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Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

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AKAK said:
Today thats what it says, the other day Florida had zero bed shortage and peak use like may 17. While Ohio had an ICU bed shortage. (Peak usage more or less the same). I realize that the model is limited by the data the states are reporting.

One of the things I am curious about in these is how they account for recoveries. Like in worldometers, Ohio is pretty much straight total cases minus deaths equals active cases. In other words, apparently no one in ohio has recovered from covid 19. New Jersey likewise has over 13K cases, 161 deaths and no reported recoveries. If you're projecting hospitalizations and ventilator needs as a share of active cases over 4 months and a person is only symptomatic for 2 weeks (or whatever it is) that becomes an important number. Now they are clearly accounting for it in some way but its not clear to me how.
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It looks like they are only going to account for "recoveries" from those that left the hospital on two feet.
 
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heisman said:
What am I missing? Looks like a large bed shortage in Florida, but Ohio will be just fine, along with a much flatter curve. Florida has a much higher population and will peak two weeks later. Seems correct to me. No?
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On first thoughts, I'd assume the high retiree population in FL could pose issues.
I noticed a ton of campers returning to VA-MD-PA last week... snowbirds either returning or got kicked out ?

Speaking of retirees, AZ may be another chance to see if heat has any affect on it at all.

AKAK said:
Today thats what it says, the other day Florida had zero bed shortage and peak use like may 17. While Ohio had an ICU bed shortage. (Peak usage more or less the same). I realize that the model is limited by the data the states are reporting.

One of the things I am curious about in these is how they account for recoveries. Like in worldometers, Ohio is pretty much straight total cases minus deaths equals active cases. In other words, apparently no one in ohio has recovered from covid 19. New Jersey likewise has over 13K cases, 161 deaths and no reported recoveries. If you're projecting hospitalizations and ventilator needs as a share of active cases over 4 months and a person is only symptomatic for 2 weeks (or whatever it is) that becomes an important number. Now they are clearly accounting for it in some way but its not clear to me how.
Click to expand...

According to the Dec-Feb stats out of China and cases where they could verify who they got it from...

- most show up for hospitalization 5-10 days after confirmed contact.
- most deaths occur around the 20 day mark
- recoveries tend to max out around 25th day

The length of time people spend in the hospital is a major factor in the bed and staffing side.
This is a virus that seems slow spreading and low mortality b/c if you're in the 24hr news cycle... not a lot happens day to day (until it's reached avalanche momentum).
But each patient sucking up a bed for 2 weeks and easily spreading to 2 other people in that 5-10 days before symptoms... is brutal.
 
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kujirakira said:
On first thoughts, I'd assume the high retiree population in FL could pose issues.
I noticed a ton of campers returning to VA-MD-PA last week... snowbirds either returning or got kicked out ?

Speaking of retirees, AZ may be another chance to see if heat has any affect on it at all.



According to the Dec-Feb stats out of China and cases where they could verify who they got it from...

- most show up for hospitalization 5-10 days after confirmed contact.
- most deaths occur around the 20 day mark
- recoveries tend to max out around 25th day

The length of time people spend in the hospital is a major factor in the bed and staffing side.
This is a virus that seems slow spreading and low mortality b/c if you're in the 24hr news cycle... not a lot happens day to day (until it's reached avalanche momentum).
But each patient sucking up a bed for 2 weeks and easily spreading to 2 other people in that 5-10 days before symptoms... is brutal.
Click to expand...

Do you see where this model is fitting that stuff in? What I'm trying to get at is how they are determining total active cases at any given point in time.
 
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AKAK said:
Do you see where this model is fitting that stuff in? What I'm trying to get at is how they are determining total active cases at any given point in time.
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The same way we were doing testing 3 weeks ago... we aren't.
If you wanted a back-of-napkin estimate, I'd start by tracking the weekly averages of "new cases" vs. "deaths" with an interval around 28 days.
The difference is your recovered.
Makes the assumption that overwhelming majority of cases are resolved (dead or alive) by 4 weeks.
Because a lot of the "new cases" are adjacent family/coworkers/etc. of a hospital patient who got tested but dont have symptoms... self-isolating at home... that just doesn't appear that it's being tracked. A large number will recover on their own, nobody is counting it.
 
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Just listen to the experts like Fauci and not Trump or the media, you'll be fine. I'm looking to be self quarantined at least till the end of June. Not bad for me since I'm retired. It's you working stiff that have to take it on the chin. The Feds will have to keep the money coming for you.
 
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BB73 said:
Like many have suspected, the number of deaths in China appear to heavily under-reported.
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The Chinese government has been LYING to the world?!?!

curb.gif
 
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