Buckeyetology: Ohio State On the Bubble After Back-to-Back Big Ten Wins
Ohio State hoops has held serve in January on its quest for the program's first NCAA Tournament berth in four years. No more, no less.
The Buckeyes didn't overachieve by sweeping their West Coast road trip, but did defeat Oregon before falling to Washington in the pair of road games. They had chances to upset No. 7 Nebraska in a 72-69 loss, but handled business at Rutgers and during their two-game homestand vs. UCLA and Minnesota.
Securing those last two wins was especially key after Ohio State lost to Washington, given that the Buckeyes now travel to Ann Arbor to face rival No. 3 Michigan as heavy underdogs on Friday. There are three winnable games to follow that contest, though two are on the road: Penn State, at Wisconsin and at Maryland. It will be an important sequence before a brutal back end of the schedule for the Buckeyes.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
Ohio State is firmly defined as a bubble team by the experts and projectors, leaning more toward the inside after a 13-5 start to its 2025-26 season. "Consistent" might not be a word many use to describe this Buckeye team, or many college basketball teams in a sport of high variance, but it's one of the biggest things going for OSU on its résumé.
The worst loss of Ohio State's season came in Quadrant 2 (that's out of four), a road letdown at the buzzer vs. Pitt, which is 8-10 on the season and 118th in the NCAA's NET rankings. A game the Buckeyes should have had, certainly, but not considered a bad loss by those who select the NCAA Tournament field. On a neutral court, it would be, but not on the road where it remains Quad 2 and not Quad 3.
Ohio State has won each of its Quad 3 and 4 games and only lost that contest to the Panthers in Quad 2. Each of the Buckeyes' four other losses came in their four Quad 1 games. By the same token, however, they haven't won any Quad 1 games yet. They'll get two chances the next two weeks vs. the Wolverines and Badgers.
A high NET ranking of 36th is the other metric boosting Ohio State onto the right side bubble. The Buckeyes are one of the last four teams in the tournament, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi, and outrank each of the other three teams in that category from Lunardi: USC (48th), New Mexico (41st) and Texas (42nd).
CBS Sports' coalition of experts actually has Ohio State in a safer spot as a No. 10 seed. That's about the highest projection the Buckeyes are earning around the country. In total, they are projected to be in the NCAA Tournament by 58 of the 84 brackets aggregated by the Bracket Matrix, which averages them out to be the fifth-to-last team in.
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