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Cincinnati Reds 2018 season (It's that time of year again)

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Tanner said:
Seeing a lot of "wow surprised the Mets could get anything for Harvey"

Have these people seen the back of Mesoraco's baseball card? I assumed he, making $13+ million this season, was maybe the most untradeable player in baseball.

Completely on board with this trade.
Click to expand...

The Mets 1) were sick of Harvey, 2) have two catchers on the DL and are running scrubs out there that offensively and defensively lose them games, and 3) can't afford to punt games because they're contending. The Mets were desperate. The Reds had ALL the leverage.

So what did Walt and Dick Williams get? The privilege of paying Mes's salary to play in New York and no prospects. Only the fucking Reds.

I'm on board with the trade because it's a change-of-scenery exchange with more upside for the Reds if Harvey catches lightning in a bottle. But that doesn't change the fact the Reds are fucking morons to not get a AA warm body or a couple million thrown in.

The only reason I'm against a complete Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros level rebuild right now is this FO would somehow manage to get jack shit for Votto and still be paying Votto's salary until 2023. God damn this front office pisses me off.
 
Upvote 0
Dryden said:
Side note: As a result of batting out of order, Jay Bruce has now accomplished the most Jay Bruce-play ever:

Being credited for the third out of an inning with RISP while not even getting an AB.
Click to expand...


If Gizmo thinks he's discovered a new way to keep his OBP up he'll bat out of order every fucking night

P.S.

Welcome to the 'Nati Harvey. Whatever it was that irritated your vag in New York is about to feel like fucking child's play.

This is like being sent to the Gulag in Russia and there are only two ways out; pitch well enough to build up some trade value or quit the fucking sport.

Choose
 
Upvote 0
Jaxbuck said:
Update for games played through 5/5

"Pitching"
  • k/9 7.56, T-4th worst in MLB
  • BB/9 3.8, 7th worst in MLB
  • WHIP 1.44, 5th worst in MLB
  • HR/9 1.60, worst in MLB
  • ERA 5.18, worst in MLB
  • Runs Allowed 177, 4th worst in MLB
Pretty simple, they give up a ton of home runs and there are lots of guys on base when they do.

The best part is, it's not even hot yet. Hot weather + GABP + gopher ball pitchers = lots of souvenirs for lucky fans. Bring your gloves and sign your waivers. Some of those are coming in hot.

Team coming to plate with bats in their hands:
  • OBP .323, T9th best in MLB
  • ISO, .119, 2nd worst MLB
  • HR's 26, 3rd fewest in MLB
  • Runs scored 128, 6th worst in MLB
Same story, actually getting quite good at avoiding outs but zero power keeps them from doing any real damage when they do.

One thing I started to notice with my eyes and the stats are confirming led me to look at these guys by position. I think that actually tells a somewhat more positive story.

wRC+ by position (100 is average)
  1. 3B Suarez 173
  2. LF Schebler 127
  3. 1B Votto 126
  4. RF Winker 124
  5. 2B Gennett 99
  6. C Barnhardt 97
  7. SS Peraza 95
  8. CF Hamilton 66
Winker can play and Peraza is improving to the point where I think he may be able to as well. If they get Senzel up here to (hopefully) improve 2B then you just need to solve CF/LF combo (i.e get Hamilton the fuck out of here).

Ironical thing about Peraza is he is an excellent bunter. Makes you wonder just how dumb/incompetent Hamilton must be to see it every day, make zero adjustments and just sit there looking at the end of his career as an every day MLB player.


Team record
  • 8 wins-25 losses, T-worst in MLB
  • -49 Run Diff, T-3rd worst in MLB
  • FanGraphs is predicting 97 losses which would be 2nd worst in MLB. One game better than CWS.
  • Orioles, Royals, CWS, Reds and Marlins are clearly the group that will be fighting for #1
Last week I guessed they'd be 9-24 today, they are 8-25.

Marlins are leaving town and the May schedule is brutal.

Today: Marlins
Mon-Wed: Mets
Thur-Sat: at Dodgers

West coast road trips usually go well for these clowns. I say they find 2 wins in there somewhere, so 10-29 at the end of next Saturdays carnage.

FYI
  • The following week they play 3 games at SF and 4 games in 3 days at Chicago...they will be lucky to win a game.
  • If they do only win 2-3 games over the next 2 weeks, it will get them in the range where they'd have to play near .500 ball the rest of the year to avoid 100 losses.
  • The last 2 weeks of May have 9 games with Pirates, @ Rockies and @ Arizona.
  • May can absolutely cement a 100 loss season. The schedule is brutal and they suck something awful.
Click to expand...

Update for games played through 5/12

Holy shit. What just happened? 8 wins on the season coming into this past week and they win 5??

Let's look under the hood and see if we can figure out exactly what in the fuck is going on here.

I am officially renaming this section "hitting" instead of just "coming to plate with bats in hand". I spend a fair amount of time eviscerating these slappy bastards when they fail, might as well acknowledge when they have some modicum of success (even though we all know it won't last).

Run Creation-Hitting:
  • OBP .322, T14th best in MLB
    • K% 20.8%, 8th best in MLB
  • ISO, .132, 2nd worst MLB
    • SLG .376, 4th worst MLB
    • HR's 35, 4th fewest in MLB
  • Runs scored 163, 16th in MLB
Once again, good at avoiding outs but limited power so how do they continue to improve in scoring runs? They aren't stealing a lot of bases (20th in MLB), it doesn't appear to be unsustainable luck (BABIP .293) and most of their hits are singles so WTF? Here are the things I found they are really good at

LD% 25.1, 1st in MLB
Bunt hits 11, 1st in MLB (6 of which are from Peraza)
Swinging Strike% 8.9%, 1st in MLB
Contact %, 80.4%, 1st in MLB

They are making a ton of contact and spraying line drive singles all over the place. Jose Peraza is an elite bunter. That is all I can tell you right now.

Continuing the eye test theme, Winker is a ball player and Peraza is growing on me. Hamilton continues to suck the life out of me with his inability to get on base/learn how to bunt.
Pro Tip; watch Peraza you dumb fuck.

wRC+ by position (100 is average)
  1. 3B Suarez 144
  2. 2B Gennett 142
  3. 1B Votto 134
  4. C Barnhardt 121
  5. OF Schebler 108
  6. RF Winker 100
  7. SS Peraza 80
  8. CF Hamilton 72
Run Prevention 1-Pitching:
  • k/9 7.87, 7th worst in MLB
  • BB/9 3.69, 8th worst in MLB
  • WHIP 1.40, 9th worst in MLB
  • HR/9 1.49, worst in MLB
  • ERA 4.78, 6th worst in MLB
  • Runs Allowed 201, 6th worst in MLB
As god awful as those numbers are, they have improved in every category. Tip of the cap to trimming the team ERA under 5.


Run prevention 2-Defense:

I am just going to pick FanGraph's total defensive rating as a point of reference. You can go look at any others you choose, I am guessing they will all say about the same thing.

-7.1, 3rd worst in MLB

You see it every night, other than Hamilton in CF and Barnhart at C they are butchers at every other position (some mix of lack of range, weak arm, band hands or inability to judge fly balls).

Team record
  • 13 wins-27 losses, T-2nd worst in MLB
  • -38 Run Diff, 7th worst in MLB
  • FanGraphs is predicting 95 losses which would be 3rd worst in MLB behind Miami and CWS for overall #1 pick.
  • Orioles may well have the inside track here considering they are likely going to trade Machado at some point. Already in 1st place for losses and run diff at -77. Going to be hard to outsuck them.
My call last week was 10-29, they are now 13-27.

The week ahead:
Today @ Dodgers
Mon-Wed @ SF Giants
Thur off
Fri& Sat 3 home games with Cubs (Saturday double header)

I say they win 3 so call it 16-31 when next we meet.
 
Upvote 0
Jaxbuck said:
Update for games played through 5/12

Holy shit. What just happened? 8 wins on the season coming into this past week and they win 5??

Let's look under the hood and see if we can figure out exactly what in the fuck is going on here.

I am officially renaming this section "hitting" instead of just "coming to plate with bats in hand". I spend a fair amount of time eviscerating these slappy bastards when they fail, might as well acknowledge when they have some modicum of success (even though we all know it won't last).

Run Creation-Hitting:
  • OBP .322, T14th best in MLB
    • K% 20.8%, 8th best in MLB
  • ISO, .132, 2nd worst MLB
    • SLG .376, 4th worst MLB
    • HR's 35, 4th fewest in MLB
  • Runs scored 163, 16th in MLB
Once again, good at avoiding outs but limited power so how do they continue to improve in scoring runs? They aren't stealing a lot of bases (20th in MLB), it doesn't appear to be unsustainable luck (BABIP .293) and most of their hits are singles so WTF? Here are the things I found they are really good at

LD% 25.1, 1st in MLB
Bunt hits 11, 1st in MLB (6 of which are from Peraza)
Swinging Strike% 8.9%, 1st in MLB
Contact %, 80.4%, 1st in MLB

They are making a ton of contact and spraying line drive singles all over the place. Jose Peraza is an elite bunter. That is all I can tell you right now.

Continuing the eye test theme, Winker is a ball player and Peraza is growing on me. Hamilton continues to suck the life out of me with his inability to get on base/learn how to bunt.
Pro Tip; watch Peraza you dumb fuck.

wRC+ by position (100 is average)
  1. 3B Suarez 144
  2. 2B Gennett 142
  3. 1B Votto 134
  4. C Barnhardt 121
  5. OF Schebler 108
  6. RF Winker 100
  7. SS Peraza 80
  8. CF Hamilton 72
Run Prevention 1-Pitching:
  • k/9 7.87, 7th worst in MLB
  • BB/9 3.69, 8th worst in MLB
  • WHIP 1.40, 9th worst in MLB
  • HR/9 1.49, worst in MLB
  • ERA 4.78, 6th worst in MLB
  • Runs Allowed 201, 6th worst in MLB
As god awful as those numbers are, they have improved in every category. Tip of the cap to trimming the team ERA under 5.


Run prevention 2-Defense:

I am just going to pick FanGraph's total defensive rating as a point of reference. You can go look at any others you choose, I am guessing they will all say about the same thing.

-7.1, 3rd worst in MLB

You see it every night, other than Hamilton in CF and Barnhart at C they are butchers at every other position (some mix of lack of range, weak arm, band hands or inability to judge fly balls).

Team record
  • 13 wins-27 losses, T-2nd worst in MLB
  • -38 Run Diff, 7th worst in MLB
  • FanGraphs is predicting 95 losses which would be 3rd worst in MLB behind Miami and CWS for overall #1 pick.
  • Orioles may well have the inside track here considering they are likely going to trade Machado at some point. Already in 1st place for losses and run diff at -77. Going to be hard to outsuck them.
My call last week was 10-29, they are now 13-27.

The week ahead:
Today @ Dodgers
Mon-Wed @ SF Giants
Thur off
Fri& Sat 3 home games with Cubs (Saturday double header)

I say they win 3 so call it 16-31 when next we meet.
Click to expand...

Hey, they only need 2 more wins to reach your prediction for the week! That's a good start.
 
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brodybuck21 said:
4 game sweep at LA for the 1st time since 1976....wow
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LA is in a bad spot right now - their rotation is a mess, Kershaw is hurt, no one is hitting and the Diamondbacks might have the horses to run away and hide in the division - well unless you believe in Colorado.

The Reds have enough hitting ability to probably avoid losing 100 games this year.
 
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