this league. I pick 4th in a snake draft so any advice strategies will be greatly welcomed
-Don't overpay for mediocre RBs. I have won competitive leagues from the 12 spot by taking elite receivers early. Yes, it's a gamble, but I'd rather have Megatron or AJ Green than the starting RB for, say, the Dolphins or something. That said, if AP or someone like that is there at 4, by all means jump. But if there is a run of one position, let it go and take the best of another.
-Names aren't always names: OK that sounds weird, but like I mean look at Fitzgerald last year. He's LARRY FUCKING FITZGERALD. He is a stud and 3/4, but he had 2 grocery clerks and a bird cage cleaner throwing him passes last year...ergo, his numbers sucked, and many people overdrafted him. Same goes with injuries...I love Jones-Drew, but I don't know if he can play anymore, or at least for very long, like he could 3-4 years ago. Same with RGIII...if he is healthy for 16 games, he is dynamite...if you draft him in the first 2-3 rounds and he plays 2 games, you can light your team with dynamite. Just watch name versus expected production. Some dudes are good that some people haven't heard of.
-Watch guys with new teams, and guys on teams with new guys on their teams: Sometimes it's like ZOMG I CAN GET PLAYER X because he ran for 1400 and/or 10 TDs last year for Team A...except now he will split carries or is option 2 on Team B. This happened with Brandon Jacobs, for example, when he left NY. Also Wes Welker...dude has been good for 120 catches a season, but he now could be option 3 in Denver...but he will also take passes and yardage away from Thomas and Decker. Let the wheels turn.
-Watch one-year wonders: Sometimes I'll look at fantasy points last year as an indicator of potential value, all other things being equal. Sometimes that works, like when evaluating 2 different RBs who are starters again this year, but sometimes it doesn't. For example does anyone expect James Jones to have 11-12 TDs again this year? I don't, which will cut his value in half if he has 5-7 like almost all other receivers do.