Buckeneye
I lead, you follow.
I wanted to let you know, I haven't forgotten about this and I have a detailed response to you I'm working on. One that charts the difference in target depth percentage, personnel groupings and route combinations. Because going off of straight YPC without further context was a head scratcher until I started watching more.
@bigdog3300
Better late than never.
Went back and charted snaps from each of Watson and Flaccos first 4 starts on the season. And the reason why I initially suspect that YPC was a bad, single metric to use as overwhelming proof of Joe being the better option ended up holding true. I'll simplify why.
- The coaches knew we would struggle in pass pro as early as pre-season. Especially on the left side with Jed. He's been playing like a bottom 5 tackle since middle of last year.
- To compensate, and to bring the offense more "up to date" and in line with Watson's strengths, something they tried with Baker... We ran significantly more 11 personnel, 11 from the gun, and more empty under Watson than under Flacco. I'm at work without the numbers in front of me, but it was multiple percentage points in separation (higher for Watson) when I was crunching.
- Not only personnel and formation differences, but protection differences as well. The coaching staff would allow Watson more options and to work that space, especially the horizontal game, to negate pressure. So there were more 4 and 5 in the pattern. Where, with Flacco, the team went back under center and threw the ball from stronger action looks and used a lot more 2+leak and 3 man+chip designs, which tend to invite more vertical shots (calculated ones) So the coaches dealt with pass pro issues by handing the keys of the car to Watson and say "dealers choice" while bullet proofing the windows with Joe. Both experienced varied results.
- The differences in personnel, protection and formation also highlight why Flacco has a higher depth of target. Because the response was to bottle up pressure and let the big QB stand tall with more time. More time tends to mean more shots down field. This is also spelled out in the significantly fewer amount of empty sets the Browns would run under Flacco from 11 and 21 personnel, where they could use those same sets with Watson on early downs to catch defenses in "base" or nickel.
This really goes back to why I saw you use YPC as your argument metric. While you weren't wrong with the number itself, it's why I always say that numbers without context can be hollow. Flaccos turnover rate and near turnover throws were minimized by minor miracles and some favorable games and special plays. It wasn't a sustainable method of winning and it came crashing down, painfully and somewhat predictably, in the playoffs against a young but talented Houston squad.
Did this team magically rebound with Flacco? Not really, they were benefits of good fortune, solid coaching, defense generating turnovers and digging deep to keep fighting. I give Joe credit for his statesman like care and Dad like hand he stretched out over the team. I'm sure that meant a lot and the fans responded well to it. But that only carries you so far in a season in the NFL.
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