BUCKEYES : NC OR BUST ?

[oldmanbuckeye]

How can you improve upon perfection? That's the question Meyer and the Buckeyes will have to answer this season .... OSU fans have huge expectations of the Buckeyes for the upcoming season ... will they be disappointed .. or will there be dancing in the streets on January 6th .. I think the Buckeyes will hoist the crystal ball ..the Buckeyes will have more talent and an easier schedule than they did last season ....I know the Buckeyes will have to replace most of their front seven on defense... but Meyer has done a great job of recruiting defensive linemen .... .... the Buckeyes dont play Nebraska or Michigan State .. and they get Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State at home...... the Buckeyes will probably face a SEC opponent in the National Championship, but Meyer knows the SEC teams very well and has already proven he can beat them ... so, tighten your seatbelts and grab the " oh, hell " handles , because this season is going to be a wild fun ride ...

 

[BIATCHabutuka]

this is an NC type of team and schedule.

we should be a heavy favorite in every game we play this season going into our bowl game.

the SEC had better hope they have an undefeated team this year or they may be in for some poll drama.

when we go undefeated, we lock in our NC game slot. if the top SEC team has a loss and there is another major conference undefeated team, it could get interesting.

just like last season, i think Bama may have been locked out of the NC game with OSU and ND undefeated.

bad way for the SEC streak to end for them, but that is a possibility. the SEC champ still needs to go undefeated unless one of the teams they are trying to hop over is Boise or the like.

 

[oldmanbuckeye]

this is an NC type of team and schedule.

we should be a heavy favorite in every game we play this season going into our bowl game.

the SEC had better hope they have an undefeated team this year or they may be in for some poll drama.

when we go undefeated, we lock in our NC game slot. if the top SEC team has a loss and there is another major conference undefeated team, it could get interesting.

just like last season, i think Bama may have been locked out of the NC game with OSU and ND undefeated.

bad way for the SEC streak to end for them, but that is a possibility. the SEC champ still needs to go undefeated unless one of the teams they are trying to hop over is Boise or the like.

personally I would like to see the Buckeyes meet and beat a SEC team in the NC game ... since we had to forfeit the Arkansas win ... even though, right after the win and before the forfeit, SEC folks were saying that game didn't really count because Arkansas wasn't a " true " SEC team ...

 

[Onebuckfan]

NC or Bust...I have heard that before..73,74,75, when I was in school and many years since.If you won't be able to enjoy anything about this season without that NC please be prepared for disappointment. I will enjoy each game in itself from Buffalo to Michigan. If it ends in a NC I will be ecstatic but I can have an enjoyable season without one.

 

[HorseshoeFetish]

personally I would like to see the Buckeyes meet and beat a SEC team in the NC game ... since we had to forfeit the Arkansas win ... even though, right after the win and before the forfeit, SEC folks were saying that game didn't really count because Arkansas wasn't a " true " SEC team ...

Much like ancient scUM history I don't give a fuck about the SEC. Maybe it's just how I perceive things but in one thread you seem to defend scUM and their glory years, and in another you seem to imply that we need to beat a "true" SEC team to validate a NC.

The truth is that if we are going to win a NC we need to only worry about 1 team at the moment, Buffalo. Granted they are no Georgia State, or a Chattanooga for that matter, but that's what the schedule says. Win one game at a time and don't stop winning no matter what team is put in front of you. Then and only then will you be a NC.

Don't get me wrong here, I understand what you are saying. It's just that if you think beating ND, USC, Texas, OU, or FSU and the likes for a NC are going to leave me feeling empty inside because it wasn't Bama or LSU then you're a dreaming.

 

[gmen6981]

I'm with OneBuck.
This team definitely has a boatload of talent,but also alot of questions.
If the new guys can step up immediately and play to their potential,then this has the makings of a special season. My personal expectations are for a very good team this year, jelling together for a season, and a monster destroying everything in it's path on the way to the first of it's titles in "14"
But that was my outlook in 2002, so what the hell do I know?
All I can say is........GO BUCKS!

 

[jwinslow]

They were brutal at LB last year and now are replacing all four bigs in front of them. Their best option at MLB could be a true frosh.

They still don't have any true pivots on campus. I am not sold on Hall being the answer. Again the best option is probably a true frosh.

They still lack consistency at WR. Will Devin Smith start catching the football? Will we turn to first year players like smith or Clark to spark the offense?

The quarterback is a phenomenal talent but still learning to manage the pocket and be a true dual threat qb.

They need to prove that they won't miss the strong efforts of the departed fragel.


The schedule is soft, so maybe it is NC berth or bust, but this team has far too many warts to declare anything short of a title as a failure.

 

[oldmanbuckeye]

Much like ancient scUM history I don't give a [censored] about the SEC. Maybe it's just how I perceive things but in one thread you seem to defend scUM and their glory years, and in another you seem to imply that we need to beat a "true" SEC team to validate a NC.

The truth is that if we are going to win a NC we need to only worry about 1 team at the moment, Buffalo. Granted they are no Georgia State, or a Chattanooga for that matter, but that's what the schedule says. Win one game at a time and don't stop winning no matter what team is put in front of you. Then and only then will you be a NC.

Don't get me wrong here, I understand what you are saying. It's just that if you think beating ND, USC, Texas, OU, or FSU and the likes for a NC are going to leave me feeling empty inside because it wasn't Bama or LSU then you're a dreaming.

no, I am not defending scum ... I cant stand them .. I hope they never win another game .. I just believe, when you look at a program's history, you need to consider it in it'e entirety ...

And like you, I don't believe we need to beat a SEC team to validate a national championship ... but beating a SE team would sure shut them up ... and we wouldn't have to listen to S - E - C .... S - E - C ....S - E - C ....

 

[Steve19]

For the reasons that Jwins makes explicit, I am approaching this season with the thought that the possibility is there but that the Buckeyes will need several players to lift their game as well as a lot of luck.

I'll be much clearer when I see how much Ohio State's QB has lifted his passing ability. If he's made considerable progress, that could hide a lot of sins.

So, success doesn't mean a NC to me, but I do think that one is possible with this team and schedule.

 

[Yertle]

How can you improve upon perfection? That's the question Meyer and the Buckeyes will have to answer this season .... OSU fans have huge expectations of the Buckeyes for the upcoming season ... will they be disappointed .. or will there be dancing in the streets on January 6th .. I think the Buckeyes will hoist the crystal ball ..the Buckeyes will have more talent and an easier schedule than they did last season ....I know the Buckeyes will have to replace most of their front seven on defense... but Meyer has done a great job of recruiting defensive linemen .... .... the Buckeyes dont play Nebraska or Michigan State .. and they get Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State at home...... the Buckeyes will probably face a SEC opponent in the National Championship, but Meyer knows the SEC teams very well and has already proven he can beat them ... so, tighten your seatbelts and grab the " oh, hell " handles , because this season is going to be a wild fun ride ...

1. You must wear out your "." button very quickly.
2. I don't think it's ever fair to say a season is a NC or bust. That's setting expectations at an unhealthy level, in my opinion. It's the type of thing that was the beginning of the end for Meyer at Florida when his 2007 team had expectations that were way too high.
3. I do love your enthusiam and agree that this will be a fun season to watch. But, if the Bucks end up stumbling (a la MSU in 1998), I'm not going to throw in the towel and just wait for next year.
4. Agree 100% with wanting to take down an SEC team in the NCG. Specifically Bama. If the SEC gets squeezed out of the NCG as VG suggests, the talking heads will have a field day with the debates during the entire off season. Ideally, the Bucks will shut the door on ANY debate with an undefeated season AND a win over Bama in the NCG. But, I'll have fun no matter what happens.

 

[Yertle]

Put it into perspective just how difficult an undefeated season really is. Let's say Ohio State has a 90% chance of winning each individual game on their entire 2013 schedule (basically they would win 9 times if they played 10 games). In a 13 game season, the odds of winning every game would be 25.4%. Granted, some teams are more like a 95%-99% chance, but some are more like 60%-70%. The bottom line is even as a huge favorite in every game, the odds are stacked against them. This makes the 2012 season that much more special in my mind.

I know, I know, games aren't played in a statistics book, they're played on a field (tell a major league manager that!). But, the basic thought process still applies. The chances of going through a schedule without a stumble is very tough, even as a heavy favorite.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Win The Game or bust.

Same as every other year that has passed or ever will pass.

Fuck M*ch*gan.

 

[BuckeyeSoldier]

Here is my very scientific guess about our chances of winning the whole shabang this year. We have a 6.5543% chance of winning out and taking the title.

how i figured that out:
Buffalo = 99%
SDSU = 95%
@Cal = 85%
Fl A&M = 99%
Wiscy = 85% (lower if not for new coach)
@NW = 80%
Iowa = 95%
PSU = 90% (sanctions should start hitting them harder now I believe)
@PU = 85% (giving new coach credit for making this a hard game on the road)
@ILL = 95%
Ind = 80% (very impressed with their trajectory)
@scUM = 70% (I expect Urban to dominate Hoke but this is still the Game)
BIG = 70%
Title = 45% (assuming we get a team of similar talent and likely on "road")
total is 6.5543%

 

[BIATCHabutuka]

as a gambler myself, i like your numbers / odds for the most part. i don't sports gamble just poker, but those seem reasonable (maybe i would bump our odds against NW and IU and michigan and in the conf championship game 5% or so if anything).

so using your very reasonable numbers we have a 14.5% or basically 1 in 7 chance of making the NC game.

say it costs $3000 for flight, hotel, beer, tickets, rental car, food, and more beer to attend the championship game per person.

using that cost and 7:1 odds you would need to bet around $430 to win a trip to go to the NC game with the bucks. i think i would place that bet honestly.


on topic but off, i have always been fascinated with a happiness hedge. maybe it is a product of attending OSU during the Cooper era, but I always kind of wanted to bet a large amount on michigan beating OSU so that i could drink enough for the next year to not remember the game if we lost or just lose some cash and enjoy the win. i know if i tried this though the spread would fuck me, probably why i don't sports gamble other than an occasional parlay sheet (a true suckers bet).

 

[Jaxbuck]

as a gambler myself, i like your numbers / odds for the most part. i don't sports gamble just poker, but those seem reasonable (maybe i would bump our odds against NW and IU and michigan and in the conf championship game 5% or so if anything).

so using your very reasonable numbers we have a 14.5% or basically 1 in 7 chance of making the NC game.

say it costs $3000 for flight, hotel, beer, tickets, rental car, food, and more beer to attend the championship game per person.

using that cost and 7:1 odds you would need to bet around $430 to win a trip to go to the NC game with the bucks. i think i would place that bet honestly.


on topic but off, i have always been fascinated with a happiness hedge. maybe it is a product of attending OSU during the Cooper era, but I always kind of wanted to bet a large amount on michigan beating OSU so that i could drink enough for the next year to not remember the game if we lost or just lose some cash and enjoy the win. i know if i tried this though the spread would fuck me, probably why i don't sports gamble other than an occasional parlay sheet (a true suckers bet).

I employ the "happiness hedge", my term is emotional arbitrage, on a regular basis. Most recently I put down a larger than normal cash bet and all my Vcash (I was Vfilthy rich from the old Terrel Pryor bet) on a certain piss and blew colored basketball team to beat Louisville. Losing it was worth every goddamn penny.

Not only are you taking some of the sting out of a potential loss, I think you are also jinxing the living fuck out of the opponent (I know I am). So it's doubly worth it to me to flush a little cash in return for, most often, a scUM loss and the feeling I had a little something to do with it.