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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

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bkochmc;960180; said:
I can't believe someone would pick Oklahoma over OSU... Jason King is a hack "writer". I'm done reading his articles.
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With my failed attempt at humor thrown aside...

I think Oklahoma does have the best shot of the current 1-loss teams. As BB73 said, LSU will most likely have to play South Carolina, Florida, or Kentucky again... all three teams gave them everything they wanted (and more in Kentucky's case). I also expect the winner of the Pac10 to have 2 losses... out of the top 5 (ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, USC) only Cal and Oregon have played each other. That's kind of how the Big10 is setting up... the top teams are playing each other at the end of the year. Should make for some good football watching in November.
 
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ShakerBuck said:
USF absolutely deserves their ranking at this point.

they beat West Virginia as well as Auburn on the road.

and i think if they win out, their strength of schedule will hold up.

they still have yet to play Rutgers (4-2) Uconn (5-1) UC (6-1) Louisville (4-3)
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I'm really really really not hating on USF when I say this. It's purely in the interest of accurate reporting.

BUT

Beating WVU is not that much of an accomplishment. They are nothing special this year.
 
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i see tOSU have one of the better chances at staying undefeated, although, watch out for boston college, as i have looked at their schedule, and the toughest i see them playing is VT. so, maybe a tOSU-BC national championship game.....?
 
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BuckeyeNation27;960240; said:
I'm really really really not hating on USF when I say this. It's purely in the interest of accurate reporting.

BUT

Beating WVU is not that much of an accomplishment. They are nothing special this year.
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They are superior to any team that we have played so far. To this point, our most impressive wins are over: 1) Purdue (who TSUN hung 48 on) and 2) Wash (2-4)
 
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bkochmc;960227; said:
With my failed attempt at humor thrown aside...

I think Oklahoma does have the best shot of the current 1-loss teams. As BB73 said, LSU will most likely have to play South Carolina, Florida, or Kentucky again... all three teams gave them everything they wanted (and more in Kentucky's case). I also expect the winner of the Pac10 to have 2 losses... out of the top 5 (ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, USC) only Cal and Oregon have played each other. That's kind of how the Big10 is setting up... the top teams are playing each other at the end of the year. Should make for some good football watching in November.
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On the Big Ten Note:

The Big Ten has 9 teams within striking distance for a bowl bid. Isn't that just absurd? I mean, if you were to ignore the medias ideas on the Big Ten, to put it simply: This has been a great season to be a Big Ten fan. And the best is still to come.

Ohio State
vs. Michigan State October 20th
at Penn State October 27th
vs. Wisconsin November 3rd
vs. Illinois November 10th
at Michigan November 17th

Michigan
at Illinois October 20th
at Michigan State November 3rd
at Wisconsin November 10th
vs. Ohio State November 17th

Illinois
vs. Michigan October 20th
at Ohio State November 10th

Penn State
at Indiana October 20th
vs. Ohio State October 27th
vs. Purdue November 3rd
at Michigan State November 17th

Wisconsin
vs. Indiana October 27th
at Ohio State November 3rd
vs. Michigan November 10th

Indiana
vs. Penn State October 20th
at Wisconsin October 27th
vs. Purdue November 17th

Michigan State
at Ohio State October 20th
vs. Michigan November 3rd
at Purdue November 10th
vs. Penn State November 17th

Purdue
at Penn State November 3rd
vs. Michigan State November 10th
at Indiana November 17th

Oh yeah, and Northwestern is 4-3 with a game against Eastern Michigan this week. That will, hopefully, put them at 5-3. Then, they just need to win at Purdue, vs. Iowa, vs. Indiana, or at Illinois and BOOM! Bowl eligibility.

So yeah, 9 teams that could be going to bowls from the Big Ten. Michigan has a gimme against Minnesota, Illinois has a gimme against Ball State, Penn State has a gimme against Temple, Wisconsin has a gimme against Northern Illinois, Indiana has a gimme against Ball State, Michigan State doesn't have a gimme (Their best chance for a win is obv. against Iowa), and Purdue doesn't have a gimme (Best chance is obv. against Iowa).

So yeah, wow. Great football to be played in November. Whatever happens in the next 5 weeks will decide if Ohio State goes to the National Championship Game, who goes to Capital One, who goes to Outback, etc. etc. etc. Huge games for the conference overall.

Imagine if the conference has a winning bowl record this year. What would the media say then?
 
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ShakerBuck said:
They are superior to any team that we have played so far. To this point, our most impressive wins are over: 1) Purdue (who TSUN hung 48 on) and 2) Wash (2-4)
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*sigh*

Every time I try to say this, people go to the "They're better than anybody OSU has played!!!!!!!"

1. That is irrelevant.
2. No they aren't. They = Purdue....and anybody with a good defense can shut them down.
 
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MililaniBuckeye;960435; said:
Ball State is no gimme for a mid-tier team...just ask Nebraska.
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I did. They were embarrassed when I asked the question and fired their athletic director.

sandgk;960459; said:
daveeb - when you've got a spare moment away from your studies - why don't you figure out how many of those Big10 bowl eligible probables are really likely to appear so at the end of the season. Think of it as a simple min-max analysis.
Here are the possible bowl game alignments for the Big Ten this year.
That won't help you with the min-max answer, but it is interesting nonetheless.
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That kinda makes the Big Ten season more interesting. 9 teams with 8 spots open, if we get two teams in the BCS. If we only get one team in the BCS, then there would only be 7 spots open. With 9 teams competing, it would make the ending of the Big Ten season intense for the lower tier teams. It would be a conference bowl game race. The final spot could be decided by the last week of the Big Ten season.
 
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Zurp;959787; said:
I'm not either, even if the remaining opponents were a combined 10-25. Too much of the BCS formula is human voters, and with the way they operate, an undefeated number one team won't drop below another team with one or more loss.
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The computers still have as much or more power than the humans because of the way the points are calculated (all or nothing with the computers, percentages with the humans).
 
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methomps;960563; said:
The computers still have as much or more power than the humans because of the way the points are calculated (all or nothing with the computers, percentages with the humans).
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Any way to make that more explicit with an example?

On the face of it, 2/3rds of the BCS comes from two human polls, the remainder from the average of 6 computer polls (throw out low, throw out high).

Now, that still sounds like the weighting for the Intel chips is 33.33%.
 
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sandgk;960565; said:
Any way to make that more explicit with an example?

On the face of it, 2/3rds of the BCS comes from two human polls, the remainder from the average of 6 computer polls (throw out low, throw out high).

Now, that still sounds like the weighting for the Intel chips is 33.33%.
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I use the electoral analogy out of laziness. It is not exactly how the BCS works, but it illustrates the concept just fine. If anyone wants a concrete example using BCS numbers, I will put that together some other time.

Think of the electoral college. Ohio has 20 electoral votes. Under the traditional method, whichever candidate gets the most votes gets all 20 electoral votes. That is sort of how each individual computer works. Whoever is first gets 25 points. Whoever is second gets 24, whether they are .0001 or .1 away from 1st place.

Now, some people have proposed changing the electoral system so that votes are given out in proportion to how many actual votes a candidate gets. Thus, if Candidate A got 60% of the votes in Ohio, he would get 12 of Ohio's electoral votes. Say the other 40% of Ohio votes voted for Candidate B. Candidate B would get 8 electoral votes. This is sort of how the human polls are calculated.

Now imagine that you have a country with three states: Coaches, Harris, and Computers. Coaches and Harris proportion their electoral votes. Computers is all or nothing. Each has 20 electoral votes.

Candidate A gets 60% of the votes in Coaches and Harris, and 49% of the votes in Computers. 12 (Coaches) + 12 (Harris) + 0 (Computers) = 24

Candidate B gets 40% of the votes in Coaches and Harris, and 51% of the votes in Computers. 8 (Coaches) + 8 (Harris) + 20 (Computers) = 36

I give you your new President, Candidate B.
 
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Damn, hanging chads pervade the BCS!

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