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Cleveland Browns (Finally drafting Buckeyes)

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LordJeffBuck said:
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I haven't checked, but I'm positive Phillips will be one of the worst graded LB's in the NFL.
Taki will probably grade out favorably, but that's only because he's been used as a 2 down LB and is subbed on nickel and dime sets.
JoK is a missile against the run when you keep him clean, but his coverage has been spotty.

Patriots open at +3. I'm going to check injury reports, but I'm climbing all over Stevenson at damn near whatever prop line they have him at. I see no reason why they don't abuse this defense as bad as they did last season. Even with a backup QB in.


edit: Broken record, but for those in the back - this defensive ineptitude is a systemic issue that places overwhelming defensive emphasis on coverage and pass rush. To the point where the Browns brass has overlooked the IDL and the edge depth (I still don't understand why they valued Alex Wright so high) in such a way that its created the most fundamental weakness in defensive football - right up the middle.

Toss in with the NFL going to more 2 high shell designs to slow down the modern passing game and these good, young QB's, I believe you're going to see a renewed focus on Dline play across the league. Not only Dline play, but the running game as well. You can't be the Bengals, where you're scratching the bottom of the well to run the rock, even though you have the talent on paper. You don't need a dominant running game, but you do need an effective one. Because if you can't force these single high looks, then your play action game on early downs suffers, and your quick passing game that is now the extension of your running game, becomes that much more inefficient. The Bengals - Ravens game last night is an example and exactly why I played the under.

And if you're the Browns or any of these other teams making a transition from predominantly single high systems, then you're going to need a kick ass front 7 in order to get away with the light box counts. It's the offensive/defensive response circle of life, and right now NFL defenses this season have scored some huge early wins. I trust the Ivy League's in the Ivy Tower (I like how that fits) are seeing these trends and are making early phone calls before the trade deadline.

I said this elsewhere a couple weeks ago, but Matt Rhule is a lame duck. Turns out he's been canned. That won't save the Panthers season, not by a long shot. But there will be some pieces on the block at a very agreeable price. Berry needs to start by picking up the phone and throwing a 6th rounder to Carolina for Bravvion Roy.
 
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LordJeffBuck said:
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Um, I don't think those guys understand how the smartest guys in the room evaluate their players. It's not about the score at the end of the game. It is about their analytics, which are never wrong. (note sarcasm font).

These guys remind me of my stats professor at OSU. "Statistics never lie. But, I can get them to tell me anything I want."
 
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BuckBackHome said:
Um, I don't think those guys understand how the smartest guys in the room evaluate their players. It's not about the score at the end of the game. It is about their analytics, which are never wrong. (note sarcasm font).

These guys remind me of my stats professor at OSU. "Statistics never lie. But, I can get them to tell me anything I want."
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Analytics told one of the previous brain trusts to draft Owen Marecic. I'm not saying analytics are a bad thing, but in the hands of the wrong people they're about as useful as pepperoni on ice cream.
 
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read this from Atlanta back in May... not making me feel warm and fuzzy

https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2022/...son-program-with-shoulder-injury-arthur-smith

Jones graded out with a horrendous 34.6 overall grade according to PFF in 2021
Among the 58 linebackers who played at least 50% of their team’s snaps in 2021, Jones was graded out by PFF as the fourth worst in the NFL, and he had the single worst coverage grade among all of those specific peers (33.8).

since we desperately need a LB with exceptional pass coverage skill I'm scratching my head.. altho we got him for nothing and we aren't paying him anything... so guess we have little to lose...
 
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NFBuck said:
Analytics told one of the previous brain trusts to draft Owen Marecic. I'm not saying analytics are a bad thing, but in the hands of the wrong people they're about as useful as pepperoni on ice cream.
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One of the problems with all NFL Draft Analysis -- of both the "eye test" and statistics varieties -- is that there has never been an accounting.
If you drafted by Mel Kiper's boards, you would have a consistently 4-12 team.
The last step to all legitimate Modeling is to take what your model predicts, and test it against the reality. That never happens with any of these guys.
Which inevitably means it's all theatre.
 
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LordJeffBuck said:
According to PFF, Phillips is 75th out of 78 qualifying LBs.
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Not at all surprised. He's slow to diagnose, weak when he has to scape then come downhill and there are times where I flat out don't understand how he finds himself at coverage landmarks on the field.

LB's are the glue that hold a defense together.

Of the position groups on defense.

-CB
-DB
-LB
-IDL
-Edge

2 of 5 are bottom of the barrel and simply not starting NFL material as a unit. That's 40% of your defense, for those doing the math. And worst of all, it's the most fundamental 40% of those groups.

I trust there has been, and will continue to be, an adjustment to roster building and philosophy by the brain trust of the Browns.

Like @kujirakira said when contrasting models vs real world results, the CLE brass has no choice but to do that. So I'd hope part of their system involves a continuous self analysis and refinement.
 
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sooo Stefanski isn’t maybe the wonderkin we thought he was? or is Woods that bad…. so does it fire him now, end of season , or do they both get shown the exit at the end of the season?

too harsh?
 
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AuTX Buckeye said:
sooo Stefanski isn’t maybe the wonderkin we thought he was? or is Woods that bad…. so does it fire him now, end of season , or do they both get shown the exit at the end of the season?

too harsh?
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Stefanski is another one of those genius play callers who just out thinks himself and gets too cute. Sometimes the most obvious play is the best even if the defense knows it’s coming.
 
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