I haven't read the full thread so apologies if this is already posted. The other things to consider when thinking of the seriousness of COVID 19 are the hospitalization rate and how that affects the entire healthcare system.
A limiting factor in all of this is the number of hospital beds and equipment (e.g., ventilators) in the US. If everyone gets sick within a short time frame, the number of hospitalizations will be greater than hospital capacity and more people than necessary will die. Per the CDC, of the patients who are hospitalized, 20% are aged 20-44 years. Even though younger people don't die from COVID 19, they are hospitalized at a pretty high rate and, if so, would be taking up resources at the hospital.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm This is is a quick article summarizing the hospital capacity gap but the conclusion in the article seems pretty clear: "We are at an inflection point and
clearly do not have the capacity to care for our population of COVID-19 patients if the infections occur quickly and there is a spike in acutely ill patients. However, spreading the disease out, and providing new strategies to expand the number of beds and the workforce, can help ensure that we get through this difficult period."
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200317.457910/full/
Watch this video. This is a hospital in Italy. Note that it looks like some of the best modern hospitals we have here in the US. And note that there are patients EVERYWHERE, in hallways, waiting rooms, etc. Even if most of those people survive, this is what we're trying to avoid in the US.
Also, hospitals and staff still need to treat other illnesses. If the hospitals are full of COVID 19 patients, even young ones who are likely to survive, they do not have as much capacity to treat any other illnesses or injuries that happen in every day life, e.g., people who may have cancer or heart disease or may have been injured in a car accident. The person who dies from cancer because there is no room in the hospital may not be counted as a COVID 19 fatality, but would be directly related to the pandemic and should be considered when figuring out how serious this all is.
Finally, a young person may not die from COVID 19 but may require ventilation. There are a limited number of ventilators in the US and if there are too many serious cases, doctors will need to choose who gets treatment, which may be condemning someone else to die who may have had a better chance at survival. Article on this subject:
https://blogs.scientificamerican.co...s-need-ventilators-and-just-one-is-available/
