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Cleveland Cavs (2016 NBA Champions)

I expect that Thompson will get the max, and that's fine as long as he continues to play like he's been playing during the playoffs. I don't want him to expend this level of energy during the regular season, of course, but I do expect above average production on the glass and some quality minutes on the defensive end (which is perhaps his biggest improvement this year). Before this season he wasn't worth 10 million a year, and I have trouble believing he won't regress when it isn't a contract year. We'll see, though.

This might just be TT developing and getting extra minutes. Griffin seems to think he is working hard not just because it's a contract year:

http://www.fearthesword.com/2015/4/...will-get-twice-as-much-money-as-ed-davis-this

Thompson is a great locker room guy, and his motor is not in question. Cavs general manager David Griffin is on record saying that he believes Thompson will add a jump shot because he works too hard not to. I don't know when or if that is actually going to happen, but the team clearly believes in Thompson's work ethic and coachability. Don't think that has an effect? Look at two areas Thompson has drastically improved on in the last 18 months. He passes out after offensive rebounds instead of going up and getting blocked, and he has almost completely cut out shooting at all if it isn't at the basket.
 
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That's great to hear. Maybe Tristan will really make some leaps in his game over the next year or two. It seems like there are a lot of guys who take a while until they really make that jump and Tristan, like Kyrie, are the same age as fifth-year seniors in college from this past year. Just one year older than Amir Williams.

There's a part of me that's been worried that Tristan's playoff success might be a bit of fool's gold, and that he might never add some of the missing parts of his game. At least it won't be for a lack of trying if he doesn't develop.
 
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How are Cavs fans in general feeling about the matchup with the Warriors?

I'm cautiously optimistic. I think the series will mostly be determined by how much time Kyrie can guard Curry and how much Kyrie can make Curry work on defense. If Kyrie can play 35 minutes a game without gimping around I think the rest of the Cavs roster matches up well with the Warriors. The Cavs front court is better than the Warriors, but the Warriors guards are their biggest advantage even if Kyrie is 100%. I think Shump and Smith can do a good job defending Thompson, Barnes, Iggy, etc, but there is no place to hide Kyrie against the Warriors starters so either he can defend Curry or he will only play 25 minutes a game when they get a matchup that they can try to hide him against.

The Cavs biggest advantage is with their bigs. Green might be the best defender against Lebron, but they can't cross-match Barnes on TT or else he'll get every rebound. Even if the Cavs go small the Warriors have to keep a true center on the floor to check TT or Mozzy with Green on Lebron.

The Cavs win the series if:
1: Lebron goes Lebron 4 out of the next 7 games
2: The Finals pressure/time off gets to the Warriors and their shooting goes the way of Kyle Korver
3: Kyrie looks like he's 100%, defends Curry adequately, and/or goes Kyrie in a couple games

JR Smith is another guy that could steal a game for the Cavs if he has one of those JR kind of games.
 
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The Cavs win the series if:
1: Lebron goes Lebron 4 out of the next 7 games
2: The Finals pressure/time off gets to the Warriors and their shooting goes the way of Kyle Korver
3: Kyrie looks like he's 100%, defends Curry adequately, and/or goes Kyrie in a couple games

JR Smith is another guy that could steal a game for the Cavs if he has one of those JR kind of games.

So, long story short, we're hoping for #1, and we need number 2 to happen to the Warriors at least one game at home. #3... well... unfortunately I think you just have to play disciplined D on Curry and just make him really work throughout the series... even

Personally, Smith is gonna have to have one of those JR kind of games a few times no matter what.
 
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The importance of Game 1:

I'm going to assume two things: (a) that the Cavs will not win Game 7 on the road, and (b) the Cavs will not win any two games on the road.

With those two assumptions, in order for the Cavs to win the title, they will have to win all three of their home games and finish the series at home in Game 6.

If the Cavs lose the first two games in Golden State, then they will have to win four in a row (Games 3, 4, 5, and 6) - nearly impossible.

If the Cavs lose Game 1 in Golden State, then they will have to win three in a row (Games 2, 3, and 4) - not likely.

The most realistic scenario for a Cavs' title is this: Win Game 1, lose Game 2, win Games 3 and 4, lose Game 5, and win Game 6.

Tonight's game is huge for the Cavs.
 
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The thing is you never know what game the Cavs will win if Lebron goes all Lebron. I think they could win any road game almost anyplace if that happens but that is a big question mark. I can also see them winning any game if Irving would go off with another 55 point performance but I do not think that is going to happen.

Almost everyone is picking the Warriors to win at all solo will make it even sweeter if the Cavaliers can win this thing.
 
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Almost everyone is picking the Warriors to win ...

Kinda reminds me of January

Screen_Shot_2014-12-10_at_11.21.01_AM.0.0.png
 
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2 things I am watching for:

1- mix and match defending: this team has a rare mix of decent defenders of varying sizes, with some being better on-ball and some off-ball. Will they switch up at times? The great ones can get comfortable at anything if the see it enough, so will they and can they mix and match to keep the splash bros. off balance?

2- David Blatts Time Outs: no, not the ones he doesn't have :lol: but the Warriors are more a team of runs than almost any team I have seen. Houston played them even most of that series, but there was a spot in every game that GS just torched them. Pat Riley was the best I ever saw at killing runs with judicious timeouts. The Atlanta coach waited way too long to call most of his. Can they prevent the big run? Blatt will have to be better than he has been.
 
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The importance of Game 1:

I'm going to assume two things: (a) that the Cavs will not win Game 7 on the road, and (b) the Cavs will not win any two games on the road.

With those two assumptions, in order for the Cavs to win the title, they will have to win all three of their home games and finish the series at home in Game 6.

If the Cavs lose the first two games in Golden State, then they will have to win four in a row (Games 3, 4, 5, and 6) - nearly impossible.

If the Cavs lose Game 1 in Golden State, then they will have to win three in a row (Games 2, 3, and 4) - not likely.

The most realistic scenario for a Cavs' title is this: Win Game 1, lose Game 2, win Games 3 and 4, lose Game 5, and win Game 6.

Tonight's game is huge for the Cavs.

Yeah, I think the only other scenario is that you flip flop game one and five... and the only reason that seems like a path to the championship is merely because we don't know how the series looks by then. (Having said all that, assuming Kyrie is as healthy as he's going to be and that he will diminish over time, then game 1 or 2 become critical)

Finally, as much as you're right on the percentages, that they won't win game 7 on the road, if its unavoidable... if it comes down to one game... they will have LeBron... and that gives you a punchers chance.
 
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I absolutely cannot see the Cavs winning this series. I think the Warriors win in 6, or even 5.

Like LJB said, a win tonight is monumental in trying to secure an NBA title. The best chance the Cavs have is David Blatt outwitting Steve Kerr, who seems to be a basketball genius. When Maccabi Tel Aviv won their last title, it was said that Blatt was the only advantage their team had over the competition. It's going to take a killer gameplan to shut down Curry and score against the best defense in the NBA. Lineups are going to be key tonight, and most of that will involve deciding on Kyrie and playing big or small ball against the Warriors. The issue Golden State presents is that they're comfortable going big or going small. If Kyrie is playing poorly I expect Blatt to limit his minutes and improvise with Dellavedova. I think the Cavs will start by playing a PG on Curry, but I think he'll torch us. That means it will be up to Shumpert to contain him going forward, and while I'm sure Shumpert can handle the task, I am concerned about Kerr adapting to that.

The big trouble for the Cavs comes when the Warriors run 1/2 screens with Curry and Thompson and force Kyrie to switch back on Curry. Curry is going to be too much for Kyrie on one leg. We have to hope that Blatt can surpass Kerr in the chess match, and then look to Kyrie to gut out a 30 point game or two. LeBron and the supporting cast will have to play well on the same nights, and we have to hope Curry and Thompson aren't both lighting it up from 3 in the same game. They say nothing comes easy in Northeast Ohio, and if the Cavs manage to pull this off, that will certainly remain true.
 
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