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Cincinnati Reds 2018 season (It's that time of year again)

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He fucking K's looking

200w%2020.gif
 
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Jaxbuck said:
Update for games played through 4/28

"Pitching"
  • k/9 7.65, 4th worst in MLB
  • BB/9 4.13, 6th worst in MLB
  • WHIP 1.50, 2nd worst in MLB
  • HR/9 1.63, worst in MLB
  • ERA 5.42, worst in MLB
  • Runs Allowed 152, worst in MLB
Low k/9 tells you they don't have any "stuff", high walk rate tells you they don't have any command, high HR/9 tells you their weak shit gets splattered often and (because of all the walks) there are lots of runs scored against,

Stuff-less, command-less and hard hit is no way to go through life son.


Team coming to plate with bats in their hands:
  • OBP .319, 14th in MLB
  • ISO, .117, 2nd worst MLB
  • HR's 21, 3rd fewest in MLB
  • Runs scored 104, 7th worst in MLB
    • 4 outlier games of 10, 10, 9 and 15 this year
    • 44 runs in those 4 games are 42% of their total for the season
    • 60 runs scored in the other 23 games = 2.6 RPG
They scored 34 runs in 3 games this week so the numbers are skewed (and still bad). Just no power at all, although they are doing a decent job of avoiding outs.

Team record
  • 6 wins-21 losses, worst in MLB
  • -48 Run Diff, 4th worst in MLB
  • FanGraphs is predicting 97 losses, tied for 2nd worst record with CWS and 1 worse than the Marlins
  • Royals and Orioles are announcing their presence with authority in the race for #1 as well. Both currently have a worse runs diff than the Reds.
Last week I guessed they'd be 7-20 today, they are 6-21 but I messed up and thought the Marlins series was this week.

May schedule (above) is brutal and they are playing .222 ball going into it. I can't even imagine how bad it could get so I'll just keep going a week at a time:

Today @ Twins
Mon-Wed: Brewers
Fris-Sat: Marlins

Brewcrew is cooling off and the Marlins are on par with the Reds. Fuck it, I say they go crazy and end up 3-3 over the next 6. That would mean 9-24 this time next week.

Lets see

#121
Click to expand...

Update for games played through 5/5

"Pitching"
  • k/9 7.56, T-4th worst in MLB
  • BB/9 3.8, 7th worst in MLB
  • WHIP 1.44, 5th worst in MLB
  • HR/9 1.60, worst in MLB
  • ERA 5.18, worst in MLB
  • Runs Allowed 177, 4th worst in MLB
Pretty simple, they give up a ton of home runs and there are lots of guys on base when they do.

The best part is, it's not even hot yet. Hot weather + GABP + gopher ball pitchers = lots of souvenirs for lucky fans. Bring your gloves and sign your waivers. Some of those are coming in hot.

Team coming to plate with bats in their hands:
  • OBP .323, T9th best in MLB
  • ISO, .119, 2nd worst MLB
  • HR's 26, 3rd fewest in MLB
  • Runs scored 128, 6th worst in MLB
Same story, actually getting quite good at avoiding outs but zero power keeps them from doing any real damage when they do.

One thing I started to notice with my eyes and the stats are confirming led me to look at these guys by position. I think that actually tells a somewhat more positive story.

wRC+ by position (100 is average)
  1. 3B Suarez 173
  2. LF Schebler 127
  3. 1B Votto 126
  4. RF Winker 124
  5. 2B Gennett 99
  6. C Barnhardt 97
  7. SS Peraza 95
  8. CF Hamilton 66
Winker can play and Peraza is improving to the point where I think he may be able to as well. If they get Senzel up here to (hopefully) improve 2B then you just need to solve CF/LF combo (i.e get Hamilton the fuck out of here).

Ironical thing about Peraza is he is an excellent bunter. Makes you wonder just how dumb/incompetent Hamilton must be to see it every day, make zero adjustments and just sit there looking at the end of his career as an every day MLB player.


Team record
  • 8 wins-25 losses, T-worst in MLB
  • -49 Run Diff, T-3rd worst in MLB
  • FanGraphs is predicting 97 losses which would be 2nd worst in MLB. One game better than CWS.
  • Orioles, Royals, CWS, Reds and Marlins are clearly the group that will be fighting for #1
Last week I guessed they'd be 9-24 today, they are 8-25.

Marlins are leaving town and the May schedule is brutal.

Today: Marlins
Mon-Wed: Mets
Thur-Sat: at Dodgers

West coast road trips usually go well for these clowns. I say they find 2 wins in there somewhere, so 10-29 at the end of next Saturdays carnage.

FYI
  • The following week they play 3 games at SF and 4 games in 3 days at Chicago...they will be lucky to win a game.
  • If they do only win 2-3 games over the next 2 weeks, it will get them in the range where they'd have to play near .500 ball the rest of the year to avoid 100 losses.
  • The last 2 weeks of May have 9 games with Pirates, @ Rockies and @ Arizona.
  • May can absolutely cement a 100 loss season. The schedule is brutal and they suck something awful.
 
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Lineups don't usually bother me with this heaping mass of waste but today is telling of just how fucking dumb this organization is from top to bottom:

  1. Peraza (R)
  2. Winker (L)
  3. Votto (L)
  4. Gennett (L)
  5. Suarez (R)
  6. Schebler (L)
  7. Barnhart (S)
  8. pitcher
  9. out/Hamilton (s)
Now, here in the real world Winker has shown himself to have serious OBP skills (.413), while Peraza has demonstrated that he is an excellent bunter but is somewhat challenged still by not making outs (.319). Additionally, Votto is clearly your best hitter but Suarez is just as clearly your second best threat. Why split them up to have two lefties in a row? I thought that was a rule for membership in the dumbfuck, old school manager union?

My lineup for the Reds current roster:
  1. Winker (L)
  2. Peraza (R)
  3. Votto (L)
  4. Suarez (R)
  5. Schebler (L)
  6. Barnhart (S)
  7. Scooter (L)
  8. pitcher
  9. Hamilton because I have to let him go up to the plate by the rules of the game.
It gets flat fucking ugly after #4 but that is a legit MLB 1-4 if they'd do it.
 
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