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BUCKEYES : NC OR BUST ?

I think most in all likelihood feel this way but for the reason jwins mentioned, I think one loss could happen early on. Everyone is overlooking Northwestern...they are returning some real talent and we are away at night early in the season...could spell a loss.

As for us: I will give a full report later on in the summer but I feel where we could see the biggest drop-off is our front 4...Simon, Hank, Goebel, and Williams will not be easily replaced. I think we will be very good on the edges but Hank/Goebel really got the job done inside...Bennett can be a star but is always hurt and Hale is far from proven. Schutt will have to be a full time player for us now but has the talent. Any of Bosa/Price/Hill could come in and have an impact right away. I think this defense can still be very good but our DL just can't be a huge dropoff from last year...there will be some dropoff, it just can't be drastic.

Shazier is a stud and someone will step up (my guess is Perry, maybe Grant) and we will usually only have 2 LBs on the field at once anyways. Our secondary will be strength for us on defense and will only be better by adding Bell and with Powell's emergence.

On offense, I think we are going to be off the charts honestly. I think the talent is there but above all, the system is in year two and will really resonate with our guys. I think D. Smith will become more consistent and Philly will build off his breakout year. Thomas is ready to go now at WR and our TEs have rave reviews from UFM. Fields had a phenomenal spring and Spencer is serviceable. We already know Hyde is a stud and Rod was starting to breakout, but then Ball and Dunn looked great this spring as well. The returning 4 are the best unit as a whole imo (I don't say that lightly) and Decker was THIS close to starting over Fragel...I think this whole "competition" at RT is simply UFM trying to maximize Decker's talents...our OL is going to be the strength of this entire team and Decker has a few games to get settled in before any real competition. Braxton has noticeably improved his mechanics and looked sharp in the spring game. All this being said, I think Wilson and Marshall are going to provide a spark in the open field that makes this offense truly potent...I wouldn't rule out Corey Smith turning heads either.

Now of course I always have some glowing post like this at the beginning of the year. But I am realistic and I know there will be adversity and the leadership will need to step it up...and that is the huge question mark. In sum, anything worse than a Big Ten title and a win over scUM would be a bust. However, if we achieved that with one loss along the way, I would not be disappointed, even with our patsy schedule. Of course a NC is always the goal but I would find no way that a BCS bowl appearance and an 11 win season would disappoint me at the end of the year.
 
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I'm going into 2013 hoping for 12+ wins. I know that with the schedule and the returning players it seems like a great chance for a title, and to some degree it is, but like some others have mentioned, this team still has a ton of work to do in multiple areas.

Also, it's not even the prospect of going undefeated in 2013, but having to go undefeated in back to back years. That would be a 26 game winning streak if they would win the NC this year. Very possible, but incredibly hard to do, especially with some of the questions that still remain. If Hankins had stayed or there was more certainty at LB, I would be more willing to put all my eggs in the NC basket.

I honestly think that OSU's chances this year depend a lot upon the development of the DL. Don't get me wrong, Miller will probably be the MVP of this team and a lot is on his shoulders, but in the end to beat a great team in the title game, they're going to have to have a defense that can make key stops, and that starts with the DL. They are going to struggle as a unit early on, but if they can develop into a disruptive unit that helps a struggling LB corps along, it would be a huge step towards going undefeated.
 
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BIATCHabutuka;2344999; said:
as a gambler myself, i like your numbers / odds for the most part. i don't sports gamble just poker, but those seem reasonable (maybe i would bump our odds against NW and IU and michigan and in the conf championship game 5% or so if anything).

so using your very reasonable numbers we have a 14.5% or basically 1 in 7 chance of making the NC game.
QUOTE]
By bumping the ones you mentioned up 5% each our odds move up to 8.5% If you take into account the possibility of making it despite one loss that would improve the odds significantly but I am not gonna work out that math.
 
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I am not raising my expectations beyond winning the big 10 until I see a more typical silver bullet defense. We have the talent and coaching so I'm not sure what's missing (buy-in or full grasp of the system, mebbe?). Go Bucks.
 
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Tough question, but I vote BUST.

I'm a motorbaotin' sonofabitch.

vince-vaughn-motorboat-o.gif
 
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Not going to count my chickens, but the schedule sets up nicely. Also would not say it's NC or bust. Winning conference championship and BCS bowl is usually a good thing. Too much to ask to put all the eggs in one very small basket.
 
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I simply can't find a loss in those first 11 games. Not if our O is remotely what it should be.

What troubles me is the likelihood of a UM rematch situation. It is very difficult to beat a team twice, let along in back to back games.

If you look historically at the results of rematches between ranked teams it almost completely undermines what it means to "prove it on the field".
 
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Our only instance of two straight undefeated season came in 1916-1917, going 15-0-1. Since we can't have ties now, we'd have to go 26-0 over two seasons (last and this) to win the national title, which also would be a 26-game win streak (our current all-time longest is 22 games, IIRC). We've had only six undefeated and untied seasons ever. In other words, this would be Ohio State history of epic proportions. So saying it would be a bust if it didn't happen is a bit hyperbolic...
 
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