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Cleveland Cavs (2016 NBA Champions)

Sadly, I think the only thing that can stop this Golden State team is the salary cap. They have arguably four of the best 20 players in the league. Beating them last year was one thing, beating them this year is something else entirely. Ultimately, I think Golden State wins in five or six, but here's what the Cavs need to do to upset the Warriors:

1. Beat Steph Curry up. Run him off of every screen, foul him hard, hip check him whenever possible.

2. Force Curry to defend every play. I don't just want Curry engaged on every defensive possession, I want the Cavs to switch screens until he's the primary defender on every play. Wear him out on the defensive end and exploit him as a below-average defender.

3. Get in Durant's head. The Warriors aren't exactly the picture of mental health. They blew a 3-1 lead last year, and Durant's Thunder blew that same lead in the Western Conference Finals.

4. Get in Draymond Green's head. That shouldn't be too hard.

5. Get "good Kyrie." Irving is streaky in the same ways that Kobe was. Kyrie must play like he did in games 5, 6, and 7 last year. Kyrie has to make shots and defend. He's capable of defending but he's rarely willing. Curry brings out the best in Irving for whatever reason though, so this could happen.

6. Win game 1/2 and game 3. This Warriors team is more desperate than last year's iteration. They need to doubt themselves early. They won't take their foot off the gas this year. If they go up 3-1, it's over.

7. Destroy them on the glass. Durant is a good rebounder, so this will be harder than it was last year despite the loss of Bogut.

8. Leave Green and the fifth player on the court (Iguodala or whomever) wide open. Durant, Thompson, and Curry are all among the best three-point shooters in NBA history. Clog the paint, defend those players at the three-point line, and let someone else beat you.

9. Get help from the bench. I hate Cleveland's bench this year, but they need someone to score. Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, or *shudder* Iman Shumpert are going to have to hit shots for the Cavs to have a chance. Korver and Williams are all net-minus defenders at this point in their career, so if they aren't hitting shots, they're useless. I'd like to get Derrick Williams some early minutes to see if he can play in the series. He's athletic and a decent scorer. This is where cutting DeAndre Liggins is going to hurt.

10. Slow it down and defend. You are not going to win any 110+ point games in this series. To beat Golden State, Cleveland will need more games like game 7. I'd like to replicate the gameplan from the 2015 Finals, except this time LeBron won't have to carry the entire offensive load. They shouldn't leave the shot clock above 5 seconds on any possession unless someone has a wide open shot.
 
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Sadly, I think the only thing that can stop this Golden State team is the salary cap. They have arguably four of the best 20 players in the league. Beating them last year was one thing, beating them this year is something else entirely. Ultimately, I think Golden State wins in five or six, but here's what the Cavs need to do to upset the Warriors:

1. Beat Steph Curry up. Run him off of every screen, foul him hard, hip check him whenever possible.

2. Force Curry to defend every play. I don't just want Curry engaged on every defensive possession, I want the Cavs to switch screens until he's the primary defender on every play. Wear him out on the defensive end and exploit him as a below-average defender.

3. Get in Durant's head. The Warriors aren't exactly the picture of mental health. They blew a 3-1 lead last year, and Durant's Thunder blew that same lead in the Western Conference Finals.

4. Get in Draymond Green's head. That shouldn't be too hard.

5. Get "good Kyrie." Irving is streaky in the same ways that Kobe was. Kyrie must play like he did in games 5, 6, and 7 last year. Kyrie has to make shots and defend. He's capable of defending but he's rarely willing. ngs out the best in Irving for whatever reason though, so this could happen.

6. Win game 1/2 and game 3. This Warriors team is more desperate than last year's iteration. They need to doubt themselves early. They won't take their foot off the gas this year. If they go up 3-1, it's over.

7. Destroy them on the glass. Durant is a good rebounder, so this will be harder than it was last year despite the loss of Bogut.

8. Leave Green and the fifth player on the court (Iguodala or whomever) wide open. Durant, Thompson, and Curry are all among the best three-point shooters in NBA history. Clog the paint, defend those players at the three-point line, and let someone else beat you.

9. Get help from the bench. I hate Cleveland's bench this year, but they need someone to score. Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, or *shudder* Iman Shumpert are going to have to hit shots for the Cavs to have a chance. Korver and Williams are all net-minus defenders at this point in their career, so if they aren't hitting shots, they're useless. I'd like to get Derrick Williams some early minutes to see if he can play in the series. He's athletic and a decent scorer. This is where cutting DeAndre Liggins is going to hurt.

10. Slow it down and defend. You are not going to win any 110+ point games in this series. To beat Golden State, Cleveland will need more games like game 7. I'd like to replicate the gameplan from the 2015 Finals, except this time LeBron won't have to carry the entire offensive load. They shouldn't leave the shot clock above 5 seconds on any possession unless someone has a wide open shot.

Let me respond to these points as a Warriors fan

1. 100% true. This is what you have to do to Steph. Chuck him when he tries to go through the lane, grab when he tries to run the baseline, etc. Just restrict his movement at all times. The refs will only call it once or twice a game.

2. He's not actually a below average defender. He's ok. He's smart and sound and tries hard, which goes a long way, especially for a point guard. 100% agree again, though, that they should try and run the Kyrie/LeBron PnR at him at much as possible. That's one of the most deadly plays in the league and you obviously want to attack Steph more than Klay, Iguodala, KD, or Draymond.

3. Don't agree that that Durant or the Warriors are mentally fragile. Teams and players lose. It happens. Then they move on. LeBron had a Richie Tenenbaum at Wimbledon style meltdown in 2011 and won the title next year.

4. Even Warriors fans are worried about Draymond going insane and costing the team lol

5. Warriors fans are also worried about Kyrie. He might be the best shot maker in the league and I think he'll have a big series.

6. The Warriors aren't desperate, they're determined. And they have a different team than last year. If the Cavs win it will be b/c they have the better basketball team, not b/c the Warriors are seeing ghosts.

7. Agreed here. Rebounding is one of the Warriors' only weaknesses and Thompson gives them a lot of trouble.

8. It's hard to "leave" Green b/c he has the ball a lot. Or if he doesn't have the ball he is setting a pick. You can leave Iguodala in the corner, but then the Warriors are still playing 4 on 4 with 4 all stars. They'll just run action to the other side of the court if LeBron tries to guard Iguodala and play free safety. Or Iguodala will back cut every play. I'm curious to see this year who LeBron guards. Last year the Warriors had 2 players you didn't really have to worry about in Barnes and Iguodala. So LeBron could either hide on Barnes or guard Draymond and mess up the high pick and roll the Warriors like to run with Steph & Draymond. Not sure he can do that this year with KD on the Warriors b/c the Cavs don't really have a good matchup for him other than LeBron.

9. I think the benches are a wash overall. I am worried about that Lebron + shooters bench lineup though. And for some reason the Warriors usually play the first half of the 2nd quarter with both Steph & KD on the bench. Could be an opportunity for the Cavs to make a run if they keep doing that.

10. Controlling the pace will be big. LeBron and Kyrie are so deadly in the half court. I do think the Warriors have the better defense, though, and now with KD they have a half court scoring option they didn't have last year.

Should be a great series. Looking forward to it as much as any sporting event since the '06 tsun game.
 
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The only way I see this being the last rematch is if Durant opts out then decides to sign someplace else. The Warriors are going to lose more of their bench, but with their big 4 and a bench full of ring chasers they should be able to make it back. In the East I don't see anyone closing on the Cavs unless Lebron hits a wall. Boston really needs to trade away IT while he has value and continue building for a couple years from now. They were a better team after IT went down. Hayward would be a good signing since he has played well against the Cavs in the past. They better hope one of these Nets picks turns into a superstar.

I said "hopefully" this is the last rematch. I wasn't making a prediction. :biggrin2:

I agree about IT. I'm not interested in giving a max contract to a guy 5 inches shorter than me who can, because we've seen it, be somewhat neutralized against top competition in a playoff series. I would love to see Hayward in a Celtics uniform, playing for his college coach, but Fultz (presumably the #1 pick) had better pan out.

As for the Finals, some of us aren't fascinated by seeing Cavaliers-Warriors every year. Have this rubber match, then let's see something different please.
 
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Series odds according to ESPN Basketball Power Index.

Cleveland Cavaliers - 7%
Golden State Warriors - 93%

That seems absurd to me. I see it more like this:

Cavaliers - 40%
Warriors - 60%

Golden State should be favored, but to suggest they'd win 93 out of 100 series...nah.
 
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That seems absurd to me. I see it more like this:

Cavaliers - 40%
Warriors - 60%

Golden State should be favored, but to suggest they'd win 93 out of 100 series...nah.

Vegas implied odds are about 75% for GS

meaning they are getting their desired level of two way action on the series at about GS -300

I don't know much about the NBA but it seems like there is value on Cleveland at that price
 
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