College football realignment fallout: What's next with Texas, Oklahoma stating intent to leave Big 12 for SEC
Look for the Big Ten to make some moves -- quickly -- and TV networks to have their say
Big Ten is on the clock
With Texas and Oklahoma on board, the SEC will at least have the potential to pass the Big Ten as the No. 1 revenue conference.
That almost compels the Big Ten to act. Its teams earn more than $50 million per year between TV rights, Big Ten Network money, bowl payouts and NCAA Tournament revenues. Its media rights contracts expire next year, so even without adding teams, the Big Ten and its members are due for a windfall.
But which teams out there add "pro rata"? In other words, which teams are worth proportional value of $50 million-plus per year?
The biggest remaining chips on the realignment board are Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame and USC. The Buckeyes and Wolverines aren't going anywhere. Notre Dame has shown no indication of assimilating into the ACC permanently after playing there (successfully, mind you) in 2020 due to COVID-19.
It's conceivable the big cigars at USC, tired of the underachieving Pac-12, could be interested in joining the Big Ten. That gives the Trojans better access to the playoff and certainly more money.
Such a move would probably involve getting travel partners in Washington, Colorado and possibly Arizona State. That would bring the Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver and Phoenix markets into the Big Ten. What would UCLA and Oregon (and Nike) have to say about that?
Don't sweat the travel. Geography ceased to matter in realignment long ago. Think of a West Coast scheduling "pod" that could include USC, Washington, Colorado, Arizona State, Nebraska and Iowa.
That's the next potential blockbuster, at least comparable to what the SEC just did. That's a Big Ten with conceivably seven of the top 16 TV markets in the country stretching coast-to-coast. Before all this occurred, Rutgers was handed a document from the Big Ten during its assimilation into the league. It stated the league's per school revenue would be $67 million by 2027. Now try to imagine if the West Coast joined in.
Kevin Warren being a rookie commissioner who struggled to align the Big Ten around COVID-19, it's hard to envision such a massive move for the conference. But with Texas' interest in the SEC spurred by a powerful board of regents chair, there are powerful forces above commissioners that could make this happen.
The Left Coast seems vulnerable in a Big 12 sort of way. However, the Big Ten could instead turn the other direction and try to beat the SEC to the punch in terms of world domination by going after Clemson and Florida State.
A source told CBS Sports over the weekend that Clemson is absolutely committed to the ACC.
Would Kansas be on the Big Ten's short list? Believe it or not, football remains the primary revenue driver at KU. Its languishing football program might be a plus in realignment. Big Ten football is strong enough to absorb a team that would be an automatic W despite it subtracting from overall schedule strength. It would be a no-brainer because Jayhawks basketball is a historically great program.
Interesting note: In the last round of realignment, former Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany went after some combination of Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia. He settled for Maryland and Rutgers.
Delany brilliantly signed a short-term six-year TV deal that expires in 2022. With the Big Ten standing as the next major conference to renegotiate, will it sign a mini-extension to 2025 allowing its deal to sync up with those in the Big 12 if it wants to go after Kansas and/or Iowa State? Or will it take a giant swing and look West?
Warren was asked twice by CBS Sports over the weekend whether the SEC's move compelled the Big Ten to expand. He did not answer directly. "You could feel the ground in college athletics was going to shift," he said.
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