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Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

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I’m always hesitant to reply to these types of games.

As entertaining as the answers may be...Asking for your high school mascot? One of the most common password recovery questions? This is asking for a bot to scrape all replies.



sorry to be a party pooper.

(note the Ohio State football QB/WR combo a few days back was nicely/correctly done, only asking for Month and Day...I’ve seen others that could piece together a lot more information and people eat it up)
 
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NJ-Buckeye said:
not sure if facetious or serious... nevertheless
A family friend in NE Ohio posted on FB this morning
Wrote a week ago he was on a ventilator and sure he was done.. they started him on Plaquenil and today home recovering and praying his thanks
More important to me than peer review
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It was completely facetious. The other day I advocated that very important and quality research can be conducted without the stamp of peer review for it to be of quality or importance.

I’m all for peer review and refereed journals, but right now, the speed of information dissemination trumps a lot of importance of minimizing Type I error especially since that if an effect was in fact Type I error, there’s enough research going on attempting to replicate results that Type I error will be identified quickly. The only downside of chasing a Type I error is the the opportunity cost associated with not replicating other results... which could mean lives... but given the large natural experiment we’re going through right now, there’s a readily available subject pool so I think the potential opportunity cost is fairly minimal relative to the potential benefit.

Edit: Glad to hear about your friend. I hope that he fully recovers.
 
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AKAK said:
Now.... All I'm gonna say about this one is, i look at ohio. Then I look at Florida.... Something's not adding up.
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What am I missing? Looks like a large bed shortage in Florida, but Ohio will be just fine, along with a much flatter curve. Florida has a much higher population and will peak two weeks later. Seems correct to me. No?
 
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heisman said:
What am I missing? Looks like a large bed shortage in Florida, but Ohio will be just fine, along with a much flatter curve. Florida has a much higher population and will peak two weeks later. Seems correct to me. No?
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Today thats what it says, the other day Florida had zero bed shortage and peak use like may 17. While Ohio had an ICU bed shortage. (Peak usage more or less the same). I realize that the model is limited by the data the states are reporting.

One of the things I am curious about in these is how they account for recoveries. Like in worldometers, Ohio is pretty much straight total cases minus deaths equals active cases. In other words, apparently no one in ohio has recovered from covid 19. New Jersey likewise has over 13K cases, 161 deaths and no reported recoveries. If you're projecting hospitalizations and ventilator needs as a share of active cases over 4 months and a person is only symptomatic for 2 weeks (or whatever it is) that becomes an important number. Now they are clearly accounting for it in some way but its not clear to me how.
 
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