My take on this, and why I think Texas is a lock in the Big Ten:
Today is going to be the pivotal day, where everything goes down or at least the real dominoes begin to fall. It is expected Nebraska will be announcing at least their intention to join the Big Ten today. This is what everyone is waiting on. The Big XII can realistically sustain losing Colorado to the Pac-10. They could sustain losing Missouri. If Nebraska bolts, game over. It has been said for a long time Texas needs a change to be the last resort. I believe OB has become a UT propaganda outlet meant only to further the goal of an imminent move to the Big Ten for Texas. As stated in the post before, what they are doing directly allows them to buy time, create a public image of attempting to save the conference, and get out of this smelling good. I believe the Big Ten is heading to 14 and that 14 will include Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Texas.
Why you can't buy this Chip Brown / Orangebloods information:
After seriously thinking about this, it occurred to me that a Pac-16 as reported is just never going to happen. I believe that Larry Scott wants to expand his conference and will do just that. However, I don't think the usual suspects have changed for them. Colorado has been a name floated for eternity. Texas has as well. I believe that they want Texas, and I believe that for that to happen they would have to really bend over backwards to accommodate them. I think the only ounce of truth to any of this is that Texas probably floated this idea by them early on, but merely to play hard to get and weaken the Pac-10's ability to negotiate with them. The Pac-10 and the other five purported schools just do not fit together. Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would likely never receive consideration by the Pac-10--and they probably haven't still. The Pac-10 is more like us than the SEC, and we know we wouldn't do it. A&M and OU are SEC material. If they have the ability to join that conference and immediately begin to make more money than they do now in TV revenue, I believe they are going to take it. The Pac-10 will likely move beyond 11, but they will stick within the pacific / mountain regions to do it. We've brought this up over and over, and A&M brought it up again--it has become the football program's responsibility to carry the rest of the school's athletic programs. While increased projected revenue might sound nice, they are also looking at the red. Namely, they are looking at how ridiculously expensive it will be to compete in their conference in all of their non-revenue sports. By dividing the proposed Pac-16 the way that has been suggested, you really do have two conferences and you are going to see a lot of bickering back and forth. You have the original 8, and the new 8. All of it just stinks. It doesn't make any sense. It doesn't even seem plausible. I believe Chip was accurate in the beginning, but for whatever reason he is way off base now. Big XII schools care a little bit about football. The culture is just different in the Pac-10. I expect we aren't going to see any zebras or tigers change their strips in this expansion fiasco. Nobody is going somewhere that doesn't fit.
What is taking so long?
Notre Dame and Texas both need assistance to make the move. Both have to maintain face throughout this process and in the case of Texas, that will come by appearing to have done all they could but in the end it not being enough. In the case of Notre Dame, they need expansion by multiple conferences to create an illusion of the 16-team super conferences that people believe are coming. This will allow them to make a move under the guise of being preemptive and avoiding losing out on a chair when the music stops. I think the stakes are Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Texas--we couldn't have landed three other schools that fit what we currently have and add to our prowess any better. I think we're rounding third on this one, and we just need the dominoes to begin to fall once Nebraska makes their announcement. This should be an exciting weekend. Lets see what happens.
