Throw all the math at me you want. I'll either get it or I won't.
In this case, I don't get it. 12/16? The 16 is the number of non-TTUN teams that Ohio State can play. 12 is the number of teams that aren't out west? Then, I guess once you succeed that roll, there's 15 more teams, 11 of which aren't out west, and so on...?
Where's DBB?
Let's say your calculation is correct. (I'm not saying it is or isn't - this is one part of probability that I don't remember how to do.) That's saying that the "fucks in the league office" are being 100% random with the schedule, as far as who each team plays (not necessarily about home/away). (Also, I know that "random" doesn't have degrees - you can't have something that is "more random" than something else. Something is either random or it isn't. But.... I'm going to stick with saying "100% random.") So if it's a 27.2% chance of not playing out west, what are the chances of a team playing exactly 1 game out west? Or 2 games or 3 games or 4 games? I'm guessing that the fucks in the league office are skewing the schedules toward everyone playing 1 game out west, and away from 2 or 3 or 4 games. How great would it be if Penn State had to play 3 or 4 games out west?
Let's try this math:
With 4 teams out west, each averaging 4.5 home games, that's 18 games out west. Maybe 4 of those games are west on west action (A vs B, A vs C, B vs D, C vs D). So there are 14 more games to be played out west. There are 14 teams not out west. So, on average, each eastern team will play 1.0 games out west. They can add at most 2 more games for west vs west (A vs D and B vs C), leaving 12 more games to fill. That's still 0.857 games per east team to play out west.