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Coronavirus (COVID-19) is too exciting for adults to discuss (CLOSED)

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OSU_Buckguy said:

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@OSU_Buckguy -- I'm not crazy here, right? The guy clearly is not saying anything about his original projections, but IS saying that thanks to the measures that have been taken, he believes the actual death toll will be significantly less than he originally projected based on no measures taken. Like, this isn't some grand logical leap here, is it? I don't know how some people aren't getting this.
 
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So, I took stats that popped up in a Google search dropped them into a spreadsheet. "Ratio" here is your "one in n" chance of dying, e.g., your chance of dying from the virus in the US if you catch it is 1 in 69.56. Throughout the entire world as of an hour ago when these stats were published, less than a half million people had the virus (out of 7.8 billion people). Now, the world mortality rate is quite a bit higher than I expected at 4.9%, but if you remove the three countries with the highest mortality rate (Italy, Spain, and Iran), it plummets to 2.74%, or 56% of the overall world rate. What I found intriguing is that Germany and Austria (which border each order) have the lowest mortality rate in Europe, but the rate increases as you move outward to the south and to the west from those countries (Belgium, Netherlands, France, Spain to the west/southwest, and Switzerland and Italy to the south). Jumping the pond to the UK, the rate is fairly close to what it is on the opposite shores of the English Channel with that UK at just under 5% and France and Netherlands almost identical to each other at 5.82% and 5.83% (maybe the channel spotted the UK and eighth of a percent). Conversely, both the US and Canada have a significantly lower mortality rate.


covid-rate.png
 
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Fungo Squiggly said:
@OSU_Buckguy -- I'm not crazy here, right? The guy clearly is not saying anything about his original projections, but IS saying that thanks to the measures that have been taken, he believes the actual death toll will be significantly less than he originally projected based on no measures taken. Like, this isn't some grand logical leap here, is it? I don't know how some people aren't getting this.
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You're completely correct, it's just being ignored.
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
So, I took stats that popped up in a Google search dropped them into a spreadsheet. "Ratio" here is your "one in n" chance of dying, e.g., your chance of dying from the virus in the US if you catch it is 1 in 69.56. Throughout the entire world as of an hour ago when these stats were published, less than a half million people had the virus (out of 7.8 billion people). Now, the world mortality rate is quite a bit higher than I expected at 4.9%, but if you remove the three countries with the highest mortality rate (Italy, Spain, and Iran), it plummets to 2.74%, or 56% of the overall world rate. What I found intriguing is that Germany and Austria (which border each order) have the lowest mortality rate in Europe, but the rate increases as you move outward to the south and to the west from those countries (Belgium, Netherlands, France, Spain to the west/southwest, and Switzerland and Italy to the south). Jumping the pond to the UK, the rate is fairly close to what it is on the opposite shores of the English Channel with that UK at just under 5% and France and Netherlands almost identical to each other at 5.82% and 5.83% (maybe the channel spotted the UK and eighth of a percent). Conversely, both the US and Canada have a significantly lower mortality rate.
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Nice work with all of the reported numbers. A couple of theories on what they indicate.

The rates vary significantly based on the amount of testing being done. China was widely using the method of pointing a thermometer at somebody's forehead to determine if they were likely to have the virus. I think they tested those with a fever way more often than those without one, which would make their percentage of positive test results higher. So there was a high percentage of asymptomatic cases never reported, and a higher mortality rate among confirmed cases. I can't speculate about Iran. Italy is known to have a high percentage of older folks, giving them a higher mortality rate.

Germany has been testing on a widespread basis, which has helped them slow the spread of the virus, and it also reports a great deal more of cases with low-level symptoms, which have a very low mortality rate, but probably a more accurate one.

Hold it. Screw all that, Germans drink a lot of beer. That's the cure - drink beer, people! :drunks:

No, not like that, use social distancing. :beer: ............... :beer:
 
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Jaxbuck said:
"Not trying to be political BUT" post of the morning....

It's 2 am, you've had your fill, at the end of the bar sits a clearly drunk and lonely Nancy Pelosi

Would you?
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As our old friend @scooter1369 always says...."if you can see her face, you're doing it wrong".
 
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