Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

[Jagdaddy]

I've met a few. Love to hear war stories though.

My impression is that they are like actors but only worse. Sad, empty creatures who need the outsized limelight to try and fill the cavernous hole in themselves. Pathological narcissists.

The people they supposedly work for are just objects to manipulate to get what they want for themselves.

There's some of that, but at least at the state and local level, less of it than one might think. What is an inherent part of running for office, however, is a belief that one knows better than others how the world, or at least one's little corner of it, should be run and, I agree, more of a need for external validation than the average person.

They also take A LOT of deserved shit and undeserved shit from a lot of different directions and that, over time, makes many of them worse people. I suspect that like cops a lot of them come in with noble intentions and then just get burnt out and cynical based on what they deal with. Also, even at the state level, they're in a bubble where what they see is all there is and what they see are the complainers, activists, and lobbyists who go to town halls or otherwise communicate with, threaten, or bully them (instantly in the social media and electronic communication age) and the media folks who cover them. That distorts their reality and leaves them feeling constantly besieged, which doesn't help their decision making.

TLDR: Point is just that like people who say that those who can't do teach, should step into a classroom for a week and see how it goes, those who categorically hate all politicians probably don't get how shitty a job it really is, again, at least at the state and local levels.

 

[Jaxbuck]

those who categorically hate all politicians probably don't get how shitty a job it really is, again, at least at the state and local levels.

They must feel like there is something in it for them or they wouldn't do it.

Best case that something is, as you mention, the simple ability to tell others how to live their lives. Worst case is corruption. Middle ground is a mix of those two wonderful traits.

No, they have chosen to step forward and declare themselves part of the political ruling class. Anything that happens to them as this epic clusterfuck spins out of control, they have coming.

 

[sparcboxbuck]

They must feel like there is something in it for them or they wouldn't do it.

Best case that something is, as you mention, the simple ability to tell others how to live their lives. Worst case is corruption. Middle ground is a mix of those two wonderful traits.

No, they have chosen to step forward and declare themselves part of the political ruling class. Anything that happens to them as this epic clusterfuck spins out of control, they have coming.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

 

[Jaxbuck]

A good summary (and link to original modeling study) of the Imperial College report we were talking about:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...sts-18-months-covid-19-social-distancing-much

Model considers 3 scenarios, predicts high death count
To understand how mitigation or suppression would play out, the Imperial College team, led by Neil Ferguson, OBE, ran a model based on three scenarios. In the first, US officials do nothing to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, schools and businesses are kept open, and the virus is allowed to move through the population.

This would result in 81% of the US population, about 264 million people, contracting the disease. Of those, 2.2 million would die, including 4% to 8% of Americans over age 70. More important, by the second week in April, the demand for critical care beds would be 30 times greater than supply.

If mitigation practices are put in place, including a combination of case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those most at risk (over age 70), the peak critical care demand would reduce by 60%, and there would be half the number of deaths. But this scenario still produces an eightfold demand on critical care beds above surge capacity.

In order to suppress the pandemic to an R0 of below 1, a country would need to combine case isolation, social distancing of the entire population, and either household quarantine or school and university closure, the authors found. These measures "are assumed to be in place for a 5-month duration," they wrote.

In addition, the authors said, these measures may have to be put back into place if restrictions are lifted and cases surge again.

So to recap:

1) Do nothing option ~ 2.2MM dead, health care system swamped 30x capacity, it's over by end of July/early August

or

2) What we are doing ~ 1.1MM dead, health care system swamped 12x, economy destroyed and untold damage to the fabric of American society.


Neither is pretty but it's a far fucking cry from how the story was first told.

There is, apparently, no scenario where we flatten the curve enough to avoid health care system being swamped and losing million(s) of lives.

I am operating under the assumption that policymakers had access to this study in their planning and that they chose option 2 while telling the media and public it would be a 2 week lockdown.

EDIT: math was wrong on option 2 swamping

 

[jwinslow]

A good summary (and link to original modeling study) of the Imperial College report we were talking about:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...sts-18-months-covid-19-social-distancing-much



So to recap:

1) Do nothing option ~ 2.2MM dead, health care system swamped 30x capacity, it's over by end of July/early August

or

2) What we are doing ~ 1.1MM dead, health care system swamped 12x, economy destroyed and untold damage to the fabric of American society.


Neither is pretty but it's a far fucking cry from how the story was first told.

There is, apparently, no scenario where we flatten the curve enough to avoid health care system being swamped and losing million(s) of lives.

I am operating under the assumption that policymakers had access to this study in their planning and that they chose option 2 while telling the media and public it would be a 2 week lockdown.

EDIT: math was wrong on option 2 swamping

There are 3 options, not 2. We are toying the 3rd one, it's just being deployed very sloppily.

Option 2 is the most common one I hear from folks who are taking this seriously but dislike the current approach. Isolate the sick, their reach and the vulnerable.

 

[jwinslow]

Here was the tweet thread

 

[Jake]

China has just under 1.5 billion people. They've had less than 3,300 deaths over 4-5 months and the rate is slowing.

But if we relax at all before our ENTIRE POPULATION is vaccinated we'll have "millions" of deaths in a few months?

 

[Jaxbuck]

I didn't really list out option 3 because it's just fantasy, even though our leaders have decided to give it a shot to some degree.

He says "after the first suppression period ends in July". He could have stopped there.

If they try to make this last until July there is nothing left to save. You can't have major industries like automotive, airline, hotel/travel, food and beverage completely devoid of revenue for 6 months. Even the strongest of companies will fail. Unemployment will be out of control, lenders start failing because of all the defaults and insurers are squeezed between zero % interest rates and unexpected mortality.

There will be no economy to "lift restrictions" on for this fantasy month in between another 2 month lock down. We'll have a month free to meet up and barter beaver pelts for more guns and ammo.

In the face of the impossible, whatever choice is left, no matter how unpalatable, must be the way forward.

They've missed the boat on #1. Pick #2 and let's try to head off more economic and social damage than these imbeciles have already inflicted.

 

[sparcboxbuck]

Sounds like there’s some promising things coming out of France regarding a malaria drug that has been around for a long time being a potential cure or at least highly effective in eliminating the virus in a large percentage of those treated. Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine apparently have been tested by some docs in France as well as China but the results from China are being held by their government.

Crossing fingers this gets it done.

https://www.businessinsider.com/malaria-pill-chloroquine-tested-as-coronavirus-treatment-2020-3

Have seen a couple of references to this and even one article suggesting that a large pharma (I believe it may be Bayer) may be ramping up production and donating because the costs for chloroquine are very lowl.

 

[Dryden]

You Better Call Saul fans will remember Mike doing this to the Kettlemens to locate their embezzled cash.

 

[jwinslow]

I didn't really list out option 3 because it's just fantasy, even though our leaders have decided to give it a shot to some degree.

He says "after the first suppression period ends in July". He could have stopped there.

If they try to make this last until July there is nothing left to save. You can't have major industries like automotive, airline, hotel/travel, food and beverage completely devoid of revenue for 6 months. Even the strongest of companies will fail. Unemployment will be out of control, lenders start failing because of all the defaults and insurers are squeezed between zero % interest rates and unexpected mortality.

There will be no economy to "lift restrictions" on for this fantasy month in between another 2 month lock down. We'll have a month free to meet up and barter beaver pelts for more guns and ammo.

In the face of the impossible, whatever choice is left, no matter how unpalatable, must be the way forward.

They've missed the boat on #1. Pick #2 and let's try to head off more economic and social damage than these imbeciles have already inflicted.

We can't even do #2, though, because we didn't take this seriously until the night before the exam, and there's no way to be ready to test with a last minute cram session.

 

[Jake]

I didn't really list out option 3 because it's just fantasy, even though our leaders have decided to give it a shot to some degree.

He says "after the first suppression period ends in July". He could have stopped there.

If they try to make this last until July there is nothing left to save. You can't have major industries like automotive, airline, hotel/travel, food and beverage completely devoid of revenue for 6 months. Even the strongest of companies will fail. Unemployment will be out of control, lenders start failing because of all the defaults and insurers are squeezed between zero % interest rates and unexpected mortality.

There will be no economy to "lift restrictions" on for this fantasy month in between another 2 month lock down. We'll have a month free to meet up and barter beaver pelts for more guns and ammo.

In the face of the impossible, whatever choice is left, no matter how unpalatable, must be the way forward.

They've missed the boat on #1. Pick #2 and let's try to head off more economic and social damage than these imbeciles have already inflicted.

With all due respect to the young history professor from Dixie State, he's living in a fantasy world. 18 months won't just affect "our economy and society in profound ways", it'll cause chaos, destruction, and arguably as many deaths as we're allegedly trying to prevent.

I guess the plan is to use the military to attempt to maintain order because there's no fucking way police are going to be able to do it. Hell, they're already setting aside lesser offenses in Philadelphia. If this is what our idiot leaders have in store for the country we are fucked.

 

[OHSportsFan]

China has just under 1.5 billion people. They've had less than 3,300 deaths over 4-5 months and the rate is slowing.

But if we relax at all before our ENTIRE POPULATION is vaccinated we'll have "millions" of deaths in a few months?

This. China is way ahead of US in this thing and it’s not like I’m reading about 1,000 deaths/day.

I’m not asking for sunshine but I do feel like we’re finally doing what it takes and we can manage this thing better than 18 months and million+ deaths.

Anyway, more positive news? (If it’s to be trusted)

 

[OHSportsFan]

And I’ll follow that post with this because my brain can only handle so much semi-seriousness.