C Byron 'B.J.' Mullens (Levanga Hokkaido Sapporo - Japan)

[Meyer]

If he blows up next year, he's a number one pick. And I think he could. He needs coaching, he needs to be the focus of the coaches attention day in and day out. If he wants to get there, he has all the talent in the world to do it. And if he came back and became the player that he could potentially be, this could be Ohio State's best chance at a championship since Matta has been here. He can also develop exponentially over the next year in terms of maturity as a person and UNDERSTANDING of the game. He can learn to play hard at all times. He can get the focused coaching attention on him every single day that will make him into the player that we all know he can become.

I also know that being an undeveloped, raw big man is hit or miss in the NBA. Guys like Blatche, Swift, Diop, Kwame, Curry, Chandler, Bender, are numbered far greater than the Al Jefferson, Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bynum, and Dwight Howard's of the world. From the same draft as Kwame, Chandler, Diop, and Curry came guys who went to college and developed like Dalembert, and Zach Randolph who are both better than any of that foursome.

The thing is, if you aren't already fairly developed like Amare, Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, and Bynum were, you'll struggle to become great in the NBA like the failures I mentioned above. BJ isn't close to being the player those guys were (Bynum, Howard etc.). With an explosion next year, and then NBA coaching he can quickly become the kind of player those guys are. It worked for Shaq, Duncan, Elton Brand, Al Horford, Lamarcus Aldridge and I'll even throw Carmelo in there just for arguments sake. Now, most recently it's worked out for Blake Griffin. Griffin has turned himself into a lock to be the number one pick this year after a second year at Oklahoma and he's got a chance at a National Title. Whatever. Point is, when you get to the NBA you better be ready to play soon or your opportunity to be be great and therefore your opportunity for more money may pass you by.

BJ can be great, and another year here would help him exponentially as I mentioned above. I hope to see him back and making Ohio State a strong National Title contender because don't forget winning also does wonders in the eyes of the public and the scouts. I mean look at Noah if you need any justification for that.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

I was sort of a know-it-all at 18/19, but I'd like to think that even back then if someone would've sat my dumb ass down and showed me the numbers that I'd have listened.

are you listening?

whatever the choice i hope it works out for the best. i hope he sits down with those he trusts and those people give him valueable feedback and he makes the choice that is best for him.

 

[jwinslow]

I also know that being an undeveloped, raw big man is hit or miss in the NBA. Guys like Blatche, Swift, Diop, Kwame, Curry, Chandler, Bender, are numbered far greater than the Al Jefferson, Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bynum, and Dwight Howard's of the world. From the same draft as Kwame, Chandler, Diop, and Curry came guys who went to college and developed like Dalembert, and Zach Randolph who are both better than any of that foursome.

Those misses are still pretty wealthy:

Total salaries:
$43.8 mil - Chandler
$42.1 mil - Kwame (6 yrs)
$37.0 mil - Curry
$29.7 mil - Bender
$14.7 mil - Diop
$ 7.9 mil - Swift (4 yrs)
$ 3.5 mil - Blatche (3 yrs)

A lot of mediocre big men earn serious money in the league.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

Actually, he'd have virtually identical earnings in that scenario, and would make his family wait another year to get help.

09 contract | '10 | '11 . | Total

---- 0 ------ | 1.9 | 2.18 | 3.75 mill - staying another year, and becoming a top-10 pick
---- 1.09 -- | 1.8 | 1.26 | 3.54 mill - going pro now, drafted #20 overall

He's also 1 year closer to his second contract, which is the money maker in bball.

Maybe my math is wrong, but the last time I checked $5,827,800 is $2,283,300 more than $3,544,500. You first salary line is leaving out the $5.83 mil total for the 2010 top-10 pick contract:

DRAFT YEAR | Pick# | 2009/2010 | 2010/2011 | 2011/2012 | 2012/2013 | .. TOTAL
2010-2011 ... #10 ...... 0 ..... 1,807,100 . 1,942,600 . 2,078,100 .. 5,827,800
2009-2010 ... #20 .. 1,099,100 . 1,181,500 . 1,263,900 .... ?? ...... 3,544,500

Unless his fourth year salary under his 2009 contract jumped up to $2.83 mil, he's losing money leaving early. And, with a solid sophomore season where he actually displays the postential everyone thinks he has, he could be way higher than a top-10 pick. If were indeed to become the #1 pick, that's over $13 mil...

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

are you listening?

whatever the choice i hope it works out for the best. i hope he sits down with those he trusts and those people give him valueable feedback and he makes the choice that is best for him.

Yeah, I am. The best choice for him, unless his family is starving and on the verge of being kicked out to the street, is for him to come back for his sophomore year and drastically increasing his NBA worth...

 

[jimotis4heisman]

Maybe my math is wrong, but the last time I checked $5,827,800 is $2,283,300 more than $3,544,500. You first salary line is leaving out the $5.83 mil total for the 2010 top-10 pick contract:

DRAFT YEAR | Pick# | 2009/2010 | 2010/2011 | 2011/2012 | 2012/2013 | .. TOTAL
2010-2011 ... #10 ...... 0 ..... 1,807,100 . 1,942,600 . 2,078,100 .. 5,827,800
2009-2010 ... #20 .. 1,099,100 . 1,181,500 . 1,263,900 .... ?? ...... 3,544,500

Unless his fourth year salary under his 2009 contract jumped up to $2.83 mil, he's losing money leaving early. And, with a solid sophomore season where he actually displays the postential everyone thinks he has, he could be way higher than a top-10 pick. If were indeed to become the #1 pick, that's over $13 mil...

under the assumption he is automatically a top 10 player.

 

[Mike80]

Something we must consider is those out there in the media/world who are trumpeting the end of the NBA has a major sport with their next lockout in 2011-12. If presented the wrong way to the kid (i.e. someone who doesn't have his best interests at heart but would be in a position to be a hanger-on), it could be shown to BJ that now is the time to get paid because it won't always be there....

That said, I think he should stay. Another year in school is another year of maturity both physically and mentally.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

under the assumption he is automatically a top 10 player.

Well, if he's a #20 pick now after his less-than-stellar season (and NBA teams taking a flyer on him solely on potential), it seems pretty safe that if he had a solid sophomore season, turning that potential into reality, his being a top-10 would be more than a given.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I just went back to that site and looked at the rookie salaries for 2010/2011 and updated my previous post:

DRAFT YEAR | Pick# | 2009/2010 | 2010/2011 | 2011/2012 | 2012/2013 | .. TOTAL
2010-2011 ... #10 ...... 0 ..... 1,865,300 . 2,005,200 . 2,145,100 .. 6,015,600
2009-2010 ... #20 .. 1,099,100 . 1,181,500 . 1,263,900 .... ?? ...... 3,544,500

That's $2,471,100 more, not $2,283,300 more...that's an extra $187,800 which is three or four reaaallllly nice cars.

 

[Fungo Squiggly]

under the assumption he is automatically a top 10 player.

Agreed. If he has an inconsistent and under-whelming sophomore season to follow-up this season's performance, perhaps a team begins to see a guy who isn't able to tap into all the potential.

 

[MaxBuck]

I guess that I am sort of tired of hearing about how bad the family financial situation currently is.

Who gives a [censored] whether you are tired of hearing about it? It's none of your business whether Mullens decides to go pro -- it's up to the young man and his family.

I get really [censored]ed off when people act as though they have some sort of vested interest in a young athlete's decision. Especially when they imply that deferring millions of dollars in income is somehow validated by their own desires. Phooey.

 

[jwinslow]

Well, if he's a #20 pick now after his less-than-stellar season (and NBA teams taking a flyer on him solely on potential), it seems pretty safe that if he had a solid sophomore season, turning that potential into reality, his being a top-10 would be more than a given.

That's not a safe assumption at all. Roy Hibbert was thought to be a top-10 pick in 07, and returned to be a top-5 pick. He went 17th in 08.

Maybe my math is wrong, but the last time I checked $5,827,800 is $2,283,300 more than $3,544,500. You first salary line is leaving out the $5.83 mil total for the 2010 top-10 pick contract:

DRAFT YEAR | Pick# | 2009/2010 | 2010/2011 | 2011/2012 | 2012/2013 | .. TOTAL
2010-2011 ... #10 ...... 0 ..... 1,807,100 . 1,942,600 . 2,078,100 .. 5,827,800
2009-2010 ... #20 .. 1,099,100 . 1,181,500 . 1,263,900 .... ?? ...... 3,544,500

Unless his fourth year salary under his 2009 contract jumped up to $2.83 mil, he's losing money leaving early. And, with a solid sophomore season where he actually displays the postential everyone thinks he has, he could be way higher than a top-10 pick. If were indeed to become the #1 pick, that's over $13 mil...

Your math assumes Mullens makes nothing in 2013/14, and I don't really understand why. There are a lot of lousy centers making millions. Someone else will give him a chance even if he struggles during his first three years.

I'd suggest that Mullens making a few million in 2013/14 is more probable than him becoming a top-10 pick for the 2010 draft (assuming he were to return).

The difference in money is largely nullified by that 12 month head start on cashing paychecks. The question is whether that extra year in college would earn him a better second contract, where the real money lies.

 

[ScriptOhio]

I must say, I think the chances of a basketball player getting a career ending injury is quite remote. Actually, beyond remote. It's remote in football... it's some level of even more so for a basketball player.

Remote yes, but it can happen; just ask Jay Burson. :(

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

That's not a safe assumption at all. Roy Hibbert was thought to be a top-10 pick in 07, and returned to be a top-5 pick. He went 17th in 08.

Was Hibbert the top player coming out of high school? How often do big-time bball players who come back for an additional year loss ground in the draft? Mullens has a nearly-unlimited ceiling...he just needs to prove to can reach it. If he plays the way he's thought to be capable of, he'll be a top-5 pick at the worst.

Your math assumes Mullens makes nothing in 2013/14, and I don't really understand why. There are a lot of lousy centers making millions. Someone else will give him a chance even if he struggles during his first three years.

No, it does not assume he makes nothing in 2013/2014 under either contract....I just went out four years from this year, which covers both 3-year contract examples (note that I have "??" for 2012/2013 for the '09 contract).

Bottom line is that if he does come back for his sophomore year and has a much better season than this past one, his draft stock will rise enough to the point where it will far more than offset any "loss of income" resulting from his not declaring for the '09 draft. As in most decisions, it's all about "risk and reward". He needs to decide whether the "risk" of not declaring (and thus passing up a good chunk of coin three months from now) is worth the reward of getting a lot more coin by waiting an extra year.

 

[jwinslow]

Was Hibbert the top player coming out of high school?

Why does that matter? Hibbert was considerably higher rated when he chose to return, and it cost him.

How often do big-time bball players who come back for an additional year loss ground in the draft?

Glen Davis was another. Austin Daye, Chase Budinger were a few that have seen their stocks freefall in college.

No, it does not assume he makes nothing in 2013/2014 under either contract....I just went out four years from this year, which covers both 3-year contract examples (note that I have "??" for 2012/2013 for the '09 contract).

It does assume that, since you're comparing the two 4 year spans with 0 dollars in 12/13 counting towards the 'leave now' line. I understand the contract is unknown, but that makes a 4 year comparison fairly impossible, which is why I compared the first 3 years. I think Mullens has a very good chance of earning about 1.5-2+ million in that 4th year, to make the difference in earnings negligible.

I think coming back to school would help him out long-term in the NBA, but I don't see 3-4 years being remotely possible (as most close to BJ have said he's gone for awhile now), so that's something of a moot point.

Bottom line is that if he does come back for his sophomore year and has a much better season than this past one, his draft stock will rise enough to the point where it will far more than offset any "loss of income" resulting from his not declaring for the '09 draft.

Did we see Mullens improve that much over the course of the season? Why do you feel it is such a safe bet that he plays his way into the top-10?

At this time last year, some thought Mullens could be a top-5 or even #1 pick. His stock plummeted during his first year at OSU. I'm not sure it's safe to assume he'll reverse that trend.