The post the other night made me want to sit down now that we are at the All-Star break and assess the CBJ chances at making the playoffs.
Figuring that my favorite team is in (and probably on their way to another President's Trophy), I would really like to see Columbus get in to the playoffs so there is a shot I could conceivably go to some games
In the central division, the race is all but over. Columbus is in 2nd place with 56 points (Detroit has 78). A 22-point lead at this point is damned near unheard of. Nashville has 55 points, St. Louis has 51 and Chicago has 50. Not a horrible division by any stretch, and it is arguably deeper than at this point last year.
In the Northwest, Minnesota (59) has a one point lead over Calgary (58) and a two point lead over Vancouver (57) and a three point lead over Colorado (56). Edmonton brings up the rear at 51 points. If ever there was a division with no clear leader, it's this one. Literally Vancouver entered the week with the lead and Minnesota in 3rd. Now it's the other way around. This division also has the chance to beat the crap out of itself with only Edmonton likely to miss the playoffs.
In the Pacific, we have San Jose (61) and Dallas (61) leading with San Jose getting the tie break at this point. Anaheim (60) is right there as well. Phoenix at 54 points is in the race for a spot since they picked up Ilya Bryzgalov (I didn't have to look that name up either
). Only Los Angeles is completely out of the race right now.
Out of the 3 divisions, I think the winners will be:
Detroit (obvious), San Jose/Anaheim (Anaheim is the better team, but San Jose has been more consistent) and Minnesota (better mix of talent than Calgary or Vancouver).
So that is spots 1-3 in this order:
Detroit
San Jose/Anaheim
Minnesota
The loser of the San Jose/Anaheim race will be the 4th seed.
After that, there WILL be a jumble of teams.
Calgary has probably the best player in the bunch with Iginla, but Iggy has no help this year. He'll likely get them into the playoffs but they'll get detonated in the first round.
Vancouver is in a similar situation. With the injuries they've faced so far, it is kind of surprising they are were they are. Roberto Luongo is a good regular season goalie who usually finds a way to lose a game or two in the playoffs by making a stupid play (like he did in the last game against Columbus). Right now I'd say they will also make the playoffs and get bombed in the first round too.
I think Dallas is almost a lock for a spot given that on any given night not against Detroit, they will be the better defensive team. IN fact, this team is better at defense than the one that won the Stanley Cup under Hitch back in 1999.
That leaves one spot for what looks to be 4 teams: Colorado, Columbus, Nashville and Phoenix.
Colorado has a ton of injuries to their forwards. If they were healthy, Colorado probably would win their division, but they aren't. They don't have any consistent goaltending to speak of.
Columbus has the PK and defense to make it along with the goaltending, but scoring consistently can and will remain an issue.
Nashville is a team that has a system on defense that needs to work every night for them to be competitive. When it works, they can beat anyone except Detroit and probably Dallas or Anaheim. When it doesn't the Kings can beat them handily.
Phoenix is a bit of a surprise given where they started the year. Bryzgalov gave them a #1 goalie who can play every night.
Out of this group, the best chances are, IMO, Colorado 50/50, Columbus 45/55 and Phoenix 30/70.
We will know soon enough, Columbus has a very managable stretch coming up where they could easily end up with 10 points in 2 weeks which would really help their cause. Colorado is scraping by with the skin of their teeth and that won't be changing anytime soon. If they get down early, they won't catch up. Also Colorado has a much harder schedule over the next 40 days than just about anyone else. They play virtually every single playoff contender plus St Louis twice and Chicago (who has owned them so far) twice. Phoenix plays in a division where everyone but the Kings are competitive so there likely won't be very many easy nights for them either.
Best Guess right now:
1. Detroit
2. Anaheim
3. Minnesota
4. San Jose
5. Dallas
6. Calgary
7. Vancouver
8. Columbus
