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Cleveland Browns (Finally drafting Buckeyes)

The Browns have won all but one of their games in which they ran the ball more than 30 times. They have lost all but one of the games they have ran the ball under 30 times. They outliers were the Bengals and Chargers games. Also for what it's worth, they trended towards 35-40 carries in wins and 20-23 carries in losses. It's a noticeable difference.

I don't care who the opponent is. The Browns are built to run the ball. They lose every time they don't run the ball. I don't need advanced stats to tell me that they simply lose when they pass more than they throw. If you let the other team dictate what you can or can't do, you've already lost. I can't comprehend how anyone could defend the playcalling that we've seen a significant portion of this season.
 
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He's only 27.. most likely be fine by May workouts... gives everything including elbow time to heal... He's got another half dozen good years

Hadn't paid attention before but looks like most or all Browns linemen don't wear this knee braces?!?!?
 
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I don't understand the bench Baker talk this week. They should have sat him against the Lion to try to get him healthy, but they need him against teams like the Ravens. I haven't reviewed the film, but I feel like there were several drive killing dropped passes and WR's with tight coverage. I only remember a couple really bad balls and Baker didn't throw any arm punts like Lamar was chucking. Maybe Baker was missing open receivers, but it seems like they would have shown guys running around wide open on replays after the drama over the past few weeks. I think there are major play calling issues right now that need to get fixed over the bye week. There's no reason a team should be able to overload the box like the Ravens did without open receivers on PA. Maybe the 3 TE offense makes it too easy to cover, but it feels like a team with Landry, DPJ, and Njoku should be able to get open. I really think Stefanski needs to take a step back and let the OC call the plays in the game. It seemed to work pretty well against the Steelers last year.
 
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@Buckeneye @AKAK just stated your biggest problem is that you think you are the smartest one in the room and trust me you are not and I am talking specifically about the Browns forum

Apologies about not getting back to you guys sooner, wasn't my intent to be disrespectful in that sense. Suffered a loss on Tuesday that was unexpected. I'll be back home at some point today and will give you a response. Appreciate the patience.
 
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Apologies about not getting back to you guys sooner, wasn't my intent to be disrespectful in that sense. Suffered a loss on Tuesday that was unexpected. I'll be back home at some point today and will give you a response. Appreciate the patience.
Sorry for your loss!

I’ll say again, I appreciate your breakdowns and analysis while the rest of us shitpost about how we hate the team. Adds value and hope it continues.
 
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Part 1



Sorry to hear that news, @Buckeneye.

Sorry for your loss!

I’ll say again, I appreciate your breakdowns and analysis while the rest of us shitpost about how we hate the team. Adds value and hope it continues.


Thank you for that. I won't drone on, it is what it is. We all have to find a way to keep on living, some days it's just going to be more weird than others.
Looking back might be the worst thing we can all do. Because we find ourselves longing to make things as they were, as opposed to making them as good as they can be now. Anywho.

Before I start, I'm going to warn anyone who reads this - it's long winded as all hell. Going to break it into 3 posts for that very reason. If you stick with me to the end, that's outstanding.
If you don't? Well you took my warning and I can't blame you for it.

So now that I have everyone's attention, to quote from Halo "Now I will talk, and you will listen"


Part 1



I have no issue with your opinions, but your opinion of your opinion is a little much. But yes, the interaction with Litl was on my mind, and if you don't like him singling you out, then maybe you should be aware of that too.

This is fair point and I went back after you posted this to further understand that little blow up. I had made mention that it would be concerning to watch a somewhat efficient offense with Keenum at the helm. Concerning for Baker, mostly. Obviously he's on the cusp of a "pay or not pay (yet?) type of off-season. I also followed up that post linking season stats as respective full time starters.

The response I received was...

I know that you are not a Baker fan but that statement is one of your funnier ones.

Funny? Oh like I amuse you? Like I'm a clown or something? (Had to toss that in, don't really mean it) But this post, the one I'm quoting here, was a not-so-thinly veiled insult.

I followed up by posting facts between Baker and Keenum showing their complete seasons are so close that it is within a percentile in every meaningful category. Even the one that isn't meaningful - rushing attempts/yards. Which was still within a single percent of each other. I also (at that point slightly sarcastically given the response to my reasoning) mentioned the similarities in offensive coaches and philosophy. Down to even saying I would link articles talking about the influence Stef has received from Shurmur and Kubiak. Both are better coordinators and offensive minds than actual head coaches. The only real difference(s) between that Vikings team and the Browns of last year was that the Vikes had superior receivers. The Browns had a superior Oline and running backs. Given the comparative weaknesses and strengths between Case and Baker, I'd favor the running game and Oline being improved over having the perimeter weapons for both of them.

I asked what further funny takes I could clear up? Genuinely meant that as well... didn't hear anything after that post. Which I put a decent amount of thought into I might add. Now that I think of it, the follow up, which came much later was that I am a "Baker Basher". That is the extent my thought-out rebuttal received. Peachy. I trust you can understand why anyone would be annoyed.




As for my perceived attitude? Here are my main issues with talking football as it boils down.

- Was there anything contributed to the conversation?
- Is your opinion of any originality or is this rehashed from a meme, site, etc etc? That you're simply tossing in the microwave and serving up?
- (The biggest) have you gone back to watch ANY of the film for yourself?

Getting ahead of myself on that 3rd part - football isn't a game played, coached or managed by geniuses (not my words, I'm just borrowing)

Barring someone holding something back in these threads for years, I'm going to assume that I'm the only person on this board who actually pays the money for the All-22 film on NFL game pass, along with subscribing to a handful of channels with further cutups and film available between the pro's and college. I would also venture that I'm likely the only one who puts a pretty respectable amount of time to go back and watch that film. Why? I'm passionate about football. More importantly, I make time for the topics I'm most passionate about because I really can't stand being a run-of-the-mill fan. I've sought to expand my understanding and improve my command of the game since the day I last walked off the field as a younger guy playing (2016). I think anyone who holds something in such a regard and wants to contribute to a board like this should do it. Football, as it is presented to the fans in broadcast, is in such a limited scope. The broadcast view is narrow, and the game itself so fast that not even the greatest football minds base their decisions without going back over and fine tooth combing that footage. So if you're not doing what I'm doing, then how much can one really offer outside of a lukewarm opinion without a whole hell of a lot backing it up. For example, I remarked the pass rush the first few weeks was underwhelming. Then I went back to watch and saw the pass rush was actually pretty damn good. The pressure rates were also outstanding and that the Dline was getting after it. It's just you played a stretch of QB's with the mobility to neutralize that pass rush, until the Bears planted poor Justin square in the pocket with one of the worst set of tackles in the NFL.

"Opinion is the lowest form of human knowledge; it requires no accountability, no understanding." - George Elliot.

This commitment to seeking knowledge and understanding of what we see for 3 hours on Sunday has really helped shape what I post here. I put in the effort, the focus and most importantly the time.
While this stance of mind sounds slightly arrogant by saying "I put in the work", I will counter by saying this - if you haven't equally put in the work, but expect to be equal ground, whom is truly the more arrogant sounding then?


So forgive my "snark" but when I see things like....

I haven't reviewed the film

(received a like from @LitlBuck, by the way)



I don't care who the opponent is. The Browns are built to run the ball.

Which is like saying "I don't care if we're playing Tom Brady, sit in base and don't mix up your looks because we're an "xx insert coverage team here"

And for as much as the Browns are built to run the ball, the Ravens have been equally as built and adept at stopping it.



They used to run it no matter what the other team was doing. And they were winning games when they did that.

Yes, no matter WHAT the other team was doing. Except for....

(2018)
HOU
LAC
Balt (both times)
NO

(2019)

In 2019
TEN
RAMS
Niners
NE
DEN
PIT
BALT
CIN

(2020)

BALT
PIT
LV
HOU (skin of our teeth W)


2021
Zona
NE
PIT
BALT

You'll have to forgive me for rolling my eyes just a little, because this is an incredibly short-sighted take that isn't based in fact nor reality. The Browns HAVE run the ball in previous years at teams and teams have limited that game. We've seen losses to better teams dating back to Baker's rookie season to prove that.

You see, friend, you acknowledge that this team is built to run the ball (they are), then you have to accept that there are defenses built and well coached enough to limit that running game. You can't have one exist and not the other, that isn't the chess match that football really is. For years we watched great running teams rush head first into a Silver Bullet wall... It was what we wanted them to do. Until along came Purdue, along came Philip Rivers, along came Vince Young, Juice Williams, Chad Henne, (one time was enough) Matt Flynn, Mark Sanchez, Deshaun Watson etc etc. You cannot lean so heavily on one aspect of your game and demand that aspect be dominant against other elite athletes and professionals who are well coached and determined to stop it. Vice versa, the Bucks leaned so heavily on our running game that we depended on our defense, turnover margin and Krenzel to pull a small handful of plays out of his ass to get wins. We would watch our offenses unable to take advantage of better matchups that were needed to keep them from bogging down.



This picture was about par the course that the Browns dealt with all damn game save for (by my count) 3 plays when they didn't get a +1 box count (2 high) It's something they'll have to contend with going forward as well. Because the one marginally explosive threat we had (OBJ) is gone. Toss in a QB like Baker who is about as up and down as it gets along with a porous RT situation now.

The Cincy game was fool's gold, which is exactly why I didn't post after that. I also texted a friend "Would like to see Baker without a positive game script now". I.E. when the running game isn't making life easy, I need to see your ability. A large, and I do mean LARGE contingent of Browns fans were convinced that once Odell was gone things would magically hum again.

It's like anything, people need simplicity. They need simple answers to complex questions - Who is the hero and who is the villain? (In a matter of speaking)

Box count.jpg








That's 10 bodies within 9 yards of the ball. That's a defense not giving a damn about your QB or receivers because even if you hit a couple throws, they still don't think you can do it all game.

I might sit down with a professional poker player and bullshit my way into winning a hand or two, but I ultimately know that pot is going to be his. Because he's the professional who has put the time into mastering his craft, he has seen my style of play before and he is adept enough to take advantage of my weaknesses by structuring his strength around it.

The Ravens have limited opposing rushing games the entire season. They've been doing it well for 20 years with the exception of a season here or there. The Browns do not have the tools necessary to punish this type of defensive play, the counter required in order to force Baltimore's hand. Though they're are adjustments that can be made. I'm going to detail those along with my issues with Baker in the next post.
 

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Part 2 - Baker and my long standing concerns.



This post of mine is dated from November 21st, 2017.
It's on a Browns Backers site and I was asked to do a play breakdown of the 1st half of the Bedlam game that year watching Baker. A former team-mate wanted my thoughts on him.
So I did a play by play. Cut out about 25 plays and just did the ones I provided additional commentary with.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

" Looks for the safety and doesn't identify or move the zone defender before throwing.
Pressure off right side. Misses wide
Open drag from 'X' receiver after clear out. Overthrows open 6'5 target. This is where I talk about him resetting in the pocket and seeing the field."


"Gun stack left Z Jet sweep. Reverse RPO. Camera drifts away. QB throws back across body to farside hash into traffic."

"Gun offset Wing R PAF #2 on Over. Takes read, tries "look off" comes back to #2. Good matchup. Puts too much on ball.
Doesn't allow larger TE to take advantage of smaller DB 9/16 TD INT. PI could/should have been called"

** At this point I'm not in love with Bakers ball placement** He loves throwing heaters and doesn't appear to be able to change
velocity on his throws when he has to come off his primary or is forced to reset in the pocket.


"Gun Trey Wing Left... Technically quad left w/ backfield. Setup to show fake screen from earlier fumble for TD.
QB draw with no lead. Not a very good head fake or sell. Beats safety with stiff arm. That just ain't happening in the NFL
Great determination though and quick choice on running lane. 9/16 Rush TD Pass TD INT"

" Gun offset 2x2 Nearside clearout/ double move slant combo. Slight pump fake on the #2 vertical, comes back to slant.
Ball is put on receiver in stride though still slightly behind him. First time I've seen Baker stay in the pocket, read then deliver.
Good pass pro by HB. Solid footwork and drive through the throw. 10/17 RUSH TD PASS TD INT YAC for TD.
This offense looks fun as Sheet to play in. Lincoln Riley is the reason for this teams turn around."

**** Notice a lot of misdirection, screens and sweeps to setup the QB rollouts. They aren't NFL style bootletgs or waggles. Pair that with
3 man Max pro concepts and when in the pocket, working the 2 man game to one side of the field***

**** This film really stands out to me as showing that the Oklahoma offense is just fun n gun and per usual - Big 12 defenses are just trash.****
P.S. Mason Rudolph has ZERO ball command. The dude just launches Sheet full speed. No ability to pace his throws and accuracy is beyond spotty.


***** The offense is friendly - very. Any vertical throws are done off heavy play action and usually with Max pro.
The major difference between this year and last are the passing/protection concepts and how Oklahoma is choosing to attack the field.
So far the passing game outside of quick screens is non existent without heavy PAP, fake Jet sweeps and misdirection. There are
Very few if any straight drops. In fact I counted one in the first half and that was the INT. I haven't done the math but I would be curious
As to the numbers on depth of throw


***** The simplicity of the passing system has been a big deal for the Sooners. I didn't see Mayfield work progressions from the pocket save for
Maybe once. It doesn't appear as if he's comfortable doing so with any type of regularity. Right now when not using Max protect and designed
QB rollouts, Oklahoma attempts to limit their passing game to one side of the field giving Mayfield a 1a or 1b situation. The double teams
That their TE (Andrews) draws really gives them the flexibity to draw the attention of safeties thus giving very obvious 1on1 outside throws
Usually to whatever side of the field he doesn't occupy. Scrambling QB in a friendly system. Doesn't have elite measurables, acceleration, speed or accuracy. Right now I have Mayfield as a 3rd to 4th round grade only because of how critical The QB position is.



However I'm positive he'll be drafted much higher based on what I've just said. Physically the arm talent is there and
When able to set and throw in timing, the footwork and drive is good. However I've seen zero ability to slide, reset in the pocket, keep eyes
Downfield and work progressions - unless of course, otherwise being on the move by design.



------------------------------------

All the above and then some is from that post of mine from that date. I remember doing that breakdown. The entire half took me about 6 hours.
 
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Part 3 - our current issues unresolved.



Now you see what I mentioned about with Baker biggest issues from just over 4 years ago. They tend to be lumped into.

1) Doesn't identify zone defender(s)

2) "Overthrows 6'5 target" - a history of missing and missing high. Throws which lead to turnovers.

3) Heaters and changing velocity on this throws when he comes off his primary or is forced to reset within the pocket. - We know Baker has a history of "expecting" pressure that isn't always there and bailing out of clean pockets. Or equally as bad, watching his footwork go to hell on even the most simple throws. I can show you proof dating back to 2019 well before his injuries of this season. The New England game got particularly bad though.

4) - Vertical throws are done off heavy play action. In 2019 the coaching staff attempting to "modernize" the offense by bringing in Todd Monken and turning this passing game from incredibly calculated and controlled and into what you saw more with Buffalo, Seattle, Kansas City, LAC, and those teams with younger, big armed QB's that have mobility. They want to be able to attack defenses vertically and push the ball downfield on ANY down and distance. It's where "let russel cook" came from.

5th) - Straight drops were incredibly spotty and he'd spray the ball into zone coverages at times.




To address these points in order. B

1) Baker struggles with things beyond vanilla looks. I've noticed a trend dating back to last season. Baker LOVES locking into boundary throws, especially to his left. In 5 man, empty and 6 man protections he doesn't like throwing to his right when it's the field (far side, more space) For example: (I'm not uploading full res, please zoom in if you can)




View attachment 30875

As a result when the coaches call to attack a seam against cover 2 to the field (snap off numbers before the safety)

View attachment 30876

You get space Baker doesn't use in favor of throwing into traffic.

View attachment 30877




Now if you're saying, "hey, that's just one game". You're right, but it puts down a foundation other coaches attack. For example when HOU shifted to a cover 3 and didn't bail their corners, Baker hesitates against this type of look when he goes to the boundary for his security blanket. Most importantly, because of his inability to adjust to the zone backer getting depth and understanding how to pace this window, he puts up nonsense into a non-existent throw.


View attachment 30878


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View attachment 30880



Honestly 1 AND 2 are covered by this. Baker misses high QUITE a bit. I mentioned it here with the throw to Landry for a potential 1st down conversion. Then this last sunday to DPJ deep on a throw he had no business attempting. Oh, speaking of that Landry throw. Since I mention straight drops and diagnosing coverage isn't Baker's strong suit.



View attachment 30881



View attachment 30882


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View attachment 30884



I can show you half dozen late and bad throws a half where Bakers timing borders on disaster.

Truth is, he has YET to overcome reading coverages and anticipating windows when ball action isn't involved. Why? The threat created by Chubb makes his life easier. It makes any QB's life easier, but makes Bakers actually livable so. If the safeties and backers aren't stepping down to take away the running game, Bakers numbers have struggled.

2018 -

2018

Week 1-8

252 Dropbacks
58.3 Comp%
1,471 pass yards
6.6 YPA
765 Air yards
8 TD's
6 INT's
20 Sacks


Week 9-17

276 dropbacks
68.4 comp%
2,254 pass yards
8.6 YPA
1,185 Air yards
19 TD's
8 INT's
8 Sacks

The second column was when the coaching staff decided to go back under center. Run the ball, secure the edges with 12 and 13 personnel and let Baker work off ball action. You see the results? 2nd season wasn't all the different.

From the gun and the "modern" 2019 offense.

1-step or RPO

276 att
77.1% comp
685 passing yards
7.1 YPA
185 air yards
5 TD's
4 INT's
2 sacks

Gun straight drops

204 att
52.9% comp
1375 pass yards
6.7 YPA
809 air yards
5 TD's
6 INT's
20 sacks.

Look how badly those numbers tail off proportionately to any truly great QB?


Play action from Under center

55 att
65.5% comp
579 pass yards
10.5 YPA
329 air yards
4 TD's
0 INT
4 Sacks

straight drops under center

19 att
42.1% comp
82 pass yards
4.3 YPA
37 air yards
0 TD's
3 INT's
0 sacks

Baker REALLY falls off when he isn't under center and with ball action. Worse, his pocket mechanics are trash from within the IOL. I referenced Jared Goff for a damn good reason because of this.

We'll move on to part 4 now.








 
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BAKER Part 4 - Finality

4th) Resetting and working within the pocket.

Bakers depth of drop is REAL problem. You may wonder why, but you shouldn't NEED two pro-bowl tackles to protect a supposed franchise QB.

For example. Baker's average depth of drop at his most health game this season was between 10 & 1/2 and creeping on 12 yards.

View attachment 30890


View attachment 30891


If you ask why depth of drop is such an issue? The more your OT have to set in terms of the depth, the more space they have to be beaten with. Notice players like Oweh from the Ravens winning inside so much? When your QB is 2-3 yards deeper than the average QB, his limitations effect your protection. Baker struggles to step up and work from a tight interior. It's why the edges are actually more important than interior pocket integrity, which is damn near the opposite from every function QB in the NFL where height isn't a concern. Hell... even the QB's where height was a concern didn't struggle like that. Breesy sat around at 8 yard mark on average. Ryan Tannehill is about the same and there's talk of given Baker Tanny money (25Ish a year)



*Unfortunately I've run out of uploads but I'll be happy to link anyone my work in PM if you'd like*

There are looks the Patriots used against Baker after that first drive when they finally began attack our inside zone with plus box numbers. There was a double seam throw that was pitch and catch against a cover 3, I have the screen grab, that Baker went full retard against. Goes back to the theme of defenses playing their corners in a half squat for their cover 3 designs. I'll try to upload it after this serious of posts.



My issues with Baker are that the things I pointed out 4 years ago he has not improved on enough to be a franchise QB. He hasn't improved with rather noticeable proof as well. I know this is a handful of plays, but I promise you there is more... Much more. The straight sets? Still spraying and not anticipating a variety of looks. You know who else struggled with those? Brady and Kizer. Baker isn't as bad, but he sure as hell isn't so elite in comparison.

I understand these posts have been long winded, it was not my intent to spam. Only to highlight an incredibly small portion of the work I've done and time I put in to understand this game further and to make sure my words have the most educated opinion I can offer in an endless sea of vagueness and 92.3 type opinions.



While the whole thing isn't ON Mayfield (and it isn't) a lot of it is. He's the only player with the ball in his hands every play and defenses are using that Ken Dorsey effect. If we can beat your running game and beat your QB, we really don't have to worry about the skill players and play calls. He can't facilitate like an intelligent point guard would.


Now, as for

@Buckeneye @AKAK just stated your biggest problem is that you think you are the smartest one in the room and trust me you are not and I am talking specifically about the Browns forum


I won't claim to be the smartest person in the room and just boldly bang my chest. That would be arrogant.
I'm a humble student who LOVES high level conversation.

But, given everything I've just done and that it COULD have been a hell of a lot more to convey my football findings, I'll ask this - who would you consider the smartest one in this room? Out of pure curiousity.


 
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